Sharp China with Bill Bishop

By Andrew Sharp and Sinocism’s Bill BishopNews

Sharp China with Bill Bishop episodes

November 08, 2024 Questions and Expectations for Trump 2.0; Looming Trade Tensions and PRC Responses; Volatility and Intermediaries; TikTok’s Last Hope?
Get all episodes of Sharp China, Sharp Tech, Stratechery Updates and Interviews, Greatest of All Talk and the Dithering Podcast as part of Stratechery Plus for $15/month or $150/year.
Bill Bishop is the author of Sinocism
On today’s show Andrew and Bill talk through a second Donald Trump presidency and what it might mean for US-China relations. Topics include: a note of congratulations from Xi Jinping Thursday morning, memories of the first Trump presidency, the calculus from both sides as tariffs loom, a larger toolkit of responses to trade policy for the PRC, potential intermediaries between Trump's administration and PRC leadership, and the strategic challenges and opportunities that China sees in a Trump administration. At the end: TikTok’s fate and whether Trump will save the app’s future in the United States, additional details on the Salt Typhoon telecommunications hack, and thoughts on the Biden administration's approach to the PRC, and the challenges facing any U.S. administration.
To email the show: [email protected]
@SharpTechPodcast Channel — YouTube
@Stratechery Channel — YouTube
Trump 2.0 and the PRC — Sinocism
Xi congratulates Trump; Social work and stability; "Stimulus" rumors; October exports surge; TikTok; Hack of US telecoms — Sinocism
China congratulates Trump, says it respects America's choice — Reuters
China Learns How to Get Trump’s Ear: Through Jared Kushner — New York Times (2017)
Donald Trump’s trade remedies reflect America’s troubled reality — Financial Times
Markets Are Underpricing the Possibility of a U.S.-China Economic War — Foreign Policy
Chinese officials struggle to build ties with Donald Trump’s campaign — Financial Times
Americans Who Want to Do Business in China Need to Meet This Man — Wall Street Journal
What Trump's win means for Ukraine, Middle East and China — BBC
Americans, your calls and texts can be monitored by Chinese spies — Washington Post
Chinese hackers gained access to huge trove of Americans’ cell records — Politico
China Hack Enabled Vast Spying on U.S. Officials, Likely Ensnaring Thousands of Contacts — Wall Street Journal
Trudeau government bans TikTok from operating in Canada — but Canadians can still use it — CBC
TikTok Sees Trump Victory As App’s Best Hope — The Information
Spotlight: Xi-Trump meeting helps achieve much friendlier tone in China-U.S. ties: experts — Xinhua
1 hr 5 min
October 30, 2024 (Preview) Myriad Holes in US Chip Controls; New Reports on TSMC and Huawei; The Latest "Stimulus" News; Mixed Signals on Private Tutoring
Get all episodes of Sharp China, Sharp Tech, Stratechery Updates and Interviews, Greatest of All Talk and the Dithering Podcast as part of Stratechery Plus for $15/month or $150/year.
Bill Bishop is the author of Sinocism
On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with an excellent report from Semi Analysis, and the state of the U.S. export controls on semiconductors and chipmaking equipment. Topics include: New reports of TSMC sales to Huawei-linked firms, the Commerce Department's oversight of chip controls, the various loopholes being routinely exploited by SMIC, Huawei and related entities, and enforcement questions for future administrations. From there: The NPC Standing Committee meeting is set for next week, the latest reports on what might be announced, and questions concerning the timing of the meeting, which will coincide with the US election. At the end: The PRC's crackdown on the private tutoring industry might be lifting, and reports that Chinese hackers targeted data from both Presidential campaigns.
To email the show: [email protected]
@SharpTechPodcast Channel — YouTube
@Stratechery Channel — YouTube
Xi schools cadres; More stimulus talk; EU tariffs on PRC EVs go into effect; TSMC cuts of two customers over Huawei concerns — Sinocism
NPCSC meeting; Politburo meeting on discipline; Politburo studies "building strong cultural nation; Huawei sanctions evasion; Pro-natal measures; Phone hacking — Sinocism
Fab Whack-A-Mole: Chinese Companies are Evading U.S. Sanctions — SemiAnalysis
TSMC suspended shipments to China firm after chip found on Huawei processor, sources say — Reuters
TSMC cuts off at least two chip clients over potential Huawei links — Nikkei
TSMC Chips Ended Up in Devices Made by China’s Huawei Despite U.S. Controls — New York Times
Exclusive: China considers over $1.4 trillion in extra debt over next few years — Reuters
China's private tutoring firms emerge from the shadows after crackdown — Reuters
Chinese Hackers Are Said to Have Targeted Phones Used by Trump and Vance — New York Times
10 min
October 23, 2024 (Preview) Questions for BRICS and the NPC; PRC Nuclear Arsenal and Ambitions; Taiwan's Energy Security; Heightened Scrutiny on TSMC and the Biden Admin
Get all episodes of Sharp China, Sharp Tech, Stratechery Updates and Interviews, Greatest of All Talk and the Dithering Podcast as part of Stratechery Plus for $15/month or $150/year.
Bill Bishop is the author of Sinocism
On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with Xi Jinping's visit to the16th BRICS Summit and Russia's rumored effort to build a platform for international payments that would be immune to Western sanctions. From there: The Power of Siberia-2 pipeline that may or may not materialize, waiting for news on the next meeting of the NPC standing committee, and one theory on how the US election could impact the timing of the next fiscal announcement. Then: Xi's visit to a PLA Rocket Force brigade in Anhui, the rhetoric Xi uses surrounding the PLA and its readiness, and thoughts on the continued buildout of the PRC nuclear arsenal. At the end: A note on Taiwan's energy security, clarity on the names of the National Zoo’s new pandas, and a flurry of reports and questions surrounding Huawei, TSMC and the Commerce Department's oversight of export controls on chipmaking equipment.
To email the show: [email protected]
@SharpTechPodcast Channel — YouTube
@Stratechery Channel — YouTube
Xi meets Putin; No announcement of NPC SC meeting; Rui Chenggang; Huawei and TSMC; Huawei's updated OS; VW exec deported — Sinocism
Xi in Anhui, inspects nuclear missile brigade; Q3 GDP and rate cuts; BRICS; Export controls — Sinocism
Xi Jinping to Attend the 16th BRICS Summit in Russia — MoFA
At BRICS summit, Russia to push to end dollar dominance — Reuters
Plan D — Doomberg
China Moves to Support Markets After Data Showing Economy Slowed — Bloomberg
Covering China’s National People’s Congress and its Standing Committee — NPC Observer
Xi calls on Anhui to write its own chapter of Chinese modernization — Xinhua
Adapting US strategy to account for China’s transformation into a peer nuclear power — The Atlantic Council
Huawei Technologies’ Latest AI Chips Were Produced by TSMC — Bloomberg
TSMC says it alerted US to potential violation of China AI chip controls — Financial Times
U.S. Probes TSMC’s Dealings With Huawei — The Information
Secretive Chip Startup May Help Huawei Circumvent US Sanctions — Bloomberg (2022)
D.C.’s new pandas are named what, now? — Washington Post
TSMC Cuts Off Client After Discovering Chips Diverted to Huawei — Bloomberg
13 min
October 16, 2024 (Preview) Operation Joint Sword 2024B; The Latest on the "Stimulus"; US Presidential Election Follow-Up; Two Pandas Fly to D.C.
Get all episodes of Sharp China, Sharp Tech, Stratechery Updates and Interviews, Greatest of All Talk and the Dithering Podcast as part of Stratechery Plus for $15/month or $150/year.
Bill Bishop is the author of Sinocism
On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with the news that the PRC has sent two pandas to the National Zoo in Washington D.C., as Qing Bao, a 3-year-old year-old female, and Bao Li, a 3-year-old male, begin a 30-day quarantine in the Panda House. Then: Takeaways from Monday's Operation Joint Sword 2024B around Taiwan, including the strategic value of these military exercises for the PRC, and the implications of normalizing this pattern of behavior. From there: Parsing the "stimulus" news over the last several days, including the strain on local governments, why reports suggest that Xi and the central government are taking action to help them, and heightened scrutiny on overseas investments. At the end: Following up on Bill's conversation about the 2024 US Election, a Financial Times report on PRC educators ordered to surrender their passport, and an emailer provides a look at the new quality productive forces in dentistry.
To email the show: [email protected]
@SharpTechPodcast Channel — YouTube
@Stratechery Channel — YouTube
Guessing about new bond issuance; Panda stimulus for US-China relations; Space plans; Tax collectors — Sinocism
More special bonds for fiscal stimulus?; Stock market surge; Water-filled submarine; MSS mad at New Zealand; Raising money by detaining private entrepreneurs — Sinocism
Giant pandas have returned to D.C. Meet Bao Li and Qing Bao. — Washington Post
China Counts Wild Pandas. Nobody Believes Its Tally — New York Times
The Panda Factories — New York Times
PRC Military Drills Near Taiwan — US Department of State
China ends war games around Taiwan, but leaves door open to more — Reuters
China throwing a ‘temper tantrum’ with Taiwan drills, key Democrat says — Semafor (May 2024)
China flags more fiscal stimulus for economy, leaves out key details on size — Reuters
Exclusive: China May Add 6 Trillion Yuan in Treasury Bonds to Buttress Economy — Caixin
Chinese Banks Set to Cut Deposit Rates as Soon as This Week — Bloomberg
Behind Xi Jinping’s Pivot on Broad China Stimulus — Wall Street Journal
China’s real intent behind its stimulus inflection — Financial Times
Wealth China Moves to Tax the Ultra-Rich for Overseas Investment Gains — Bloomberg
Substack Election Dialogues: China and the US election — Sinocism
China tells schoolteachers to hand in their passports — Financial Times
16 min
October 09, 2024 (Preview) Market Adventures Continue; Waiting for an NPC Meeting; EU Tariffs on PRC EVs; Taiwan National Day
Get all episodes of Sharp China, Sharp Tech, Stratechery Updates and Interviews, Greatest of All Talk and the Dithering Podcast as part of Stratechery Plus for $15/month or $150/year.
Bill Bishop is the author of Sinocism
On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with the market's reactions to the NDRC press briefing on Tuesday, as Hong Kong saw all of last week's gains erased, while the PRC markets continued to see gains. Topics include: Misplaced expectations on the NDRC press conference, a National People's Congress meeting later in October that may articulate more concrete measures, and more thoughts on the continued volatility in the market themselves as well as commentary around the world. From there: An emailer has a question about a potential ByteDance IPO, a note on the broader concerns that persist in the PRC, and the EU passes tariffs on PRC EVs. At the end: A note on Taiwan National Day and the potential for an Operation Joint Sword 2024B, and a listener notes that Xi Jinping is leaving China far less frequently than he once did.
To email the show: [email protected]
@SharpTechPodcast Channel — YouTube
@Stratechery Channel — YouTube
Stock market volatility; Premier Li meetings on the economy; PRC goes after EU brandy; Wu Bangguo; Wang-Raimondo call; MSS on the "China Initiative" — Sinocism
Stock market expectations; EU EV tariffs; Taiwan; Pakistan terror attack; Vietnam fishing boat attack — Sinocism
China Markets Warn Xi That More Stimulus Is Needed to Fuel Rally — Bloomberg
China targets brandy in EU trade tit-for-tat after EV tariff move — Reuters
EU votes for tariffs on Chinese-made EVs in blockbuster trade row — SCMP
‘A very serious situation’: Volkswagen could close plants in Germany for the first time in history — CNN
Communist China not the motherland, says Taiwan’s president, because our republic is older — The Guardian
US concerned about Taiwan candidate — Financial Times (2011)
China is using an “anaconda strategy” to squeeze Taiwan — The Economist
12 min
October 02, 2024 Animal Spirits and Xi Bull Market 2.0; Plans for the Property Sector; US-China Updates; Xi and the Succession Question
Get all episodes of Sharp China, Sharp Tech, Stratechery Updates and Interviews, Greatest of All Talk and the Dithering Podcast as part of Stratechery Plus for $15/month or $150/year.
Bill Bishop is the author of Sinocism
On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with revived animal spirits and the market response to the stimulus measures emerging from Beijing. Topics include: The September Politburo meeting as a sign of the government's commitment, why the capital markets may be a security priority for Xi, what might have motivated the sudden policy shift at the top, and parallels to the market responses in 2014. From there: The property sector and the multi-layered problem policymakers are attempting to solve, Blinken meets with Wang Yi in New York but still no word on a phone call between President Biden and Xi Jinping, a PRC nuclear submarine sinks, and a question about succession in the event of Xi's passing.
To email the show: [email protected]
@SharpTechPodcast Channel — YouTube
@Stratechery Channel — YouTube
Xi bull market 2.0?; More support for real estate; Wang Yi meets Blinken — Sinocism
More special bonds for fiscal stimulus?; Stock market surge; Water-filled submarine; MSS mad at New Zealand; Raising money by detaining private entrepreneurs — Sinocism
China stocks surge in biggest single-day rally since 2008 on stimulus cheer — Reuters
And Just Like That, China Did a Policy U-Turn (Again) — Wall Street Journal
China’s Housing Glut Collides With Its Shrinking Population — Wall Street Journal
Secretary Blinken’s Meeting with People’s Republic of China (PRC) Director of the CCP Central Foreign Affairs Commission and Foreign Minister Wang Yi — U.S. Department of State
China’s Newest Nuclear Submarine Sank, Setting Back Its Military Modernization — Wall Street Journal
China concealed sinking of newest nuclear submarine, U.S. says — Nikkei Asia
Xi Jinping’s Succession Dilemma — Asia Society
51 min
September 26, 2024 (Preview) Unpacking the New Stimulus Measures; A Top Economist Disappears; US Moves on Connected Vehicles; The Future of China Policy for Democrats
Get all episodes of Sharp China, Sharp Tech, Stratechery Updates and Interviews, Greatest of All Talk and the Dithering Podcast as part of Stratechery Plus for $15/month or $150/year.
Bill Bishop is the author of Sinocism
On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with a raft of measures announced this week to stimulate the economy. Topics include: A pop to the stock market just in time for the PRC's 75th anniversary, stimulating mergers and acquisitions, whether this week's measures indicate more relief in the months to come, and more. Then: The disappearance of prominent economist Zhu Hengpeng, and a reminder of structural problems under Xi that have continued to intensify, regardless of monetary policy. At the end: The Ministry of Commerce announces that the owner of Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger is under investigation, the US Commerce Department moves forward with a proposed rule that would effectively ban Chinese vehicles from the US, and a Substack post offers a taxonomy of Democrat China policies and questions about who might set the agenda for a Kamala Harris administration.
To email the show: [email protected]
@SharpTechPodcast Channel — YouTube
@Stratechery Channel — YouTube
Addressing employment concerns; Stimulus!?; Connected vehicles and EU EV tariffs; CASS purge; Xinjiang cotton; ICBM test — Sinocism
September Politburo Meeting to Analyze and Study Current Economic Situation and Economic Work; Investors Pumped — Sinocism
China's central bank unveils most aggressive stimulus since pandemic — Reuters
Five Key Takeaways as China Unveils Stimulus to Boost Economy — Bloomberg
Xi’s Economic Adrenaline Shot Is Only Buying China a Little Time — Bloomberg
Top Economist in China Vanishes After Private WeChat Comments — Wall Street Journal
Beijing Threatens to Block Calvin Klein Owner’s Access to China — Wall Street Journal
US proposes banning Chinese software and components in vehicles — Financial Times
Relitigating China Policy — Matt Turpin
Washington’s Playbook for China Must Change — Foreign Policy
The Case Against the China Consensus — Foreign Affairs
16 min
September 18, 2024 (Preview) Retirement Age Reforms; A Sabina Shoal Win for the PRC and Questions for the US; Chip Companies in DC; Japan and TikTok
Get all episodes of Sharp China, Sharp Tech, Stratechery Updates and Interviews, Greatest of All Talk and the Dithering Podcast as part of Stratechery Plus for $15/month or $150/year.
Bill Bishop is the author of Sinocism
On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin by wishing a happy Mid-Autumn Festival to all. Then: The PRC government implements the Decision on Gradually Raising the Statutory Retirement Ages. Why was this necessary, why were the changes made now, and what might this signal about the rest of goals and reforms announced at the Third Plenum? From there: The PRC blockade at Xianbin Jiao/Sabina Shoal appears to have succeeded as the Philippines returns the BRP Theresa Magbanua to port, and questions persist as to when, and how, the US might deter PRC tactics in the South China Sea. At the end: The latest lobbying effort surrounding updated export controls, Japan's negotiations with the US over export controls, the Biden administration takes on the de minimis loophole, and TikTok’s trial begins in DC.
To email the show: [email protected]
@SharpTechPodcast Channel — YouTube
@Stratechery Channel — YouTube
Economic data; Retirement ages; A win for the PRC at Xianbin Jiao/Sabina Shoal?; US pastor released; US chip export controls — Sinocism
Overcapacity; National security; Japan and chip controls; Moutai; Big food concept — Sinocism
China Raises Retirement Age for the First Time Since the 1950s — New York Times
Commentary & Translation: China’s Plan to Raise Statutory Retirement Ages — NPC Observer
China’s working age population is shrinking — CNBC
U.S. 'ready' to assist Philippines with South China Sea resupplies — Nikkei
Video by Joseph Morong — X: @Joseph_Morong
Philippines Withdraws Ship From South China Sea Flashpoint — Bloomberg
Philippines Vows to Return to Disputed Shoal After Ship Pullout — Bloomberg
US strategists face dilemma over Beijing claim in South China Sea — Financial Times (2014)
China rams Philippine ship while 60 Minutes on board; South China Sea tensions could draw U.S. in — 60 Minutes
Thread from the Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party — X: @committeeonccp
US and Japan near deal to curb chip technology exports to China — Financial Times
Analysis: China moves to play 'Okinawa card' over Japan's Taiwan stance — Nikkei
FACT SHEET: Biden-⁠Harris Administration Announces New Actions to Protect American Consumers, Workers, and Businesses by Cracking Down on De Minimis Shipments with Unsafe, Unfairly Traded Products — The White House
Court Appears Skeptical of TikTok’s Challenge to U.S. Ban — Wall Street Journal
How a Tariff Rule Aimed at China Could Affect U.S. Ad Spending — Wall Street Journal
16 min
September 11, 2024 (Preview) The Arrest of Linda Sun; Overcapacity and Mounting Deflation Concerns; A New Role for Qin Gang; Rock Bottom for PRC Men's Soccer
Get all episodes of Sharp China, Sharp Tech, Stratechery Updates and Interviews, Greatest of All Talk and the Dithering Podcast as part of Stratechery Plus for $15/month or $150/year.
Bill Bishop is the author of Sinocism
On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with reactions to last week's arrest of Linda Sun, a former deputy chief of staff to governor Kathy Hochul. Topics include: The allegations contained in the Department of Justice indictment of Sun and her husband, the PRC efforts to influence local government officials around the world, the status of New York Consul General Huang Ping, and a report on the suppression of dissidents during Xi's APEC visit in November. From there: Updates on the overcapacity concerns around the world, a Bloomberg story on a $6.5 trillion stock rout, and reactions to a thoughtful Substack post on deleveraging efforts and deflation concerns in the midst of recent turmoil. At the end: An update on Qin Gang that may or may not resolve lingering questions, and a new rock bottom for the PRC men's soccer team.
To email the show: [email protected]
@SharpTechPodcast Channel — YouTube
@Stratechery Channel — YouTube
Xi at Education conference; US accuses PRC of more help for Russia's "war machine"; Deflation; Raising retirement age — Sinocism
Qin Gang's new job?; US business advisory for Hong Kong; Yi Gang on deflation; Xi on education — Sinocism
The Secrets of an Unassuming N.Y. Official Accused of Working for China — New York Times
A top Chinese official in NY is on the outs over the Linda Sun case. Or is he? — Gothamist
Linda Sun Indictment — United States District Court
Find the Cost of Interference — China Articles
Key takeaways from AP’s report on China’s influence in Utah — AP
How China extended its repression into an American city — Washington Post
Why China Is Starting a New Trade War — Wall Street Journal
There’s a China-Shaped Hole in the Global Economy — Wall Street Journal
China trade war ‘maybe unavoidable’, EU’s top diplomat Josep Borrell warns — SCMP
The Downdraft — A Letter from Paul
China’s $6.5 Trillion Stock Rout Worsens Economic Peril for Xi — Bloomberg
China’s Deflationary Spiral Is Now Entering Dangerous New Stage — Bloomberg
The real problem with China’s economy — The Economist
China Should Fight Deflationary Pressure Now, Ex-PBOC Chief Says — Bloomberg
Chinese Localities Adopt ‘Sell Everything to Save the Day’ Policy to Ease Debt — Caixin
China’s ‘disappeared’ foreign minister demoted to low-level publishing job, say former U.S. officials — Washington Post
What China’s Property Gloom and Soccer Fiasco Have in Common — Wall Street Journal
China Football Association bans 43 after corruption probe — ESPN
16 min
September 04, 2024 The US-China Strategic Channel; Continued Drama in the South China Sea; The Next Phase of Chip Controls; Black Myth: Wukong
Get all episodes of Sharp China, Sharp Tech, Stratechery Updates and Interviews, Greatest of All Talk and the Dithering Podcast as part of Stratechery Plus for $15/month or $150/year.
Bill Bishop is the author of Sinocism
On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with a look at the dialogue between National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Director of the Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission Wang Yi. Topics include: Why meetings with Wang are valuable to the U.S. side, the progress the meetings have (and have not) yielded, and the strategy going forward. From there: Yet another clash between the PRC and the Philippines over the weekend, continued questions about when and how the U.S. may intervene, and updates on the next phase of chip controls as the Netherlands weighs a policy change, the PRC threatens retribution against Japan, and a cloud computing loophole persists. At the end: An emailer asks about Xi‘s speeches, and thoughts on the success of the best-selling video game in the world this week, Black Myth: Wukong.
To email the show: [email protected]
@SharpTechPodcast Channel — YouTube
@Stratechery Channel — YouTube
Xi on education; Escalating crisis at Sabina Shoal; FOCAC week; Toyota opposes more chip controls; A Gao Brother detained — Sinocism
Jake Sullivan meets Xi; Philippines resupplies ship at Sabina Shoal; ASML may stop servicing some PRC machines; HK sedition convictions — Sinocism
The inside story of the secret backchannel between the US and China — Financial Times
China, Philippines accuse each other of ramming ships in South China Sea — Reuters
If China wants Taiwan it should also take back land from Russia, president says — Reuters
As China’s power grows, candidates use it as attack line — Washington Post
ASML’s China Chip Business Faces New Curbs From Netherlands — Bloomberg
China Warns Japan of Retaliation for Possible New Chip Curbs — Bloomberg
Why China Is Starting a New Trade War — Wall Street Journal
There’s a China-Shaped Hole in the Global Economy — Wall Street Journal
China trade war ‘maybe unavoidable’, EU’s top diplomat Josep Borrell warns — SCMP
Hit game Black Myth: Wukong faces backlash after telling players not to discuss ‘feminist propaganda’ — The Guardian
China’s first global gaming hit sells millions in a week. An early investor shares what’s next — CNBC
Black Myth: Wukong Final Trailer — YouTube
1 hr 8 min