nMac talks about sentiment, it’s faults and features, what could go right, the valuation problem, why bonds are attractive, next week’s jobs number, and the latest on government spending bill.

Renmac discusses the Fed’s neutral rate, persistent strength in employment, Neil’s personal microcosm of housing, the potential for a government shutdown, real rates and the implicit message behind Biden’s persistent gaffs.

RenMac highlights Larry Sabato’s higher than consensus’ odds of R’s taking the Senate, the 100 vs 75bps debate, implications of $FDX news, relative performance of discretionary vs staples, importance of claims data, an historical indication of peaking 10yr yields and Pavlick’s travel suspiciously coinciding w/ PSU schedule.

The RenMac team discusses Queen Elizabeth’s legacy, why Biden is leaving Trump’s China tariffs in place, markets pricing in 150bps over the next three Fed meetings, labor market remaining hot, why the market cycle clock is tilting bullish, and how Rs are looking good to take the House but things are looking better for Ds to hold on to the Senate.

The RenMac team discusses how the U.S. economy is not slowing down and what that means for the Fed moving forward, Biden’s political speech aimed at motivating the Democratic base ahead of the midterms, why the student loan aid announcement may not come to fruition, how companies may be overpaying for workers based on productivity levels, why the June low has a high probability of being the low for the cycle, and whether growing bearish sentiment is warranted.

Neil and Jeff talk about the wages, housing, market momentum, trouble with forward guidance and the upcoming Fed meeting.

The RenMac team discusses Neil’s recent trip to Vegas, Democrats improved political standing, Bullard’s motives and message, how this housing recession is different, momentum signals in the market, and the challenge in looking for sector leadership.

Biden’s 0% inflation victory lap, better/worse vs good/bad, momentum is unusually strong and bullish, how the Mar Largo raid increases odds of Trump candidacy, and the decline productivity from Neil’s trip to Vegas.

The RenMac team discusses how the employment report cements a 75 bps move for the Fed and increases the odds of a hard landing, why the short-term curve should be steeper, whether jobs are a lagging indicator, recent political winds blowing in favor of Democrats, how the contraction in rates is impacting equities, and sentiment’s relationship with momentum and the impact on trend.

The RenMac team discusses how Schumer outmaneuvered McConnell on the reconciliation package, Powell’s pivot to a pause vs. cut, SPX 20-day high signal, markets misreading the Fed, futures suggesting a kink in the curve, a slow bleed recession on the horizon, and debating the distinction between a slowdown and a recession.