RenMac

By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen PavlickBusiness Investing

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Typical duration
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RenMac episodes

August 12, 2022 RenMac Off-Script: A Summer of Skeptics
Biden’s 0% inflation victory lap, better/worse vs good/bad, momentum is unusually strong and bullish, how the Mar Largo raid increases odds of Trump candidacy, and the decline productivity from Neil’s trip to Vegas.
14 min
August 05, 2022 RenMac Off-Script: Higher Highs and Lower Lows
The RenMac team discusses how the employment report cements a 75 bps move for the Fed and increases the odds of a hard landing, why the short-term curve should be steeper, whether jobs are a lagging indicator, recent political winds blowing in favor of Democrats, how the contraction in rates is impacting equities, and sentiment’s relationship with momentum and the impact on trend.
17 min
July 29, 2022 RenMac Off-Script: Slowdown vs. Recession
The RenMac team discusses how Schumer outmaneuvered McConnell on the reconciliation package, Powell’s pivot to a pause vs. cut, SPX 20-day high signal, markets misreading the Fed, futures suggesting a kink in the curve, a slow bleed recession on the horizon, and debating the distinction between a slowdown and a recession.
20 min
July 22, 2022 RenMac Off-Script: European Blowback Hits U.S.
The RenMac team discusses Jeff’s desire for more tattoos, Biden’s climate emergency non-declaration, the political impact of Biden getting COVID, how the European blowback is starting to impact the U.S., why markets might be wrong about the Fed’s reaction function, the market rally this past week, why we continue to prefer defensives over cyclicals, and why the ECB is more likely to make a policy mistake than the Fed.
15 min
July 15, 2022 RenMac Off-Script: Staring into the Abyss
The RenMac team discusses a new record-high inflation report and whether 100bps is more likely, Powell latching to lagging indicators, is core services next, new Fed members impact on future rate decisions, markets looking beyond inflation to a recession, Biden's Saudi oil boost ask, and Manchin rules out tax hikes and climate bills in latest BBB talks.
14 min
July 08, 2022 RenMac Off-Script: The Fed’s Hall of Mirrors
The RenMac team discusses the latest jobs report and why it might embolden the Fed to go 75bps, whether employment is the best indicator of a potential recession, yield curve peaking, tightening credit conditions, why the inflation rate may be the new Fed put as opposed to the stock market, Scuhmer’s resurrection of Ds’ reconciliation bill, and Biden’s battles with billionaires over his energy and economic policies.
16 min
July 01, 2022 RenMac Off-Script: Recession Preferable To Inflation
The RenMac team discusses Powell’s preference for a recession rather than an inflation policy mistake, the Fed’s preferred PCE measure running much lower than CPI, reading the reaction function of the Fed, the potential for a political pause or a lower rate hike pre-Midterm, a Supreme Court setback for ESG investors, handicapping the 2022 midterms, and why healthcare remains a good defensive play.
15 min
June 24, 2022 RenMac Off-Script: Fed Up With The Fed
The RenMac team discusses if the Fed is cherry picking data, moderating growth, gas tax politics and prospects, keying in on core PCE, and Powell dismissing Russian invasion as the main driver of inflation.
11 min
June 17, 2022 RenMac Off-Script: Powell Panics
Jeff, Neil and Steve discuss the 75bps move as some signs of easing inflation present themselves. The team also discusses the political challenges of inflation, the upcoming Humphrey Hawkins Testimony, market’s message regarding inflation and the lack of capitulative signals in the market.
18 min
June 10, 2022 RenMac Off-Script: Inflation: Peak or Plateau?
Neil and Steve discuss the latest CPI number, what Powell may say and not say next week, the inverse correlation between Biden’s approval ratings and inflation, and the politics of the Jan. 6th hearings.
12 min

About RenMac

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Stock market commentary from Wall St thought leaders in strategy, economics, technical analysis and policy. Disclaimer ..........

This Podcast Audio Show has been prepared by Renaissance Macro…

Research, LLC (“RenMac”), an affiliate of Renaissance Macro Securities, LLC.

This Podcast Audio Show is for distribution only as may be permitted by law. It is published solely for information purposes; it is not an advertisement nor is it a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments or to participate in any particular trading strategy. No representation or warranty, either express or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in this document. The information is not intended to be a complete statement or summary of the markets, economy or other developments referred to in the Podcast Audio Show. Any opinions expressed in this Podcast Audio Show may change without notice. Any statements contained in this Podcast Audio Show attributed to a third party represent RenMac's interpretation of the data, information and/or opinions provided by that third party either publicly or through a subscription service, and such use and interpretation have not been reviewed by the third party.

Nothing in this Podcast Audio Show constitutes a representation that any investment strategy or recommendation is suitable or appropriate to an investor’s individual circumstances or otherwise constitutes a personal recommendation. Investments involve risks, and investors should exercise prudence and their own judgment in making their investment decisions. The value of any investment may decline due to factors affecting the securities markets generally or particular industries. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither RenMac nor any of its directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss (including investment loss) or damage arising out of the use of all or any of the information.

Any information stated in this Podcast Audio Show is for information purposes only and does not represent valuations for individual securities or other financial instruments. Different assumptions by RenMac or any other source may yield substantially different results. The analysis contained in this document is based on numerous assumptions and are not all inclusive.

Copyright © Renaissance Macro Research, LLC. 2019. All rights reserved. All material presented in this Podcast Audio Show, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright to Renaissance Macro Research, LLC. None of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, or transmitted to or distributed to any other party, without the prior express written permission of Renaissance Marco Research, LLC.