The 10-Minute Take

The Atlantic Provinces faced blows of differing magnitudes to their economies in March and April. Newfoundland and Labrador had the double-whammy of the COVID-19 crisis plus a collapse in oil prices, whereas Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and P.E.I. were impacted similarly to the rest of Canada. Their respective recoveries will likely be just as diverse. With most of the impact hopefully in the past, the provinces can expect some recovery over the second half of this year into 2021. RBC Senior Economist Robert Hogue joins us with the outlook for Atlantic Canada.

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The COVID-19 crisis pummeled Ontario's economy and forced more than 1 million people out of a job over the past two months. While the province has avoided the worst scenarios, the government isn't taking any chances. It's chosen a methodical and cautious approach to re-opening, meaning its recovery will be gradual as well. What implications will that have for its diverse economy? How might it handle potential global supply chain disruptions? RBC Senior Economist Robert Hogue joins us with the outlook for Ontario.

For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.

The economies of two of the Prairie Provinces have been relatively shielded from the COVID-19 damage, at least compared to the rest of the country, given their shorter lockdowns. However, they face headwinds: Manitoba's manufacturing base is vulnerable to global supply chain disruptions, whereas Saskatchewan has had to deal with falling oil prices and international trade disputes. Despite that, both provinces will likely see modest recoveries through to next year. RBC Senior Economist Robert Hogue joins us with the outlook for Manitoba and Saskatchewan

For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.

"Double-whammy" might be an understatement for what's happening with Alberta's economy. The twin shocks of oil prices and COVID-19 resulted in job losses in March and April that were worse than the last four recessions combined. But in a positive sign, the government recently put out an ambitious plan to reboot its economy and start a long and winding path to recovery. RBC Senior Economist Robert Hogue joins us with the outlook for Alberta.

For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.

While B.C.'s forecasted GDP decline of 5% for 2020 is the worst ever in the province, it's better relative to more than -7% across Canada. That's encouraging news, especially as the province forges ahead with re-opening its economy. It allowed non-essential businesses to stay open through March and April, and given the prominence of its tech sector (tech has outperformed throughout the crisis), might feel even bullish about its recovery. RBC Senior Economist Robert Hogue joins us with the outlook for British Columbia.

For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.

Hopes for a V-shaped recovery – a short, sharp collapse followed by a bounce-back to pre-crisis activity – have been replaced by expectations of a “swoosh.” That is, a large drop followed by a slow incline. To bend the curve, Canadian policy makers have focused the latest round of relief on business. But how effective can these new measures be when much of the economy remains closed? Craig Wright, RBC's Chief Economist, joins us with his outlook for the private sector and a broader recovery.

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The U.S. equities market has rebounded upwards of 30% from its low in March, driven by plenty of good news and investor optimism. But the road ahead is full of curves and unknowns that could slow the momentum or worse. Looking in the rearview mirror, previous recessions offer a roadmap to guide the recovery journey. Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets' Head of U.S. Equity Strategy, joins us to share lessons from past market downturns.

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China has touted economic re-opening as the central government's triumph over the COVID-19 virus. But though firms are back to work and factories are up and running, growth hasn't recovered. In fact, privately gathered data suggest China's economy continues to struggle. Can the government do more than reopen factories? And what will it take to get Chinese consumers shopping, travelling, and spending again? Leland Miller, CEO of China Beige Book International, joins us our podcast to explain what the official numbers don't.

For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.

Australia is flattening the curve of COVID-19 and moving to reopen its economy—slowly. Thanks to a focus on testing and tracing, authorities are gaining confidence to start easing restrictions, but not without some conditions and challenges still ahead. Su-Lin Ong joins us with the details on Australia's COVID exit strategy and economic outlook.

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Commercial rent relief programs could not come soon enough. Small businesses, including retailers, struggling to make rent during the crisis months have been handed a lifeline. But will rent relief programs be enough to bridge them through the crisis? And how are landlords weathering the storm? Rod Hunt, RBC Commercial Banking's Managing Director for Real Estate Lending, joins us with his outlook on the commercial real estate market.

For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.