Austin, Vipin and I welcome friends from the MIT Security Studies Program, Taylor Fravel and Caitlin Talmadge, to discuss China once again. This time, we focus on two oft-cited rationales for China’s nuclear build-up—the desire to improve the survivability of its nuclear forces, and the potential to use a larger nuclear forces as a fullback for regional coercion/aggression. Our guests help explain China’s motivations, the looming Taiwan scenarios, what is happening in China’s non-nuclear forces, and Taiwan’s own capabilities and attitudes regarding a conflict. Our conversation moves beyond just nuclear weapons and into the political relationship, China’s historical approach to Taiwan, competition outside of the nuclear arena, and the relevance of the broader U.S. strategy toward China to these nuclear questions.

We also talk about the ability for the United States to compete in military domains that help set back the most concerning military scenarios with China, and keep the threshold for nuclear use high if a conflict was to begin. The group also discusses the limitations China may face in improving and modernizing its nuclear weapons capabilities to support a possible sea change in its approach to nuclear strategy, and whether China could become more transparent about its nuclear forces as the buildup continues, or if we’re going to hear about more new and modern windmills instead.

Please feel free to send us your thoughts, comments, and questions on this topic in the replies or via email, as we’re definitely going to record a Part III in the near future and are open to suggested topics. Until then, enjoy the pod.

Intro/outro music licensed by Soundstripe: “The Iron Curtain” by Wicked Cinema.

Recording and edits through Riverside.fm.

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