Welcome to the ongoing mini-series The Orthogonal Bet. Hosted by ⁠Samuel Arbesman⁠, a Complexity Scientist, Author, and Scientist in Residence at Lux Capital.

In this episode, Sam delves into the recent CrowdStrike/Microsoft outage, providing insights on how to understand this event through the lens of complexity science. The episode was inspired by Sam's very timely post in the Atlantic: "What the Microsoft Outage Reveals"

Join us as Sam answers Producer Christopher Gates’ questions, exploring the intricate web of factors that led to this global system failure and offering a unique perspective on navigating and preventing such crises in the future.

Produced by ⁠⁠⁠Christopher Gates⁠⁠⁠

Music by ⁠⁠⁠George Ko⁠⁠⁠ & Suno

Welcome to the ongoing mini-series The Orthogonal Bet. Hosted by Samuel Arbesman, a Complexity Scientist, Author, and Scientist in Residence at Lux Capital.

In this episode, Sam speaks with Kristoffer Tjalve. Kristoffer is hard to categorize, and in the best possible way. However, if one had to provide a description, it could be said that he is a curator and impresario of a burgeoning online community that celebrates the “quiet, odd, and poetic web.”

What does this phrase mean? It can mean a lot, but it basically refers to anything that is the opposite of the large, corporate, and bland version of the Internet most people use today. The web that Kristoffer seeks out and tries to promote is playful, small, weird, and deeply human. Even though these features might have been eclipsed by social media and the current version of online experiences, this web—which feels like a throwback to the earlier days of the Internet—is still out there, and Kristoffer works to help cultivate it. He does this through a newsletter, an award, an event, and more.

Produced by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Christopher Gates⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Music by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠George Ko⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ & Suno

The media world has been rocked by artificial intelligence, labor strife, the creator economy, the decimation of business models and so much more. But sometimes it's not collapse and crisis that's the most interesting story, but rather just another day of a assiduously growing a platform. That's the story I want to talk about today on risk gaming, and we're going to zoom in on Medium. It's a venerable media business founded by Ev Williams all the way back in 2012. And one that has become notorious for its pivoting dance to a brighter media future. But under Tony Stubblebine who became CEO two years ago. The company has reached cash flow break even, and he believes Medium has found a balanced business and media model for the decade ahead. I wanted to learn more, so let's dive in.

Produced by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Christopher Gates⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Music by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠George Ko⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Hello and welcome to the ongoing miniseries The Orthogonal Bet

Hosted by Samuel Arbesman, Complexity Scientist, Author, and Scientist in Residence at Lux Capital

In this episode, Samuel speaks with Alice Albrecht, the founder and CEO of Recollect, a startup in the AI and tools for thought space. Alice, trained in cognitive neuroscience, has had a long career in machine learning and artificial intelligence.

Samuel wanted to talk to Alice because of her extensive experience in AI, machine learning, and cognitive science. She has studied brains, witnessed the hype cycles in AI, and excels at discerning the reality from the noise in the field. Alice shares her wisdom on the nature of artificial intelligence, the current excitement surrounding it, and the related domain of computational tools for thinking. She also provides unique perspectives on artificial intelligence.

Episode Produced by ⁠Christopher Gates⁠

Music by ⁠George Ko⁠ & Suno

If we had to rebuild American politics to be more positive, could we do it? And what would a positive or even optimistic politics look like? What would be its program, and how could we all be galvanized to join in a world and at a time when it seems as though every day brings another dampener to human enthusiasm? Those are just some of the questions that James Pethokoukis approaches in his recent book, The Conservative Futurist.

James emphasizes that optimism and pessimism don’t exist on the traditional left-right axis of political analysis (named for the seating arrangement of politicians during the French Revolution). Instead, he divides the world into an “up wing” — people who believe in expanding the bounds of human ingenuity — and those who belong to a “down wing,” which might be simply summarized as degrowthers and others who see limits in all aspects of science, technology and the human condition.

James and I talk about his book, and then I quiz him on just how realistic his futurism is. Is his vision actually possible, or is it the sort of slapstick fantastical science fiction that is great as entertainment but has long since died out as a way to govern? He’s got better evidence marshaled than I expected, and you can be the judge if optimism can guide your thoughts.

Produced by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Christopher Gates⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Music by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠George Ko⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Welcome to The Orthogonal Bet, an ongoing mini-series that explores the unconventional ideas and delightful patterns that shape our world.

Hosted by Samuel Arbesman, Complexity Scientist, Author, and Scientist in Residence at Lux Capital.

In this episode, Samuel speaks with Philip Ball, a science writer, and formerly a longtime editor at the science journal Nature. Philip is the author of the fantastic new book “How Life Works: A User’s Guide to the New Biology.”

Samuel wanted to talk to Philip because he loved this book. It’s fascinating and deeply provocative, even for someone with a PhD in computational biology—though Samuel’s might be a bit worn and out of date—and yet he still learned so much. The book examines how new advances in our understanding of biology have led scientists to understand that life is far less deterministic than we might imagine. For example, cells are not really machines, as some might have thought, but complex and messy yet robust systems. And while DNA and genes are important, there is so much more going on, from the processes that give rise to the shape of our limbs and our bodies, to how all of this can have implications for rethinking medicine and disease.

Produced by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Christopher Gates⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Music by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠George Ko⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ & Suno

2024 is the year of democracy, with more than half of the world’s population voting in elections across India and Indonesia to the European Union, United Kingdom and  United States. Underneath the usual campaign slogans and stump speeches though is a crucial set of enabling technologies that are increasingly under attack, diminishing the will of voters and raising very challenging geotechnology questions for governments in the years ahead.

That’s why I am excited to bring back the Riskgaming (née “Securities”) podcast’s very first guest, Scott Bade, back on to the show as we approach our centennial episode. Scott is geotechnology analyst at Eurasia Group and has been tracking the rising threats to the world’s technological infrastructure and their implications for global politics.

We cover several dozen topics in the show, but focus on three big ones: the killing of TikTok in New Caledonia and what it says about France’s commitment to free speech as Azerbaijan (of all countries) attempts to undermine French democracy. We then zoom in on subsea cables, data centers and AI training, and why there’s been so much more competition in their construction. Finally, we talk about the Global South, and the lack of a new development path for countries in the AI era. Add in some chaos engineering, hybrid warfare, water politics, and the future of Disneyland’s Hall of Presidents and you’ll be demanding an Orthogonal Bet episode just to palette cleanse.

Produced by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Christopher Gates⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Music by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠George Ko⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

In this episode, Sam speaks with Ben Reinhardt, an engineer, scientist, and the founder of a new research organization called Speculative Technologies.

Ben is obsessed with building an open-ended and exciting future for humanity. After spending time in academia, government, startups, and even venture capital, he set out to build a new type of research organization—Speculative Technologies—that helps to create new technologies and innovations in materials and manufacturing, acting as a sort of industrial lab for these public goods in order to make a positive vision of the future more likely.

There is a lot of optimism and excitement in this episode. The discussion covers the need for new types of research funding and research institutions, why it can be hard for startups to do research, Ben’s vision of the future—and his science fiction inspiration—the ways in which technological innovation happens, why he started Speculative Technologies, and much more.

The Orthogonal Bet is an ongoing miniseries of the Riskgaming podcast that explores the unconventional ideas and delightful patterns that shape our world hosted by ⁠Samuel Arbesman⁠, complexity scientist, author, and Scientist-in-Residence at ⁠Lux Capital⁠.

Produced by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Christopher Gates⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Music by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠George Ko⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ & Suno

Another week, another media tempest in a shrinking tea cup. This time, the internet’s ire centered on Perplexity AI, a startup that offers a layer on top of LLM models that can answer real-time questions about current events. The company got into hot water after it summarized a paywalled Forbes article on Eric Schmidt and his investments in drones with minimal citations. Was this simply fair use summarization of an enterprising investigative article, or something more nefarious and damaging?

We brought a troika of journalists (and former journalists) to talk about the controversy and its implications. First up, Reed Albergotti is technology editor at Semafor and a long-time journalist across The Washington Post, The Information, The Wall Street Journal and elsewhere. Second, Eric Newcomer departed Bloomberg after a distinguished reporting career to start Newcomer, a tech newsletter that’s now complemented by the prominent Cerebral Valley AI conference coming this week in NYC. Finally, host Danny Crichton was formerly managing editor at TechCrunch.

We talk about the norms of journalism and creative work, the economic disruption of creativity by AI, how journalists should adapt to the coming automated world, how legislation might protect these industries and whether the regulatory approach fits the world’s needs, and finally, the limits of knowledge and how much AI still doesn’t know.

Produced by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Christopher Gates⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Music by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠George Ko⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

The Orthogonal Bet is an ongoing miniseries of the Riskgaming podcast that explores the unconventional ideas and delightful patterns that shape our world hosted by Samuel Arbesman, complexity scientist, author, and Scientist-in-Residence at Lux Capital.

In this episode, Sam speaks with game designer and researcher Chaim Gingold, the author of the fantastic new book Building SimCity: How to Put the World in a Machine.

As is probably clear from the title, this new book is about the creation of SimCity, but it’s also about much more than that: it’s about the deep prehistory and ideas that went into the game — from system dynamics to cellular automata — as well as a broader history of Maxis, the company behind SimCity. Chaim previously worked with SimCity’s creator Will Wright on the game Spore, where he designed the Spore Creature Creator. Because of this, Chaim’s deep knowledge of Maxis, his access to the folks there, and his excitement about SimCity and everything around it makes him the perfect person to have written this book.

In this episode, Sam and Chaim discuss Chaim’s experience at Maxis, the uniqueness of SimCity, early 90’s gaming, the rise and fall of Maxis, Will Wright and his role translating scientific ideas for a general audience, and much more.

Produced by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Christopher Gates⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Music by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠George Ko⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ & Suno