The recently announced two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran is giving investors hope that traffic will normalize soon in the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway that before the war serviced a fifth of global oil supply. As countries search for workarounds to plug the shortfall, a spike in global commodity prices has reinvigorated inflation worries, prompted expectations for central bank tightening, and weighed on global growth sentiment. The path of US inflation this year will depend on the pass-through to consumers and whether the Strait sustainably reopens. In this special edition of Simply Put, we talk with geopolitical analyst Rachel Ziemba about the Strait of Hormuz’s role in global commodity markets, how higher raw material costs affect consumer prices, and what it will take to normalize traffic in the Strait.

Private credit has outgrown its original niche of lending to middle-market firms using funds from institutional investors with long time horizons. Rising participation from retail investors and banks has increased the sector’s interconnectedness with the wider financial system, making

AI optimism is fueling expectations for a sustained post-pandemic productivity surge that supports robust economic growth and permits easier Fed policy. However, history suggests full technological

As investment into Artificial Intelligence continues to grow, construction of AI data centers is significantly increasing the demand for electricity, water, and land use across the country. These centers can require the same amount of water as a fifty-thousand-person town and could represent 12% of overall US electricity consumption in the coming years. Inflexible supply creates the risk of rapid price increases while private and public sector leaders work to meet the growing demand. In this episode, we talk with Joe Kane, Fellow at the Brookings Institution, about why these AI data centers are so resource-intensive, their impact on local infrastructure, and the bottlenecks limiting quicker supply adjustments.

The Federal Reserve influences financial conditions through the federal funds market, a private market consisting of unsecured overnight interbank transactions. As the locus of money markets moves away from fed funds and more towards repos and SOFR, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan has argued the current policy regime no longer suits the financial system. In this episode, we talk with Bill Nelson, Chief Economist and Chief Research Officer at the Bank Policy Institute, about the shifting nature of the fed funds market, what it would take to revive fed funds, and some alternative approaches to short-term rate policy.

President Trump has nominated former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair later this year. Warsh called for “regime change” at the Fed last year, reiterating his long-held criticism of the Fed’s large balance sheet, data-dependence, and use of forward guidance. His tenure would begin with an already-divided FOMC and lingering worries surrounding threats to the Fed’s political independence. In this episode, we talk with George Pearkes, Macro Strategist with Bespoke Investment Group, about what Kevin Warsh brings to the Fed and how his leadership could drive monetary policy in the years ahead.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is poised to disrupt the labor market by replacing certain tasks and enhancing the productivity of others. Although these changes could eventually lead to broader prosperity, they could also cause worker displacement, increase inequality, and decrease entry-level work opportunities. In this episode, we talk with Lisa Simon, Chief Economist of Revelio Labs, about the ways AI has already impacted the labor market, its diverse effects across occupations and industries, and what history can tell us about the longer-term future of work.

Banks enter 2026 with a positively sloped yield curve, steady deposit growth, and a favorable regulatory environment. The outlook for the economy and Fed policy is highly uncertain, however, posing risks to loan demand, net interest margins, and the appetite for adding duration to balance sheets. In this episode, we talk with FHN Financial’s Jon Cantrell and S.J. Guzzo about bank deposit and loan growth in 2026, the ways banks can position for different shapes of the yield curve, and how regulatory changes will impact banks’ decisions this year.

The US economy entered 2025 in a delicate balance but quickly faced several federal policy shocks. Tariffs, changes to immigration policy, and efforts to trim federal spending dominated headlines and complicated investors’ ability to identify underlying economic momentum. By the end of the year, the unemployment rate had risen to 4.6% but growth was tracking above 2%, inflation was above the Fed’s target but showed few signs of massive tariff pass-through, and the bond market was cautiously steady. In this episode, we talk with FHN Financial’s Chris Low and Sophia Kearney-Lederman about the biggest macroeconomic stories of 2025, what surprised us the most this year, and what we’ll be watching closely in 2026.

A set of elements called “rare earths” have been at the center of many international trade negotiations this year. Crucial to producing certain industrial and consumer products, rare earths can take more than a decade to discover and are expensive to refine. China’s dominant position in the global supply of rare earths is giving it leverage as US trade policies seek to redefine the international economy. In this episode, we talk with Tom Moerenhout, Professor at Columbia’s School of International and Public Affairs, about the importance of rare earths in the modern economy, their impact on international trade negotiations, and how the US can improve the resilience of our supply chain for rare earths.