Top Traders Unplugged

SI180: Data Versus Stories & The "Moscow Rules" ft. Mark Rzepczynski


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Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss Trend Following versus Momentum strategies, the need to be humble about making economic forecasts, how Central Bank policies affect Trend Following performance, Cathie Wood and ARKK coming under pressure from the media, Trend Following on options, calculating a systems’ risk-to-stop, vetting new investors for their ability to handle risk, hard data versus stories, when to apply the ‘Moscow rules’.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

In this episode, we discuss:

  • How Trend Following differs to momentum
  • Avoiding the need to make predictions
  • The Federal Reserve and its effects on Trend Following strategies
  • ARKK’s media scrutiny following recent poor performance
  • The similarities between Trend Following and options
  • How to calculate ‘risk-to-stop’
  • Qualifying new investors before accepting them as clients
  • The “Moscow Rules"

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfoliohere.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

02:02  – Macro recap from Niels

04:39 – Weekly review of performance

23:00 – Q1 Zack: How should I calculate the risk-to-stop metric?

28:42 – Q2 Peregrine: Vetting new investors for their ability to handle risk 

42:09 – Q3 Graham: Can you detail some of the definitions of a breakout?

47:24 – Trend Following versus Momentum

01:00:58 – Molecules of prices

01:08:31 – Data versus stories and when to apply the ‘Moscow Rules’

01:15:00  Benchmark performance update

01:15:52 A big thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes, and feel free to share our link with 3 of your like-minded friends:

https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Top Traders UnpluggedBy Niels Kaastrup-Larsen

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