Sinica Podcast

This week as we enter the Year of the Snake, Sinica co-founder Jeremy Goldkorn makes a re-appearance on the show. It's been a year since his last, and much has changed — and indeed, if Jeremy is right, we may be at an inflection point in American attitudes toward China. With the "TikTok Refugees" on Xiaohongshu or "RedNote" taking in a view of China that contrasts starkly with the image presented by the U.S. Government and by many American media outlets, and with DeepSeek now having upended some ideas about American tech primacy, the "vibes" on China among young people seem to have changed for the better. Will it endure? Jeremy and I plunge into that question on this week's episode of the Sinica Podcast.

2:55 – What Jeremy has been up to lately 

4:19 – What has been driving the recent narrative/vibe shift in China discourse in the U.S., and why human rights rhetoric around Xinjiang has died down  

14:11 – Whether the narrative/vibe shift will be long-lasting and the role of young people in driving it 

23:06 – Predictions for future changes within China

29:40 – The concern that the narrative/vibe shift could go too far, or that the copium will overwhelm the positive of the shift 

33:24 – Previous narrative shifts around freedom of speech, the internet, and China, and technological innovation 

43:57 – What recent developments reveal about Chinese soft power, and Jeremy’s predictions for how everything will play out 

49:34 – Whether the narrative/vibe shift will change how American politicians talk about China, and the Chinese government has reacted to the shift so far

Paying It Forward: Savannah Billman’s Career China email newsletter 

Recommendations:

Jeremy: Paul Cooper’s Fall of Civilizations podcast series; David Kidd’s Peking Story: The Last Days of Old China; and The 404’s podcast interview with a PornHub exec (which includes discussion of real-name registration requirements) 

Kaiser: The TV miniseries American Primeval (2025) on Netflix; and Paul Triolo’s Substack 

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Happy Chinese New Year! This week, while I'm decompressing from 10 days in the Alps, my friends at the Asia Society of Switzerland have graciously offered to let me share a podcast recorded just after the U.S. presidential election in November at their annual State of Asia event. "The State of China" features three terrific guests: Wang Qing (王卿), the host of the popular Chinese podcast "The Weirdo" (不合时宜), Zichen Wang of the Center for China and Globalization, and Adam Tooze, one of the truly great public intellectuals of our time. It's all skillfully moderated by the South China Morning Post's Europe editor, Finbarr Bermingham, and it covers a lot of ground.

I'll be back next week in conversation with my dear friend Jeremy Goldkorn, and we'll be asking (and answering) the big question — Are we in the middle of a narrative shift on China?

May the Year of the Snake be prosperous and full of happiness and success for all you Sinica listeners!

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This week, I bring you the first in a series of podcasts in conjunction with the China Research Center at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). The series, titled "Studying China in the Absence of Access: Rediscovering a Lost Art," ran from September to November 2021, and featured four eminent "Pekingologists," or specialists in Chinese elite politics: Joseph Fewsmith, Thomas Fingar, Alice Miller, and Fred Teiwes. The talks were later published in a volume you can download here. The series is introduced by Andrew Mertha, George and Sadie Hyman, Professor of China Studies and director of the SAIS China Research Center, and each lecture includes a moderated discussion with Andy. After this series, I'll also be sharing with you a second series of lectures titled "Studying China from Elsewhere," which will include talks by Maria Repnikova, Mike Lampton, William Hurst, and Maggie Lewis — many of whom Sinica listeners will know from the show.

This week's talk is from FrederickTeiwes, truly a legend in the field. The American-born Australian sinologist is best known for his analysis of Chinese Communist Party elite politics. He served as a professor emeritus in Government and International Relations at the University of Sydney until his retirement in 2006. Teiwes has frequently collaborated with Warren Sun, producing seminal works such as The Tragedy of Lin Biao (1996) and China’s Road to Disaster: Mao, Central Politicians and Provincial Leaders in the Great Leap Forward, 1955-59 (1999). In this talk, he focuses on forthcoming work on the transition following Mao Zedong's death in 1976.

Great thanks to Andy and to Hasta Colman, who first suggested this collaboration when we met in Shanghai recently.

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I know I'd said last time there would be no show this week, but that was before this fascinating episode involving TikTok users signing up en masse to Xiaohongshu. Hilarity ensued, and my two guests — Ivy Yang, who runs Wavelet Strategy, an expert in cross-cultural communication, and David Fishman, Shanghai-based senior manager at Lantau Group who specializes in the Chinese energy sector and writes wonderfully about his excursions into the Chinese countryside. They've both been following this fascinating episode closely and have really smart things to say, so enjoy!

5:10 – How the migration of American Tiktokers to Xiaohongshu started 

8:51 – A brief overview of Xiaohongshu: its users, typical content, and culture, including its “we’re all in this together” vibe  

15:35 – The significance of Xiaohongshu as a Chinese app 

19:48 – The scale of the American TikTok refugees phenomenon, and official reactions in the U.S.

24:52 – How Xiaohongshu has managed and reacted to the refugee phenomenon so far, and the PR opportunity presented for the PRC

29:33 – The Chinese government’s perspective 

34:54 – Wholesome and interesting exchanges, and what American and Chinese users are finding surprising or amusing about each other’s cultures

38:50 – Why this new online encounter between Chinese and Americans is different from before 

43:23 – The danger of irrational exuberance, and other risks the Xiaohongshu migration phenomenon presents 

47:52 – The potential for a change in American thinking about China 

Paying It Forward: 

Ivy: Caiwei Chen

David: Robert Wu and Amber Zhang, especially their work on Baiguan, and Robert’s Substack China Translated, especially his essay, “The Great Divorce”

Recommendations:

Ivy: Dopamine Nation: Finding Balance in the Age of Indulgence by Dr. Anna Lembke 

David: Oracle Bones: A Journey Through Time in China by Peter Hessler

Kaiser: Other works by Peter Hessler (River Town: Two Years on the Yangtze; Country Driving: A Chinese Road Trip; and Other Rivers: A Chinese Education), and Telecaster type electric guitars, especially the Sire Larry Carlton T7

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This week on Sinica, I'm joined by Lizzi Lee, fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute and by my lights one of the most astute, well-informed people writing on China in the English-speaking world today. She has fascinating perspectives on China's preparations for the Trump administration, on China's reluctance to roll out large-scale cash stimulus, and Xi Jinping's challenges. Don't miss this one! (I will update the show notes and publish the transcript early next week — thanks for your patience!)

3:39 – Lizzi’s argument from her op-ed, “Counting the Hawks in the Trump 2.0 Administration is Pointless”: the importance of which country will be able to get its act together 

10:25 – U.S.-China competition as a long game, from China’s perspective

14:22 – How China views the current state of division in American politics

19:00 – The main risks and opportunities for China presented by Trump’s return, including opportunities in the geopolitical realm with the Europeans 

28:09 – The state of China’s domestic economy

33:28 – Counterarguments to critiques of China’s cautious deployment of stimulus, and where Lizzi stands on the issue 

43:46 – Lizzi’s thoughts on deflation in the Chinese economy 

49:30 – The idea of accepting short-term pain for long-term gain in economic recovery 

53:59 – Xi Jinping’s vision for China’s economy 

58:46 – How Xi Jinping’s ideological language can be challenging for officials and markets 

1:03:57 – How China’s political calendar has hindered execution of policy 

1:06:42 – What Lizzi thinks the Chinese leadership should prioritize now

Paying it Forward: Lizzi recommends the work of Barclay Bram, especially his series on Chinese youth at the Asia Society here.

Recommendations:

Lizzi: Grazia Ting Deng’s book Chinese Espresso: Contested Race and Convivial Space in Contemporary Italy

Kaiser: More historical fiction by Robert Harris, including An Officer and a Spy and Munich.

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This week on Sinica, I speak with Nicole Hong and Michael Rothfeld, both investigative reporters at the New York Times, about a series of stories they've done, stretching between August and December 2024, on the Falun Gong-run performance troupe Shen Yun, and the Falun Gong-affiliated newspaper The Epoch Times. Read the latest two articles in that series here and here. There will be links to the other stories on the transcript page.

4:33 – Nicole and Michael's collection of pieces on Falun Gong 

6:26 – Background on [the?] Falun Gong: Li Hongzhi, the context out of which the movement emerged, its international spread, and the CCP’s crackdown in the '90s

12:00 – Shen Yun performances, and audience reactions 

18:46 – Following the money: Falun Gong’s dramatic financial growth, gray areas, and where the money goes 

29:03 – Spiritual project or big grift?

31:39 – What Nicole and Michael uncovered 

36:23 – Memorable individuals: Chang Chun-ko, Kate the performer, and Josh the violinist

41:10 – The dynamics within [the?] Falun Gong, and what has been alleged

45:34 – The Epoch Times, and their editorial changes 

53:02 – The appeal of Falun Gong, and the level of scrutiny it gets

Paying It Forward:

Nicole: Researchers/freelancers/translators Yi Liu and Peiyue Wu 

Michael: New York Times colleague Susan Beachy 

Recommendations:

Nicole: Connie: A Memoir by Connie Chung 

Michael: Like Water for Chocolate by Laura Esquivel; One Hundred Years of Solitude by Gabriel Garcia Marquez (and the new One Hundred Years of Solitude TV series (2024)); and the TV series Gomorrah (2014-2021)

Kaiser: TikTok accounts workplace_doodles (a former Shen Yun performer born into a Falun Gong family) and cocolarkincooks (a fantastic cooking resource)

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This week on Sinica, I welcome back Michael Cerny — formerly of the Carter Center and now a Ph.D. student at Harvard — and Rory Truex of Princeton University to discuss a new working paper they've co-authored. They undertook a large-scale survey of foreign policy professionals at U.S. think tanks to ascertain whether there is a "consensus" on China policy, as is often claimed, and whether people working in think tanks feel pressure to take on more "hawkish" positions on China policy. We also introduce a new segment called "Paying it Forward."

5:04 – What motivated Michael and Rory to write their paper together 

7:30 – Groupthink vs. consensus

10:08 – The methodology: combining surveys and interviews, and the sampling frame 

14:35 – Trying to avoid leading questions 

17:58 – Creating the “China Confrontation Index” 

20:25 – Different levels of acceptance of the labels “hawk” and “dove” 

23:33 – The issue of preference falsification 

25:43 – Mechanisms behind disparities in perceived pressure 

29:01 – Tying in Rory’s previous research on self-censorship 

32:42 – How Michael and Rory decided on interviews 

34:10 – What Michael believes were the most important and robust findings

36:09 – The distinction between the beliefs of think tankers vs. elected officials, and why people tend to believe there is a bipartisan consensus on China 

40:34 – Pressure on hawks 

42:35 – Specific policy questions

44:18 – Feedback on the paper so far, and what Michael and Rory may tweak in a subsequent draft 

49:47 – The possible role of personality in hawkishness or dovishness 

51:58 – Discussing Mike Mazarr’s concerns about the potential parallels between current Chinese discourse and the lead-up to the Iraq War 

55:06 – Advice to younger professionals entering the foreign policy/China field 

New segment: Paying It Forward:

Rory: Michael Cerny and Edi Obiakpani-Reid 

Recommendations:

Rory: Edi Obiakpani-Reid’s Sinobabble podcast about Chinese history

Michael: Jeffrey Ding’s Technology and the Rise of Great Powers: How Diffusion Shapes Economic Competition

Kaiser: Imperium by Robert Harris 

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This week on Sinica I'm delighted to be joined by Amy King, Associate Professor in the Strategic & Defence Studies Centre at The Australian National University. She shares her ideas about how perceptions of insecurity can paradoxically motivate closer economic relations between two states, and she looks at not only the examples of China and Japan after the end of World War II, but Australia and China as well. We also discuss Sino-Australian relations over the last 15 years, and much else!

2:48 – Key phases of Australia-China relations over the past 15 years and the security and economic nexus 

9:05 – Amy’s research into the Sino-Japanese relationship and how perceptions of insecurity can motivate closer economic ties, and how Australia is responding to China now 

21:22 – How Amy would argue the case for economic engagement with China to folks in Washington 

26:31 – Securitization in Australia and the important differences between Australia and the U.S. 

30:20 – The shift in the Australia-China relationship under the Albanese government 

33:12 – What the U.S. can learn from Australia 

35:14 – Why people tend to conflate Australia’s experience with America’s 

39:04 – Amy’s essay, “The Collective Logic of Chinese Hegemonic Order,” and how we can understand China’s role in the emerging post-unipolar world

42:47 – Three mechanisms employed by China to amplify its voice post-war  (amplifying, grafting, and resistance by appropriation) and how modern “middle powers” can influence the international order now 

52:31 – The state of discourse on China in Australia and what Amy believes China wants 

58:54 – Amy’s thoughts on pluralism and international order 

1:03:22 – What lessons about de-risking and navigating multi-alignment Australia should be learning from other nations in the region 

Recommendations:

Amy: Fintan O’Toole’s We Don’t Know Ourselves: A Personal History of Modern Ireland 

Kaiser: The Paul Reed Smith (PRS) SE Hollowbody II Piezo electric guitar

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China's rapid surge in electric vehicle manufacturing, adoption, and export has variously encouraged, delighted, impressed, frightened, and even enraged people around the world. What did China get right in facilitating the explosive development in this industry? Was is just subsidies, or were there other important policies that helped jumpstart it? How have other geographies responded? And what can they learn? Ilaria Mazzocco,  deputy director and senior fellow with the Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) joins me to share her rich insights into the Chinese EV industry.

3:49 – How Ilaria became interested in green industrial policy

5:59 – The reality of progress in EVs in China 

11:21 – The role of state subsidies and other things that tend to get missed in trying to understand EVs in China 

16:51 – How other countries are trying to adopt China’s approach 

19:21 – The differences between the EU and U.S. approaches 

24:17 – The outlook for competition in the Chinese market 

26:08 – Business models in the Chinese EV sector and the example of BYD

30:53 – Chinese firms’ push for internationalization and how the rapidity of becoming multinationals [multinational companies?] may pose challenges 

35:54 – Alignment between host countries and Chinese companies 

39:58 – What the U.S. is doing and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)

42:27 – How U.S. protectionist measures may affect third markets, and whether restrictions may backfire  

48:57 – The coming shift to next-generation batteries, and the potential for international collaboration in advancing more circular practices 

55:43 – How Ilaria’s fieldwork shifted her perspective on the EV industry 

59:38 – How we can improve industrial policy 

Recommendations:

Ilaria: My Antonia by Willa Cather; the Wolf Hall trilogy by Hilary Mantel; The Army of Sleepwalkers by Wu Ming (an Italian novelist collective) about the French Revolution 

Kaiser: The Wolf Hall audiobooks read by Ben Miles; the HBO series Rome (2005-2007) 

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This week on Sinica, I chat with Jane Hayward, lecturer at King's College London, about her excellent YouTube channel, Jane Hayward China, and her efforts to bring up-to-date scholarship on modern and contemporary China to audiences through internet video, slaying various bugbears along the way.

3:28 Why Jane started her YouTube channel, her intended versus actual audiences, and navigating the current toxic media environment 

10:56 The benefits of an area studies approach, and why Jane chose a U.S. PhD program

14:46 Defining the complicated public discourse in the West 

19:35 Jane’s videos: the surprising popularity of “Xi Jinping is NOT like an Emperor;” and more controversial videos

26:28 New Qing History and different critiques of it

34:50 Jane's series on types of communism, and her video on reporting on China in British media 

42:31 What may be coming next on Jane’s channel 

Recommendations

Jane: David Priestland’s The Red Flag: A History of Communism

Kaiser: The YouTube channel Chinese Cooking Demystified, and specifically their video “63 Chinese Cuisines: the Complete Guide” 

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