Simply Put

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is poised to disrupt the labor market by replacing certain tasks and enhancing the productivity of others. Although these changes could eventually lead to broader prosperity, they could also cause worker displacement, increase inequality, and decrease entry-level work opportunities. In this episode, we talk with Lisa Simon, Chief Economist of Revelio Labs, about the ways AI has already impacted the labor market, its diverse effects across occupations and industries, and what history can tell us about the longer-term future of work.

Banks enter 2026 with a positively sloped yield curve, steady deposit growth, and a favorable regulatory environment. The outlook for the economy and Fed policy is highly uncertain, however, posing risks to loan demand, net interest margins, and the appetite for adding duration to balance sheets. In this episode, we talk with FHN Financial’s Jon Cantrell and S.J. Guzzo about bank deposit and loan growth in 2026, the ways banks can position for different shapes of the yield curve, and how regulatory changes will impact banks’ decisions this year.

The US economy entered 2025 in a delicate balance but quickly faced several federal policy shocks. Tariffs, changes to immigration policy, and efforts to trim federal spending dominated headlines and complicated investors’ ability to identify underlying economic momentum. By the end of the year, the unemployment rate had risen to 4.6% but growth was tracking above 2%, inflation was above the Fed’s target but showed few signs of massive tariff pass-through, and the bond market was cautiously steady. In this episode, we talk with FHN Financial’s Chris Low and Sophia Kearney-Lederman about the biggest macroeconomic stories of 2025, what surprised us the most this year, and what we’ll be watching closely in 2026.

A set of elements called “rare earths” have been at the center of many international trade negotiations this year. Crucial to producing certain industrial and consumer products, rare earths can take more than a decade to discover and are expensive to refine. China’s dominant position in the global supply of rare earths is giving it leverage as US trade policies seek to redefine the international economy. In this episode, we talk with Tom Moerenhout, Professor at Columbia’s School of International and Public Affairs, about the importance of rare earths in the modern economy, their impact on international trade negotiations, and how the US can improve the resilience of our supply chain for rare earths.

The ISM Manufacturing survey has shown US firms have struggled to plan long-term amid this year’s fluid tariff policy landscape. Economic uncertainty and the lingering risks of policy reversal are limiting manufacturers’ confidence in making big investment or hiring decisions. Meanwhile, AI promises to increase demand for some manufacturing sectors while revolutionizing the production of others. In this episode, we talk with Sue Spence, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, about how tariff policies are influencing manufacturers’ long-term planning, AI’s impact on the operations and demands for manufacturing, and what worries manufacturers most heading into 2026.

Rural hospitals utilize various forms of public support to increase healthcare availability in areas with low population density. The

FHN Financial forecasts the economy will remain resilient next year and inflation will trend towards 2%, allowing the Fed to cut rates by 75bp in 2026. The outlook could nonetheless shift from several structural economic changes. The risk of eventual tariff pass-through to consumer prices will linger in the background, AI-fueled investment has buoyed the 2025 economy without much job growth, and the FOMC may struggle to reach consensus next year as policy normalization continues under a new Fed Chair. This episode is a recording of the economic roundtable at FHN Financial’s 2025 annual seminar in Nashville with Chief Economist Chris Low, Senior Economist Sophia Kearney-Lederman, and Economic Analyst Mark Streiber.

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SEC Chair Paul Atkins said he is committed to fast-tracking President Trump’s proposal to change the frequency of corporate disclosure requirements from quarterly to semi-annually. Proponents argue the reform would significantly lower compliance costs and encourage more long-term thinking, while detractors believe it would decrease vital transparency that allows for price discovery and well-functioning markets. In this bonus episode, we talk with Nell Minow, a corporate governance scholar and Chair of ValueEdge Advisors, about the history of quarterly earnings reports, how regulators determine materiality, and the timeline for any potential regulatory changes.

The average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell 65bp between the beginning of June to the end of September, causing a mini refinancing boom from those who initially borrowed closer to this cycle’s peak rates. Most borrowers still have mortgages with rates well below the current market rate, however, reinforcing the “mortgage lock” that has stifled housing market churn over the last few years. The Fed’s policy path and longer-term interest rates will determine whether the housing market continues to thaw and how much prepayment risk there is for MBS investors. In this episode, we talk with Walt Schmidt, Manager of Mortgage Strategies with FHN Financial, about what’s caused the recent decline in mortgage rates, what to expect for MBS prepayments in the coming months, and whether another refinance boom is on the horizon.