The economy has consistently defied expectations since 2020, prompting important questions about the soundness of the models used by the Fed and most economists. High inflation persisted much longer than the Fed predicted, inflation fell substantially without significant labor market weakening, and the economy weathered aggressive Fed tightening by growing above its estimated long-run potential. In this episode, Chris Low, Chief Economist of FHN Financial, and Thomas Coleman, Senior Lecturer at the Harris School of Public Policy at the University of Chicago, reflect on the biggest economic lessons of the last few years and how to reconsider fundamental macroeconomic relationships for future cycles. This interview was recorded live at Morgan’s on Fulton in Chicago on October 16.

With control of the White House and House looking up for grabs, the post-election policy landscape looks highly uncertain only weeks before November 5. The priorities of the new president will run up against an unpredictable amount of Congressional and judicial pushback, creating a wide range of estimates for growth, inflation, federal deficits, and subsequent Fed policy. In this episode, we talk with Lucy Eve, Director of Global Macro-Geoeconomics with Eurasia Group, about the economic implications of various electoral outcomes, what the Presidential winner can do with and without Congressional cooperation, and how to manage risks amidst all the uncertainty.  

Unlike the markets for Treasury securities and MBS, the market for loans can be opaque and illiquid, making it difficult for financial institutions to optimize their loan portfolios and find appropriate counterparties with which to buy and sell loans. Periods of macroeconomic and interest rate volatility can also complicate the ability to accurately price loans for assets like commercial real estate. In this episode, we talk with Mitchell Redd, Senior Vice President with the Capital Assets Group at FHN Financial, about bridging the gap between buyers and sellers of loans, the current sentiment surrounding CRE, and how the loan market will change during Fed easing.

Tourism has bounced back after significantly suffering during early pandemic shutdowns. Households across the income spectrum continue to spend on discretionary travel despite economic pessimism and depleted savings. Tourism’s recovery and strength offer insight into how the overall economy has managed to weather high inflation and aggressive Fed tightening without tipping into a recession. In this episode, we talk with Adam Sacks, President of Tourism Economics, about the tourism industry’s challenges since 2020, how tourists have defied predictions of a consumer slowdown, and how spending strength has varied across geographies, income groups, and sectors.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is followed closely by financial market participants as an estimate for economic growth. Rather than looking at a long-term horizon, the model focuses only on the current quarter and updates its estimate after important monthly data reports, giving a real-time ability to check the pulse of the economy instead of waiting for each quarterly GDP release. In this episode, we talk with Patrick Higgins, Economist with the Atlanta Federal Reserve and creator of the GDPNow model, about how the model differs from other forecasts, its track record against the official GDP data, and the challenges of forecasting throughout the pandemic.

In his 1986 PhD thesis, Campbell Harvey identified the predictive power of the inverted yield curve through four business cycles. With curve inversion correctly foretelling three more recessions since then, investors this cycle have been anticipating an impending downturn ever since the yield curve inverted nearly two years ago. In this episode, we talk with Dr. Campbell Harvey, Professor of Finance at the Fuqua School of Business at Duke University, about the theoretical foundation connecting the inverted yield curve and recessions, whether this cycle could be different, and what it implies for Fed policy.

Although the Fed appears to be on the cusp of finally lowering interest rates, the rapid monetary tightening of the last two years has caused significant distress within commercial real estate (CRE). The bleakest doomsday predictions have not come to pass, but property owners have still experienced real losses as people shift to new post-pandemic ways of working and living. In this episode, we talk with Joey Kline, Executive Vice President at Jones Lang LaSalle, about where CRE stands more than a year into the Fed’s extended rate pause, how workplaces continue to evolve with hybrid work capabilities, and what areas are set to thrive in the post-pandemic economy.

Almost every state and local government worker in the US participates in a public pension system, creating a strong bond between the fiscal health of states and municipalities and their employees’ retirement systems. These smaller systems have faced the same demographic challenges driving concerns over Social Security’s funding, but they’ve also had to deal with rapid migration flows, fluctuating revenues, and the Fed’s aggressive interest rate hikes during the last four years. In this episode, we talk with JP Aubry, Associate Director of State and Local Research with the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, about how state and local pensions fit into the national retirement system, their impact on public budgets, and the biggest challenges they face in the coming years.

China’s booming real estate sector helped propel the country’s tremendous growth over the last few decades. This rapid increase in property valuations contributed to a speculative frenzy that led to overindebted firms, unfinished houses, and a collapse in consumer confidence for homeownership. In this episode, we talk with Kristy Hung, Senior Analyst for China Real Estate with Bloomberg Intelligence, about the fundamental forces driving China’s property sector, what caused recent issues at Evergrande and Country Garden, and global investors’ potential exposure to any systemic contagion. 

Oil prices have remained relatively steady during the last couple of years despite robust global demand and ongoing geopolitical risks from multiple foreign wars. The ability of domestic producers to increase production has played a large part in keeping prices in check, a notable contrast to only 20 years ago when the US was significantly more dependent on buying energy commodities from abroad. In this episode, we talk with Bryan Chapman, Market President for Energy Finance with First Horizon, about the multi-decade transformation of the US oil industry, the most important forces driving the industry today, and how oil companies are planning for the future.