Sinica Podcast

This week on Sinica, I'm delighted to be joined by Dan Wang, formerly of Gavekal Dragonomics and the Paul Tsai Law Center at Yale University, now with the Hoover Institute's History Lab. Dan's new book is Breakneck: China's Quest to Engineer the Future, and it's already one of the year's most talked-about books. In this conversation, we go beyond what's actually in the book to discuss the origins and implications of the Chinese "engineering state" — the world's biggest technocratic polity — and what the United States should and should not learn from China. We discuss how Dan's ideas sit with Abundance by Derek Thompson and Ezra Klein, and much more. Don't miss this episode!

03:51 – Guitar industry in Guizhou

09:49 – Engineering state vs. lawyerly society

23:13 – Downsides of the engineering state

34:24 – Process knowledge: U.S. vs. China

43:01 – Attitudes toward technology: U.S. vs China

52:32 – Historical roots of the engineering state in China

59:48 – Building institutions that bind outcomes to rights

01:04:15 – What can be learned from the COVID lockdowns

01:07:51 – The tradeoff between resilience and efficiency

01:10:52 – Dan's view on Derek Thompson and Ezra Klein's "Abundance" argument

01:13:41 – Legitimacy in China and the U.S.

01:21:13 – Building toward cultural pluralism

Paying it Forward: Afra Wang, He Liu.

Recommendations:

Dan: Mozart's Italian operas, written with Lorenzo Da Ponte; The Red and the Black by Stendhal; In Search of Lost Time by Marcel Proust; Moby Dick by Herman Melville; Bleak House by Charles Dickens.

Kaiser: China is enjoying Trump 2.0 by Yun Sun (article), books:  Revolutionary Spring, The Sleepwalkers by Christopher Clark

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Artificial intelligence has been a frequent topic on Sinica in recent years — but usually through the lens of the two countries that have produced the leading models and companies: the United States and China. We’ve covered generative AI, national strategies, governance frameworks, and the geopolitical implications of AI leadership.

This webinar, broadcast on the morning of August 14, broadens that lens to explore how other countries — and especially Ukraine — are approaching AI in the public sector. Around the world, governments are experimenting with AI well beyond chatbots and text generation: China’s “City Brain” optimizes traffic, energy use, and public safety; U.S. agencies are streamlining services and automating benefits processing; and elsewhere, smart grids, predictive infrastructure planning, and AI-enabled e-governance are reshaping public administration. These projects reveal both the promise and the complexity of bringing AI into government — along with valid concerns over privacy, fairness, and inclusiveness.

We’ll look at what lessons Ukraine might draw from U.S. and Chinese experiences, the opportunities and challenges of adapting these practices, and the strategic risks of sourcing AI solutions from different providers — especially in the context of Ukraine’s eventual postwar reconstruction.

Joining us are three distinguished guests:

• Dmytro Yefremov, Board Member of the Ukrainian Association of Sinologists, with deep expertise in China’s political and technological strategies and Ukraine’s policy landscape.
• Wang Guan, Chairman of Learnable.ai in China, bringing extensive experience in AI applications for public administration and education.
• Karman Lucero, Associate Research Scholar and Senior Fellow at Yale Law School’s Paul Tsai China Center, whose work focuses on Chinese law, governance, and the regulation of emerging technologies.

Thanks to the Ukrainian Platform for Contemporary China, the Ukrainian Association of Sinologists, and the Center for Slavic, Eurasian, and East European Studies at the University of North Carolina–Chapel Hill for organizing and sponsoring today’s event. Special thanks to Vita Golod for putting together the panel and inviting me to moderate.

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Join me for a conversation with four fantastic panelists about nuclear safety and security issues brought on by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and more broadly on the state of nuclear security globally during this era of dramatic change.

This program was made possible by the Ukrainian Platform for Contemporary China and the Center for Slavic, Eurasian, and East European Studies at the University of North Carolina Chapel Hill.

• Nickolas Roth is Senior Director for Nuclear Materials Security at the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI). Nickolas works at the intersection of arms control, risk reduction, and institutional resilience, and previously directed nuclear security work at the Stimson Center and contributed to Harvard’s Project on Managing the Atom.
• Mariana Budjeryn is a Senior Research Associate with Managing the Atom at Harvard’s Belfer Center and author of Inheriting the Bomb, a definitive study of Ukraine’s post-Soviet disarmament and the limits of the Budapest Memorandum. Her scholarship grounds today’s debates about guarantees, coercion, and nuclear restraint.
• Pan Yanliang is a Research Associate at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS). He studies the Russian and Chinese nuclear industries and the nuclear fuel cycle, and works on CNS engagement with Chinese counterparts—giving him a distinctive cross-regional vantage.
• Lily Wojtowicz is a Research Fellow at the Hertie School (Berlin) and a USIP–Minerva Peace & Security Scholar, whose work focuses on extended deterrence credibility, European security, and alliance adaptation under great-power rivalry.

5:19 - The Gap Between Coercive Rhetoric and First-use Thresholds

11:26 - The Implication of Ukraine’s allies regarding weapons 

17:26 - Golden Dome

21:30 - China’s Position on Nuclear Weapons

29:25 - How Belarus Altered European Debates

31:13 - Civilian Nuclear Power 

38:32 - North Korea’s Support for Russia

40:59 - Beijing on NATO and Asian Security

43:09 - Europe’s Reaction to Nuclear Risk

45:44 - Nuclear Risk in the Russia-Ukraine War

52:56 - Trump’s Impact on Kremlin Nuclear Thinking

1:01:52 - US-China Nuclear Relations

1:04:49 - Ukraine’s Nuclear Disarmament

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This week on Sinica, Paul Triolo of DGA Albright Stonebridge and tech investor Ryan Cunningham join to talk about their observations and insights from the World AI Conference (WAIC), held in July in Shanghai, and what it tells them about China's ambitions in the fast-moving world of artificial intelligence. Don't miss this one!

04:21 - Ryan on his Edgerunner fund

06:23 - Impressions of the World AI Conference in Shanghai

13:52 - Approaches to AI development in the US and China

24:04 - China’s role in global AI safety 

33:42 - AI market: US vs China

38:20 - AI diffusion in China

44:56 - AI safety frameworks

52:06 - Domestic development of Chinese AI

1:04:06 - Pressure of Domestic AI Alternatives

1:08:43 - Can AI have a dual role in the U.S.?

1:17:25 -Paying it Forward 

1:20:16 - Recommendations

Paying it Forward: Kevin Xu, Kyle Chan, Helen Toner (Rising Tide Substack),  

Piotr Mazurek and Felix Gabriel (LLM Inference Economics from First Principles).

Recommendations: Paul: Neil deGrasse Tyson - Origins: Fourteen Billion Years of Cosmic Evolution (book),  Sara Imari Walker’s Life As No One Knows It (book)

Ryan: Armored Core VI: Fires of Rubicon (video game)

Kaiser: The Studio (TV series), Platonic (TV series)

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This week on Sinica: On my final two days in Shaxi in Yunnan, Chris Thomas and Stephanie Li, the hosts of the marvelous YouTube channel Chinese Cooking Demystified, joined me for some cooking and lots of chatting about food! We recorded this show together and focus our conversation on their heroic attempt at a taxonomy of different Chinese cuisines. We don't talk about all 63 that they identify, but we do get into their

04:31 - Flavors of Yunnan 

08:44 - On balancing between the “exotic” and “normal” China 

11:53 - The origin story behind “Chinese Cooking Demystified”

14:56 - The Breath of the Wok (Wok Hei, 鑊氣 / huo6 hei3)

21:05 - A Comprehensive Taxonomy on Chinese Cuisine 

32:25 - Correlations between dialects and cuisine 

37:15 - Efforts behind the work

39:09 - Promoting local specialties

44:23 - Chinese identity and food trends

52:30 - "Minority" cuisine in Yunnan

01:00:52 - Yunnan cuisine and the Chinese hipster generation

01:05:52 - Dali dish recommendations

Recommendations: 

Chris & Steph: Shunde Lao Baby, Pin Nuo, Lao Dongbei

Kaiser: Taking time off to do something you love!

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I'm in Shaxi, a wonderful little town in the Dali Bai Autonomous Prefecture, and I was joined here by the Columbia economic historian Adam Tooze, who shared his thoughts on what he sees happening on the ground in China. Adam's been in China for the last month and reflects on his experiences learning about the country — and even attempting the language!

03:49 - The economic situation in China

10:42 - Patterns of consumption in China

14:38 - China’s industrial policy and renewable energy 

18:52 - China vs. the U.S. on renewables

26:15 - China’s economic engagement with the Global South

33:13- Beijing’s strategic shift and Europe’s rethinking

37:49- The recent European Parliament paper

42:43 - Learning about China as an “Outsider” 

51:31 - Adam’s evolving views on China 

59:30 - Paying it Forward

01:01:07 - Recommendations 

Paying it Forward: Kyle Chan, Pekingology.

Recommendations: Adam: Caught by the Tide, Jia Zhangke (movie).

Kaiser: Empire of AI: Dreams and Nightmares in Sam Altman’s OpenAI, Karen Hao (book), Vera, or Faith, Gary Shteyngart (book).

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This week on Sinica, in a show taped in early June in Washington, Kaiser chats with Tong Zhao (赵通) of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a leading expert on Chinese nuclear doctrine, about why the PRC has, in recent years, significantly increased the size of its nuclear arsenal. Zhao offers a master class in the practice of strategic empathy.

03:12 – China’s nuclear doctrine: core principles

06:56 – Xi Jinping’s leadership and nuclear policy

12:33 – Symbolism vs. strategy: Defensive or offensive buildup?

16:55 – What’s driving the nuclear expansion?

28:33 – Trump’s second term: Impact on China’s strategic thinking

34:34 – Nukes and Taiwan

41:45 – Washington and Beijing nuclear doctrines perceptions

48:04 - China’s perspective on the Golden Dome program

52:32 - China’s Stance on North Korea’s nuclear program 

01:01:00 - Beijing’s View on North Korean troops in Ukraine

Paying it forward: David Logan, at Tufts University

Recommendations:

Tong:  Yellowstone, TV series 

Kaiser: Gomorrah, TV series 

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In 2014, the writer Christopher Beam published a humorous, heartwarming story in The New Republic about an unlikely team of American football enthusiasts in Chongqing who went on to defeat their archrivals in Shanghai to win a championship. The piece was optioned by Sony Pictures, and had some big names attached, but was ultimately never made — not, at least, by an American studio. Eleven years later, Chris has written about a film that was made: Clash, produced by iQiyi, hit theaters in China earlier this year and followed the Chongqing Dockers in the same story arc, but with important and telling differences. His new story was published in The Atlantic, and he talks to me about the Dockers and the long, strange story of the film that wasn't and the one that was.

03:50 – The Meaning of Chinese YOLO

05:33 – Chris’s First Meeting With the Chongqing Team

13:11 – Chris McLaurin’s Background

15:54 – American Football as a Symbol of Masculinity

19:50 – The Failed Hollywood Adaptation

25:34 – First Impressions of the Film

31:55 – Bridging Perspectives: Can a Movie Speak To Both Sides?

36:42 – A Lost Moment in Globalization

Paying it Forward: Viola Zhou

Recommendations: 

Chris: Rejection by Tony Tulathimutte (short story collection)

Kaiser: Becoming Led Zeppelin (documentary); the Beijing-based artist Michael Cherney.

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This week on Sinica, I chat with Stephen Platt, historian at UMass Amherst and author, most recently, of the book The Raider: The Untold Story of a Renegade Marine and the Birth of U.S. Special Forces in World War II. Like his previous works, Autumn in the Heavenly Kingdom and Imperial Twilight, it offers a compelling narrative history of an overlooked chapter through a deeply empathetic and well-researched examination of individual lives. Please make sure to listen to the excerpt from the audiobook at the end of this podcast.

04:21 - Evans Carlson: A forgotten hero

07:49 - The Real Carlson vs. the constructed Carlson

10:04 - The book's origin

12:20 - Carlson's ideological transformation

16:50 - Carlson's religious beliefs and public perception

20:04 - Emerson's influence on Carlson's thinking 

23:46 - Inner conflicts: Soul-searching or regret?

27:15 - Carlson's relationship with President Franklin D. Roosevelt

30:39 - Gung Ho Meetings: meaning, practice, and legacy

33:34 - Zhu De’s influence on Carlson 

40:28 - Carlson’s relationships with Agnes Smedley and Edgar Snow

47:49 - Hopes for U.S.-China alliance 

51:57 - Carlson’s death and his legacy 

58:01 - Lessons from Carlson

Paying it Forward: Peter Thilly, Emily Mokros

Recommendations: 

Stephen: 11.22.63 by Stephen King; Ted Chiang (author); Otoboke Beaver (band); Book of Mormon (musical)

Kaiser: Wobbler (band); The Religion by Tim Willocks; Zappa (2020)

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This week on Sinica, I chat with Jostein Hauge, political economist and an Assistant Professor in Development Studies at the University of Cambridge, based at the Centre of Development Studies and the Department of Politics and International Studies, and author of the book The Future of the Factory: How Megatrends are Changing Industrialization.

3:09 – Self Introduction: Jostein Hauge

4:23 – Anti-China Sentiment in Western Discourse

7:40 – Misconceptions and Prevailing Narratives

10:08 – Technological Transfer and the Political Economy

12:18 – Historical Periods of Economic Rivalry 

14:36 – Evolving Industrial Policy: From Japan’s MITI to China and the U.S. today

18:59 – China’s Contemporary Industrial Policy: Quality or Quantity? 

21:13 – China as a Rising Power: Is History Repeating?

24:18 – The Sustainability of China’s Industrial Policy 

26:43 – China, Overcapacity, and Global Imbalances

34:07 – Overcapacity: Economic Reality or Ideological Construct?

36:04 – China's domination in the renewable energy market

39:13 – China’s greenhouse gas emissions

43:17 – How China is reshaping the IP regime 

48:14 – The U.S. national security stance and the trade war with China

55:10 – Europe’s approach to China

Paying it forward: Kyle Chan at High Capacity

Recommendations:

Jostein: The White Lotus (TV Series)

Kaiser: The Raider: The Untold Story of a Renegade Marine and the Birth of U.S. Special Forces in World War II by Stephen R. Platt

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