The 10-Minute Take

The COVID crisis delivered a bigger shock to our economy than most expected. Ottawa is forecasting an enormous $343 billion deficit in 2020, which pushes the federal debt load past the $1 trillion mark for the first time. With the worst behind us, the focus now is how to sustain the early economic recovery and especially, how to get Canadians back to work. Can Canada take on more debt without further risking our sovereign credit rating? And how will the federal government transition people from the CERB relief program to more productive wage subsidies or other schemes? Craig Wright, RBC's Chief Economist, shares his take on Canada's fiscal snapshot.

The U.S. gained nearly 5 million jobs in June, but that was before the latest COVID-19 outbreaks. Now, state re-opening plans are being put on hold, if not dialed back – with almost certain economic consequences. And yet, markets are partying like it's 2019 – Dow Jones had its best quarter since 1987, Nasdaq hit a record high. But just how far will the Fed go to support the economy? And will markets get a reality check? Tom Porcelli, RBC Capital Markets' Chief U.S. Economist, shares his update on the U.S. economy.

If content is king, then streaming platforms are its thrones. And those thrones are getting higher and higher as consumers cut the cord with traditional media providers. Audiences have been seeking refuge in front of their screens and services like Netflix, Amazon Prime, and HBO Max have offered their entertaining alms in-kind. But can these producers continue to satiate the people's growing hunger for quality content, especially with halted production around the world? And who among them can survive the ongoing streaming wars? Kutgun Maral, RBC Capital Markets' Media Analyst, shares his outlook on streaming services.

For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.

While most people have been under lockdowns, The Everything Store has been everywhere. The explosive demand for online shopping and surge in remote work have been boons for both Amazon's core retail offering and AWS, its cloud computing business. But can the company capture and sustain this once-in-a-generation opportunity? And how will ongoing antitrust probes in both the U.S. and E.U. affect its growth? Mark Mahaney, RBC Capital Markets' Internet Analyst, shares his take on Amazon.​

For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.

The COVID-19 crisis dealt employees a serious blow, and young people have been hit particularly hard with a nearly 30% unemployment rate. The summer months – crucial for internships, seasonal, and starting careers – might not be much better, as employers may call back their furloughed full-timers before hiring students. How will these setbacks affect this cohort's long-term employment prospects? And how effective have government relief programs actually been? Dawn Desjardins, RBC's Deputy Chief Economist, shares the outlook on the youth labour market.

For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.

Last week, Saskatchewan, PEI, and Quebec gave updates on their economic and fiscal situation. They weren't pretty, but there's been enough of a boost in activity that RBC Economics has adjusted its forecasts. Quebec was the most dramatic example, with the return of 30,000 jobs. Saskatchewan and PEI, meanwhile, also showed how much damage has been done, with declines in government revenues of 8-10%. Robert Hogue, RBC Senior Economist, shares his update on provincial economic recoveries.​

Read the Saskatchewan report: https://bit.ly/2Ynowk3

Read the PEI report: https://bit.ly/3dsl1wR

Read the Quebec report: https://bit.ly/2BrLihG

For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.

Practically overnight, legions of office workers shifted to working from home as their employers figure out how to keep them productive. That meant installing (or improving) video conferencing tools, messaging apps and the like – keys to an effective distributed workforce. Now, employers are going a step further to reimagine the first principles of work – from location dependent to location agnostic. Welcome to Work 2.0. What will this mean for employees? And how are software firms capitalizing on this opportunity? Alex Zukin, Software Equity Analyst at RBC Capital Markets, shares how the workplace is transforming.

For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.

Canada's major telecom operators are forging ahead with their plans to build 5G networks, despite government delays on the decision to allow Huawei to bid and the 3,500 Mhz wireless spectrum auction. At least Canada has strong 4G networks, which may tide us over 5G's decade-long build. But as the crisis has revealed, connectivity is key to thriving in the new economy. Could these delays affect Canada's growth? And how might telcos address the digital divide between urban, and rural and remote communities? Drew McReynolds, RBC Capital Markets' Telecommunications and Media Analyst, shares what's ahead for telecom.

For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.

Ongoing protests against racism and violence towards Black communities have hit a boiling point, forcing companies everywhere to re-examine their practices and histories. In addition to questions about police practices and systemic racism across all parts of society, corporate America is being challenged anew on its own record. Black executives hold only 3% of leadership roles in U.S. companies, and only 2% of venture capital dollars goes to African American entrepreneurs. What more can the private sector do? Michael Carter, RBC Capital Markets’ Global Head of Technology Investment Banking and a member of the Washington-based Executive Leadership Council, shares his perspective on how companies can confront racism.

For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.

Global stock markets plunged after the U.S. Federal Reserve issued grim economic projections for the rest of 2020 and beyond. Budding investor optimism was quickly replaced with the sobering reality of a weak economy and a jump in COVID cases in some U.S. states. Will we see the Fed intervene again? And what could the stock market rout mean for other asset classes? George Davis, Chief Technical Strategist in Foreign Exchange Trading at RBC Capital Markets, shares his take on what's behind the latest market movements.

For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.