Simply Put

Tourism has bounced back after significantly suffering during early pandemic shutdowns. Households across the income spectrum continue to spend on discretionary travel despite economic pessimism and depleted savings. Tourism’s recovery and strength offer insight into how the overall economy has managed to weather high inflation and aggressive Fed tightening without tipping into a recession. In this episode, we talk with Adam Sacks, President of Tourism Economics, about the tourism industry’s challenges since 2020, how tourists have defied predictions of a consumer slowdown, and how spending strength has varied across geographies, income groups, and sectors.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is followed closely by financial market participants as an estimate for economic growth. Rather than looking at a long-term horizon, the model focuses only on the current quarter and updates its estimate after important monthly data reports, giving a real-time ability to check the pulse of the economy instead of waiting for each quarterly GDP release. In this episode, we talk with Patrick Higgins, Economist with the Atlanta Federal Reserve and creator of the GDPNow model, about how the model differs from other forecasts, its track record against the official GDP data, and the challenges of forecasting throughout the pandemic.

In his 1986 PhD thesis, Campbell Harvey identified the predictive power of the inverted yield curve through four business cycles. With curve inversion correctly foretelling three more recessions since then, investors this cycle have been anticipating an impending downturn ever since the yield curve inverted nearly two years ago. In this episode, we talk with Dr. Campbell Harvey, Professor of Finance at the Fuqua School of Business at Duke University, about the theoretical foundation connecting the inverted yield curve and recessions, whether this cycle could be different, and what it implies for Fed policy.

Although the Fed appears to be on the cusp of finally lowering interest rates, the rapid monetary tightening of the last two years has caused significant distress within commercial real estate (CRE). The bleakest doomsday predictions have not come to pass, but property owners have still experienced real losses as people shift to new post-pandemic ways of working and living. In this episode, we talk with Joey Kline, Executive Vice President at Jones Lang LaSalle, about where CRE stands more than a year into the Fed’s extended rate pause, how workplaces continue to evolve with hybrid work capabilities, and what areas are set to thrive in the post-pandemic economy.

Almost every state and local government worker in the US participates in a public pension system, creating a strong bond between the fiscal health of states and municipalities and their employees’ retirement systems. These smaller systems have faced the same demographic challenges driving concerns over Social Security’s funding, but they’ve also had to deal with rapid migration flows, fluctuating revenues, and the Fed’s aggressive interest rate hikes during the last four years. In this episode, we talk with JP Aubry, Associate Director of State and Local Research with the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, about how state and local pensions fit into the national retirement system, their impact on public budgets, and the biggest challenges they face in the coming years.

China’s booming real estate sector helped propel the country’s tremendous growth over the last few decades. This rapid increase in property valuations contributed to a speculative frenzy that led to overindebted firms, unfinished houses, and a collapse in consumer confidence for homeownership. In this episode, we talk with Kristy Hung, Senior Analyst for China Real Estate with Bloomberg Intelligence, about the fundamental forces driving China’s property sector, what caused recent issues at Evergrande and Country Garden, and global investors’ potential exposure to any systemic contagion. 

Oil prices have remained relatively steady during the last couple of years despite robust global demand and ongoing geopolitical risks from multiple foreign wars. The ability of domestic producers to increase production has played a large part in keeping prices in check, a notable contrast to only 20 years ago when the US was significantly more dependent on buying energy commodities from abroad. In this episode, we talk with Bryan Chapman, Market President for Energy Finance with First Horizon, about the multi-decade transformation of the US oil industry, the most important forces driving the industry today, and how oil companies are planning for the future.

As the Fed continues to fight high inflation, some analysts have argued that structural forces are making the ideal inflation target higher than 2% in the post-pandemic economy. Factors out of the Fed’s control are making it particularly difficult this cycle to fully restore price stability without tipping the economy into a recession. Although the current regime has a relatively short history, financial markets would almost certainly question the Fed’s inflation-fighting credibility if they were to raise the target. In this episode, we talk with Chris Low, Chief Economist with FHN Financial, about the history behind the Fed’s 2% inflation target, the main arguments for and against raising it from 2%, and the potential economic ramifications from a higher target.

Congress passed the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) nearly 50 years ago to encourage lending within financial institutions’ local communities. Since its passage, regulators have tried to modernize the CRA in order to keep up with broad changes in the financial system. Today, banks and bank examiners are preparing for possible reforms in the coming years that would significantly alter how they comply with the CRA. In this episode, we talk with Brian Waters, President and Co-Founder of FindCRA, about the history of CRA, its efficacy amidst a shifting financial landscape, and some proposed changes on the horizon. 

Loans issued by the Small Business Administration are pooled into securities that are backed by the full faith and credit of the US government, have a quarterly adjusting feature, and have no floating rate cap. The SBA market is big and liquid enough to function smoothly through shocks like legislative risk and the 2023 regional banking crisis. In this episode, we talk with Matt Peterman and Ruben Rodriguez of FHN Financial about the structure of SBA 7(a) securities, how the SBA market functioned through the pandemic economy, and the securities’ strategic role in the current interest rate environment.