Is Putin’s offer to continue adherence to New START central limits for one more year a “cost free virtue signal,” a sincere desire to manage nuclear competition, an opening to a broader conversation on strategic issues, or maybe a combination of all of these things. Additionally, what U.S. interests are at play in considering this offer? Austin and I had a great conversation with two of the top experts in the arms control policy discourse, Mike Albertson and John Warden, to try and answer these questions among others.

We debate the various responses the United States could craft, the relevance of future U.S. nuclear posture adjustments to the question of maintaining New START limits for one more year, the state of New START today without verification activities, data exchanges or regular notifications, and China and trilateral arms control.

Mike and John help us dig into how the U.S. government usually organizes itself to analyze an arms control, the questions senior officials and experts are probably asking, and hopefully trying to answer, and how the United States may respond. We discuss the importance of ending New START on a “good note” to preserve arms control between the two countries and pave the way to future agreements, including ones that manage competition between the two countries and help shape future force posture decisions on each side. The Ukraine war looms large still today, and we talk about how that may play into considerations of Russia’s offer as well as other sources of leverage in arms control negotiations.

Throughout the conversation, the one area of agreement that surfaces is that all four of us think the United States needs to make a counter proposal to Putin’s offer, using the next four months to engage in a serious arms control policy process to establish U.S. priorities and consider how to engage Russian counterparts. We’ll have to see whether U.S. officials feel the same way and Russia is willing to use this offer as a starting point for that conversation, as opposed to accepting a fait accompli.

Intro/outro music licensed by Soundstripe: “The Iron Curtain” by Wicked Cinema.

Recording and edits through Riverside.fm.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit strategicsimplicity.substack.com