Sir Niall Ferguson, Milbank Family Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution and columnist at The Free Press, reveals how geography and choke points have always been pivotal in global conflicts and just like the Dardanelles during WWI, today’s hotspots like the Straits of Hormuz and Taiwan remind us that some strategic challenges never change. What exactly are chokepoints and why do they matter? How do the lessons of Gallipoli and Ukraine apply to the war with Iran? How is the current situation different from the Tanker War and WWI? Can naval and air power alone open the Strait of Hormuz and keep it open? Is there a timeline for success? And what does this all mean for U.S. magazine depth, the economy, and China?

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Times

02:49 Gallipoli

11:08 Unintended consequences     

18:10 Ukraine

26:22 A failure of perception

31:36 The right call by Trump? 

37:34 Regime alteration

47:05 Timeframes

53:33 China

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Zineb Riboua, research fellow with Hudson Institute’s Center for Peace and
Security in the Middle East, joins the show to talk about the ongoing U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, focusing on China's interests and involvement. How dependent is China on the region's energy resources? How does China project power in the Middle East and in Africa? Is China benefiting or suffering from the current war? What are the geopolitical and strategic considerations for both Beijing and D.C.?

Times
02:19 Going badly for China
06:24 Specific military goals
07:47 China & the Middle East
12:44 Iranian Oil
15:34 Layers
18:12 Trump and Xi
22:54 Conditions in the Strait of Hormuz
26:46 Best case/worst case scenarios
29:42 Russia and Africa
33:36 Strategic revenge

Ray Takeyh, senior fellow for Middle East studies at the Council on Foreign Relations and author of The Last Shah: America, Iran, and the Fall of the Pahlavi Dynasty, joins the show to talk about the origins, evolution, and possible future of the Islamic Republic of Iran. What forces produced the 1979 revolution, and how did it reshape Iran’s political and religious order? What are the psychological and sociological impacts of this revolution? How have the regime’s leaders interpreted and sustained the revolutionary project, and what have the major challenges been? As Iran enters a new and uncertain phase under Mojtaba Khamenei, can the Islamic Republic endure, or is there a potential for future revolution in Iran?

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Times

02:07 Living through the Islamic Revolution

04:12 A diverse Iran     

05:50 How did the revolution succeed? 

14:06 Khomeini & Khamenei

20:46 Too cautious 

22:35 Dynastic succession  

34:00 Iran vs. Venezuela

38:35 Regime resiliency 

44:30 Beginning of the end  

50:14 Threshold states

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Mark Montgomery, senior director of the Center on Cyber and Technology Innovation at FDD and retired U.S. Navy rear admiral, joins the show to provide in-depth analysis of the Iran conflict. Mark gives his thoughts on naval operations in the Strait of Hormuz, including their strategic implications for the progress of the war. He also discusses drone warfare, missile defense, and the broader geopolitical context. Mark also explains how Ukraine and Russia are playing growing parts in the war.

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Times

02:30 A constant menace

07:34 Radar and THAAD     

11:06 Hormuz

20:26 Real deterrence 

31:36 Russian targeting 

38:38 Conservation of resources  

46:03 Life at sea

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General Kenneth “Frank” McKenzie Jr,  USMC (ret.), commanded US Central Command from 2019-2022. Gen. McKenzie led a distinguished 42 year career in the US Marine Corps, commanding at multiple levels and serving on the Joint Staff. In this in-depth conversation, General McKenzie shares his insights on the recent U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran, strategic mistakes by Iran, and the prospects for regime change. He gives a full breakdown of Iran's military capabilities, regional dynamics, and possible future scenarios.

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Times

03:45 Iranian response 

07:40 Ballistic missiles     

19:06 Defeating drones

22:20 Soleimani

30:31 Iranian miscalculation 

32:48 War was never inevitable  

36:18 Outcomes

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Fred Kagan, senior fellow and director of the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute, joins the show to discuss the war, what Ukraine can do to help the Gulf with drone defense, and the future of the Islamic Republic.

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01:51 Updates

03:29 Iranian strikes 

09:15 Munitions crisis    

14:28 Innovation

18:45 Isolated and weak

25:12 Arming the opposition

30:55 A dangerous game 

36:22 10/7 

40:21 Turkey

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Mike Doran, senior fellow and director of the Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East at the Hudson Institute, joins the show to bring us the latest breakdown on the war and how long this may go on.

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Times

01:52 Where are things going?

05:45 Rational strikes 

09:56 A weakened positioned   

16:33 Lasting change

20:13 What comes next?

26:40 Regional war

30:28 Integration 

38:30 The Decider 

47:32 Futures 

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Mark Dubowitz, CEO of FDD, joins the show to bring us up to speed on the rapidly developing full-scale conflict between the United States-Israel and Iran.

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Times

01:19 Iranian leaders targeted 

04:48 10/7 roots 

07:39 Ambitious war aims  

12:41 Scope

15:59 Regime change

20:11 Iranian response

23:42 Playing with fire

28:13 Partnership

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Yossi Cohen, served as the director of the Mossad from 2016 until 2021 and is the author of The Sword of Freedom: Israel, Mossad, and the Secret War. As director, he personally orchestrated some of the Mossad’s most daring operations, such as the seizure of the Iranian nuclear archives—the exposure of which was among the main factors behind the United States’ withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal—and clandestine activity all over the world.

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Times

01:27 Joining the Mossad

16:02 Serving behind the lines 

26:31 Recruitment  

32:45 HUMINT

39:50 Deciding to strike

44:36 Iran 

49:51 Moral conflicts

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Behnam Ben Taleblu, Senior Director (Iran Program) and Senior Fellow at FDD, joins the show to talk about the build-up of American military power in the Middle East and what it might mean for Iran and the Iranian regime.

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Times

02:04 U.S. build-up

05:46 Timing 

11:08 “Decisive and different”  

24:41 Iranian retaliation

30:03 Targets

35:25 Ideology of the Supreme Leader 

41:36 A Trump JCPOA

45:46 Regime change by air

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