Security Dilemma

Washington loves the F-35 and hates the A-10. Why? Join us as we dig up a struggle that has roots in the earliest days of air power and turns on fundamental questions: what is an air force for? How should we purchase, assess, and retire aircraft? What are the politics behind these decisions?  Join us as we hear from Dan Grazier, Senior Defense Policy Fellow at the Project on Government Oversight and a veteran of the United States Marine Corps, on these two jets.   

You can read more of Dan's work here: https://www.pogo.org/about/people/dan-grazier 

FM 100-20 (July 1943) is here: https://www.ibiblio.org/hyperwar/USA/ref/FM/FM100-20/index.html  

The Key West Agreement (1948) is here: https://cgsc.contentdm.oclc.org/digital/collection/p4013coll11/id/729/ 

The F-35 economic impact page is here. https://www.f35.com/f35/about/economic-impact.html

Nancy Pelosi's recent visit to Taiwan got a furious reaction from China, which held major military exercises around the island and fired ballistic missiles. These incidents highlighted a broader trend: China's military is growing in power, while the United States has been engaging more and more openly with Taiwan. Is the status quo falling apart? Are Washington and Beijing on the road to war? Can Taiwan defend itself? We spoke to Michael Swaine of the Quincy Institute about these critical questions.  Swaine is among the authors of Active Denial, a recent study of U.S. defense posture in Asia. https://quincyinst.org/report/active-denial-a-roadmap-to-a-more-effective-stabilizing-and-sustainable-u-s-defense-strategy-in-asia/

In the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Finland and Sweden made a dramatic shift in their security policies, seeking membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and turning away from decades of neutrality (indeed, centuries in Sweden's case). Barring further Turkish objections, their membership appears likely to go through. Does this serve U.S. interests? We spoke with Sumantra Maitra of the Center for the National Interest and the Royal Historical Society. Dr. Maitra is author of a forthcoming article on this subject for Law and Liberty and the below report at the Center for Renewing America: https://americarenewing.com/issues/nato-expansion-for-finland-and-sweden-a-dangerous-and-unnecessary-distraction-from-us-interests/

We hear a lot about something called "the liberal international order." The frequent use of the term, however, is relatively recent - and the phrase itself often obscures as much as it reveals. This recording from our 2022 summer conference in Washington captures a conversation with Stephen Wertheim of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and its American Statecraft Program.

The Eurasia Group Foundation (EGF) came out in June with their annual survey of international perceptions of American democracy. As the Biden administration works to restore the credibility of the United States on the world stage, we found favorable views of both the United States and American democracy are at a four-year high. The report also found favorable views of President Biden’s foreign policy decisions, including Ukraine and Afghanistan. At the same time, views of American democracy from respondents in China are at a four-year low. The report is based on nearly 5,000 survey takers in nine politically and geographically diverse countries. Respondents were asked detailed questions about the United States, its democracy, and its global influence. EGF shared its most notable findings with JQAS and discussed possible implications for US foreign policy going forward. EGF researchers Zuri Linetsky, Caroline Gray, and Lucas Robinson spoke with us.

You can find the full poll here. https://egfound.org/2022/06/modeling-democracy-democracys-promise/

You can find more information about our Marcellus Policy Fellowship, mentioned at the end as a great way to develop your foreign policy writing skills, here. Applications are currently open for the fall cohort. https://jqas.org/the-marcellus-policy-fellowship/

President Joe Biden has made several big moves in his foreign policy toward the Middle East so far - among them a planned trip to meet with Saudi Arabia's controversial leader Mohammad bin Salman, a willingness to allow the Iran nuclear talks to lie fallow, and a cut to military aid to Egypt. This happens as several regional states want the United States to remain committed to the region and even to increase military presence there. How is everything going, and how does this fit into broader trends in U.S. grand strategy and Middle Eastern politics? 

Our guest Sean Yom is Associate Professor of Political Science at Temple University and Senior Fellow at the Project on Middle East Democracy in Washington, DC. He is a specialist on regimes and governance in the Middle East, especially in Arab monarchies like Jordan, Kuwait, and Morocco. His research engages topics of authoritarian politics, democratic reforms, institutional stability, and economic development in these countries, as well as their implications for US foreign policy. His publications include the books From Resilience to Revolution: How Foreign Interventions Destabilize the Middle East (Columbia University Press, 2016), as well as The Political Science of the Middle East: Theory and Research since the Arab Uprisings (Oxford University Press, 2022); articles in print journals like Comparative Political Studies, European Journal of International Relations, Studies in Comparative International Development, and Journal of Democracy; and contributions in online venues like Foreign Affairs, Middle East Eye, and the Washington Post’s Monkey Cage. He also advises country-level work with international NGOs, law firms, and sovereign clients. Education: A.B., Brown University (2003); PhD., Harvard University (2009).

Iran faces growing problems at home and abroad. At home, a building collapse added fuel to the fire of protests that had started over rising food prices. Abroad, the International Atomic Energy Agency’s Board of Governors has just condemned the regime’s lack of compliance with nuclear safeguards measures. Nuclear negotiations are frozen. Sanctions remain on. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has complicated the Ebrahim Raisi administration’s efforts to reorient foreign policy away from the West.

Negar Mortazavi is an Iranian American journalist and political analyst based in Washington DC, who has been covering Iranian affairs and US-Iran relations for over a decade. She is host of The Iran Podcast. Her previous work includes serving as a columnist and diplomatic correspondent at The Independent, a host on Voice of America and as Washington Correspondent for Iran International.

Ukraine won the battle for Kyiv and pushed the Russians back from Kharkiv. But that doesn't mean the war is over - indeed, it seems likely to continue for the long haul, while there may be dangers of Russian escalation in spite of Russia's weak position. We spoke with George Beebe, former head of Russia analysis at the Central Intelligence Agency and current Director of Grand Strategy at the Quincy Institute, about what lies ahead. His 2019 book is The Russia Trap: How Our Shadow War with Russia Could Spiral into Nuclear Catastrophe.

What does it mean to be Ukrainian? Struggles within Ukraine about the answer to that question create an opening for other states to intervene, argues our guest, with some (primarily in Ukraine's north and west) favoring a more ethnic nationalism and others (primarily in Ukraine's east and south) favoring a more civic nationalism. In World War I, World War II, and the present day, outside powers have backed one vision or another to advance their interests. Only a process of truth and reconciliation - of catharsis leading to understanding - can heal Ukraine.   

Nicolai N. Petro is a Professor of Political Science at the University of Rhode Island. He was a U.S. Fulbright Scholar in Ukraine 2013-2014 and the author of the forthcoming book The Tragedy of Ukraine: What Classical Greek Tragedy Can Teach Us About Conflict Resolution.  

The Yale Journal of International Affairs article Dr. Petro references is "The Gospel According to Poroshenko: Politics, Religion, and the New Church of Ukraine," available at https://www.yalejournal.org/publications/the-gospel-according-to-poroshenko-politics-religion-and-the-new-church-of-ukraine

The next event we have on Ukraine is with George Beebe - on dangers of escalation and paths to peace. Learn more and register here: https://standtogether.zoom.us/webinar/register/4716529676857/WN_aIiw1IiySneDWzfFfKmXqQ

How did Putin become Putin? Amb. John Evans met the future Russian leader when he was just a deputy mayor of St. Petersburg. Evans, then serving as U.S. consul general, shares his recollections of the young Putin, situates this in the broader Russian political situation in the 1990s and the evolution of U.S.-Russian relations from the optimism of the period to today's bitterness. We also speak about Russia's move into Ukraine - how it came to this and where it may go.

Our guest offers a minor correction to his remarks: "It was Chip Bohlen who got the scoop on the Hitler-Stalin pact from his German colleague in Moscow. [Not George Kennan.]  Bohlen tells the story in Chapter Five of his 'Witness to History.'"