The US Court of International Trade ruled last month that President Trump does not have the authority to unilaterally implement this year’s tariffs under emergency powers, throwing the president’s newest trade levies into legal limbo. As the case winds its way through the appeals process, the international trade environment hangs in the balance. In this episode, we talk with Ilya Somin, Professor of Law at George Mason University and co-counsel in the recent tariff case at the US Court of International Trade, about the legal pathways for enacting tariffs, last month’s ruling, and his predictions for trade policy once the dust is settled.

Regulations, snarled supply chains, and the scarring effects of the global financial crisis have all contributed to a nationwide housing shortage over the last fifteen years. As housing unaffordability continues to limit prospective homebuyers, homebuilders must now contend with federal policies that will impact housing demand, labor availability, and costs for building materials. In this episode, we talk with Robert Dietz, Chief Economist with the National Association of Home Builders, about why there’s a national housing shortage, how homebuilders view new federal policies, and the best ways to improve residential construction.

The Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) was designed to

The dollar has been the de facto global currency since World War II, pulling foreign investment into the US and allowing the federal government to borrow cheaply. A strong dollar also makes export-driven domestic industries less competitive, something the Trump administration is trying to offset through tariffs. A rumored “Mar-a-Lago Accord” would attempt to maintain the benefits of cheap borrowing while weakening the dollar. In this episode, we talk with Benn Steil, Senior Fellow and Director of International Economics at the Council on Foreign Relations, about the history behind the dollarization of global finance, the economic tradeoffs of sustained dollar strength, and how new policies could upend the dollar’s role in the post-war financial system.

The typical automobile manufactured in North America crosses national borders at least six times before it’s ready to be sold. Tariffs are expected to increase US auto prices by thousands of dollars as companies establish new supply chains and onshore manufacturing with higher production costs. In this episode, we talk with Jonathan Smoke, Chief Economist with Cox Automotive, about the complexity of auto manufacturing supply chains, tariffs’ impacts on prices and employment in the auto sector, and the outlook for a less globally integrated auto industry.

The Fed has been able to dismiss the economic risks from deteriorating sentiment by emphasizing the steady unemployment rate and decent job growth over the last seven months. The labor market’s surprising resilience over the last few years will now be tested by tariff-induced production changes, federal workforce layoffs, cuts to federal spending, and tighter immigration enforcement. In this episode, we talk with Guy Berger, Director of Economic Research at the Burning Glass Institute, about the risks from a low-churn labor market, how employers are shifting hiring plans amidst new federal policies, and whether the labor market can smoothly adjust to coming policy shocks.

President Trump’s latest tariff announcements have thrown global financial markets into a frenzy and increased the uncertainty for the US economic outlook. In this special edition of Simply Put, we talk with Amit Khandelwal, Professor of Global Affairs and Economics at Yale University, about the arguments for and against tariffs, how the 2018 tariffs affected the economy, and what the impacts could be of this year’s much broader and deeper tariff policies.

This year’s budget reconciliation bill has the potential to dramatically alter the fiscal relationship between states and the federal government. Some policymakers have proposed repealing the municipal tax exemption that has been at the heart of state financing for over a century. Others have suggested cutting federal spending by shifting the burden for certain outlays to state and local governments. In this episode, we talk with Emily Brock, Director of the Federal Liaison Center at the Government Finance Officers Association, about the critical role the muni tax exemption plays in local infrastructure investment, how states are adjusting to possible spending cuts from the federal government, and how the municipal bond market is responding amidst the policy uncertainty.

Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs) like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have been significant actors in the housing market for nearly a century. Ever since market distress pushed Fannie and Freddie into conservatorship of the Federal Housing Finance Authority in 2008, policymakers have sought to transition the firms back into more privatized roles. Reform discussions have accelerated after the November elections, but any massive changes would have to be judicious and likely require bipartisan support. In this episode, we interview Walt Schmidt, Manager of Mortgage Strategies with FHN Financial, about the history of GSEs in the housing market, potential reforms in the coming years, and what these changes would mean for the MBS market.

The pandemic fiscal response supported a much faster recovery in the US than after the financial crisis, but price levels and the federal deficit surged. Households and businesses, tired of high interest rates and cumulative price increases, must now contend with a tariff regime that aims to improve US competitiveness abroad at the risk of higher consumer prices. The Fed meanwhile is trying to restore price stability and preserve the recovery, unsure how much its rate policy is channeling into the economy. In this episode, we talk with journalist Matt Klein, creator of “The Overshoot” newsletter and co-author of the book Trade Wars are Class Wars, about the political appetite for future fiscal stimulus, tariffs’ effectiveness at improving global trade imbalances, and Fed policy in the post-pandemic economy. This interview was recorded live at the City Club of San Francisco on February 12.