RenMac discusses why the latest payroll print will not provide comfort to the Fed, why employment is slowing as the economy is ramping up, why China charts are looking better than their economic reports, whether the 2024 election will resemble 2020 or 2016, how Manchin’s third-party threat could help rather than hurt Biden-s re-election, the politics surrounding the Fitch downgrade, and the Japanese yen trade following the BoJ pivot.

RenMac discusses the bullish GDP data, receding recession risk, knowing what you don’t know, the low odds of pulling off two soft-landings, how relying on doubtful data and rigidity has led to capitulation, precision vs. accuracy, Mitch McConnell’s health, the increased impeachment inquiry odds following the Hunter Biden plea deal collapse, why extreme beta is more likely to be a liability than in asset, and keeping an eye on the yen.

RenMac discusses how to adjust the different economic outlook scenarios based on recent data, why a third-party candidate would pull more votes away from Biden, how Biden’s green push is costing him the support of autoworkers (and Springsteen a song), and the risks of betting on beta.

RenMac discusses how the latest inflation report will take pressure off the Fed and increases the odds of a soft landing, why bull steepening is more of a recession signal than an inverted yield curve, why markets reacted accordingly, whether Bidenomics will help or hurt inflation and Biden’s re-election effort.

Renmac discuss why our elevated yield impact model and seasonality favors keeping some dry powder, but not the same type found in the White House this week. How cocaine-gate is overshadowing the “Bidenomics” push? Why the latest payroll print shows no signs of recession and is unlikely to prevent the Fed from hiking two more times this year? All in today’s episode.

The RenMac team discusses Neil’s ten-year anniversary trip and why he feels there will be no recession, the durable strength of the consumer, why the Fed may not deliver the shock needed for the bears, why cyclicals are consistent with a bull market, and the odd situation in Russia.

The RenMac team discusses Powell’s performance before lawmakers, why the Fed may be offsides on housing and economic growth, data still supporting a housing trifecta, how a presidential election could complicate future Fed moves, the politics of the Hunter Biden plea deal, and why utilities and BBB spreads are supporting a bullish outlook.

The RenMac team discusses the market response to the Fed pause, why the risk for the Fed is taking their feet off the brakes too soon, receding recession risk, contained credit spreads, and the growing threat of a September spending shutdown in Congress.

The RenMac team discusses the labor market, the gravitation towards beta, looking for contraction in BBB spreads, the growing Republican rift on defense spending, the politics and the precedent of the latest Trump indictment, market incrementalism towards cyclicality.

The RenMac team discusses whether the strong payrolls number will impact the Fed, why a June skip is still likely, the winners and losers of the debt limit debate, why semiconductors are a winner in the stock market, and bullish conditions in the market cycle clock for a new month.