Talking Data

By Arbor Research & TradingBusiness

Talking Data episodes

October 28, 2020 #16: The Election and Markets
Welcome to Talking Data LIVE. This is the sixteenth edition of our podcast series: Talking Data which offers timely insights into macro data and its impact on the economy and markets. I am Kristen Radosh of Arbor Research & Trading and I will be today’s host.

Our podcast features Jim Bianco of Bianco Research and Ben Breitholtz of Arbor Data Science. We are one week away from the big day, Jim and Ben will update you on the latest numbers and potential impact on Markets.

Topics Include:
• Updating the election "Horse Race." Why do the polls and betting markets not agree?
• Are betting markets overly biased by financial markets? - Search activity leans towards pollsters’ expectations.
• The tails will clearly impact investors most, what are the implications for financial markets of a massive blue wave versus narrow win by Biden or even Trump victory?
- What about the Senate?

For further information please contact Gus Handler at [email protected] or visit www.biancoresearch.com or www.datascience.arborresearch.com
39 min
October 26, 2020 #15: Are we entering a Breakout?
Welcome to the fifteenth edition of our podcast series: Talking Data which offers timely insights into macro data and its impact on the economy and markets.
Today’s podcast features Jim Bianco of Bianco Research and Ben Breitholtz of Arbor Data Science. Today we will focus on the bond market and yields.

Are we entering a Breakout?
• Yields are breaking out to the upside. If one believes lower for longer, how high will the Fed let rates go?
• Is this about a looming stimulus deal and no more? Or, is it something more?
• Questions from today’s conference call:
- Should I add to my TIPS position now, or wait until after the Election?
- There is a lot of confusion on MMT. How would that come into play based on the Election results?

For further information on Arbor Research, Bianco Research and Arbor Data Science, please contact Gus Handler at [email protected].
22 min
October 23, 2020 Announcing our LIVE Podcast; Tuesday, October 27th at 2 PM CT on the Election
Just us Tuesday, October 27th at 2 PM Ct for our first LIVE version of our podcast series Talking Data featuring Jim Bianco of Bianco Research and Ben Breitholtz of Arbor Data Science.

Jim and Ben will provide their insights on the Election as we went the final days before November 3rd.

Listeners will have the ability to submit questions.

For registration information, please email Gus Handler at [email protected] or visit https://www.biancoresearch.com/

In addition you can follow Jim on Twitter at @biancoresearch
1 min
October 22, 2020 #14: Alternative Data and Machine Learning
Welcome to the fourteenth edition of our podcast series: Talking Data which offers timely insights into macro data and its impact on the economy and markets.
Today’s podcast features Ben Breitholtz and Pete Forbes of Arbor Data Science. Ben and Pete will be discussing Alternative Data and Machine Learning.
Topics Include:
• Why is alternative data having a moment in 2020?
• What is an under-rated tool in using machine learning to predict financial markets and the economy?
• What is the biggest challenge in applying machine learning to financial markets?
• Data topics today:
- Housing Market: Building permits and single family construction
- COVID-19 spread via Google Search
- Rising uncertainty among officials via NLP of press conferences

For further information on Arbor Research, Bianco Research and Arbor Data Science, please contact Gus Handler at [email protected].
18 min
October 20, 2020 #13: Inflation, Issuance and Bond Vigilantes
Welcome to the thirteenth edition of our podcast series: Talking Data which offers timely insights into macro data and its impact on the economy and markets.

Our podcast features Jim Bianco of Bianco Research and Ben Breitholtz of Arbor Data Science.
Today’s topics are Inflation, Bond Issuance and the Bond Vigilantes.

• U.S. CPI disappoints away from core commodities
- Are TIPS breakevensattractive?
- When could inflation become a noteworthy story?
• The Federal Reserve is keeping a tight leash on volatility
- Issuance will be ballooning, is this QE forever? See Quarles.
- Will Powell et al push purchases further out the curve before year-end?
- Has the Fed's support of credit markets run its course?
• The quest for safety or safe havens
- Will U.S. Treasuries offer diversification?
- Where are investors to turn?

For further information on Arbor Research, Bianco Research and Arbor Data Science, please contact Gus Handler at [email protected].
27 min
October 15, 2020 #12: What Stories Really Matter?
• Welcome to the twelfth edition of our podcast series: Talking Data which offers timely insights into macro data and its impact on the economy and markets.

• Our podcast features Jim Bianco of Bianco Research and Ben Breitholtz of Arbor Data Science.

Topics Include:
• Politics
- The Election
- Fiscal Stimulus
• COVID-19
- A second wave coming?
- Vaccine/Therapeutics
• The Economy
- The progress on re-opening

For further information on Arbor Research, Bianco Research and Arbor Data Science, please contact Gus Handler at [email protected].
24 min
October 13, 2020 #11: Claims and Jobs
• Welcome to the eleventh edition of our podcast series: Talking Data which offers timely insights into macro data and its impact on the economy and markets.

• Our podcast features Jim Bianco of Bianco Research and Ben Breitholtz of Arbor Data Science.

• U.S. unemployment claims remained elevated at 840,000 last week as the labor market flashes signs of a slowdown and more layoffs become permanent.

• CA can't count! How is that affecting claims?
- The state currently accounts for over 28% of all initial claims in the country. Prior to the pandemic, the state typically accounted for 10%-20% of all initial claims in the country.
- Once they get rid of the fraud, will the numbers DROP?
• What does Google Search say about jobs?
- The job applications topic has retreated over the past two weeks. JOLTS job openings corroborate the slowdown, falling in August for the first time in four months.
• The reopening is slowing
- Back in June, the consensus was expecting a massive growth quarter of more than 11%. This forecast has been falling hard and is now just 3.58%. While 3.5% is a decent quarter, there are no assurances this forecast is done falling.

For further information on Arbor Research, Bianco Research and Arbor Data Science, please contact Gus Handler at [email protected].
23 min
October 08, 2020 #10: Is the Bond Market Finally Awakening?
Welcome to the tenth edition of our podcast series: Talking Data which offers timely insights into macro data and its impact on the economy and markets.
Our podcast features Jim Bianco of Bianco Research and Ben Breitholtz of Arbor Data Science.

We have been asking when the bond market will wake up. Today we will be discussing if we are starting to see signs of life.

Topics Include:
• Are Long-end yields and inflation at a critical juncture?
- Will yields rise or fall into the end of 2020? 2021?
- When could inflation (core or headline) finally pierce 2% YoY?
• How will further fiscal stimulus and a Biden victory factor in?
- Do deficits matter?
- Can the Fed counter-act with dovish policy?
• Investors are already positioned/hedged for higher yields, does this matter?
- How does the Fed's QE impact rates?Investors are already positioned/hedged for higher yields, does this matter?
- How does the Fed's QE impact rates?

For more information, please contact Gus Handler at [email protected]
21 min
October 06, 2020 #9: Is the Election About to Take Center Stage?
Welcome to the ninth edition of our podcast series: Talking Data which offers timely insights into macro data and its impact on the economy and markets.

The Presidential Election is on everyone’s mind including investors. We have had the first debate, what are the changes in the Polls versus the Betting Markets?

• Biden is leading in the polls
- Betting markets see a Closer Race than the Polls
- Investors Align with the Betters
• If the Polls are Correct, this is Not Discounted in the Markets
• How do you perceive the Election is going to impact the financial markets?
- Who is better for the Markets? Trump or Biden?
• Trump’s Approval Rating and the Generic Ballot
• A Listener had a Question: What if there is not a Clear Winner?
- If it is January 20, 2021 and no one has been declared a Winner, what happens next?

For further information on Arbor Research, Bianco Research and Arbor Data Science, please contact Gus Handler at [email protected].
19 min
October 01, 2020 #8: What Does a COVID Second Wave Mean?
Welcome to the eighth edition of our podcast series: Talking Data, which offers timely insights into macro data and its impact on the economy and markets. Our podcast features Jim Bianco of Bianco Research.

In today’s installment, Jim will provide his insight on the second wave of COVID.

Topics Include:
• Europe is having a second wave. What does it mean?
- How bad is it and what are the changes?
- Will/can it spread to the US?

• Will a second wave stall financial markets/the economy?
- Valuations are high. The market needs faster growth that justify current levels.
- The problem is the economy is stalling and a second wave will pull back economic activity even further.

• Will any of this move interest rates?
- Higher rates implied a return on inflation and lower rates imply a serious economic downturn. Either is a problem for risk assets.

• Will a "medical bailout" save us?
- The game changer is a vaccine or treatment. But when?
- goodjudgement.io says "not before July 1."

For more information please contact Gus Handler at [email protected]
14 min

About Talking Data

From the publisher's feed

Welcome to Talking Data: A series of podcasts hosted by Arbor Research featuring Jim Bianco of Bianco Research, Sam Rines and Petr Pinkhasov of Arbor Data Science.