Jeff Park is the Partner and Chief Investment Officer at ProCap BTC. In this conversation, we break down why bitcoin’s price has been slipping and whether the market is actually signaling the start of a bear trend. Jeff explains the key forces driving sentiment — from liquidity pressures to global macro shifts — and why a slightly negative year for bitcoin might not be as bearish as it sounds.We also dig into what it would take for bitcoin to rip back toward the $125K–$150K range, plus how geopolitical dynamics in Japan, China, and elsewhere are shaping the broader investment landscape.

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Timestamps:

• 0:00 – Intro

• 1:50 – Why is bitcoin dropping? Should investors be worried?

• 4:36 – Do technical levels like CME gaps actually matter?

• 8:13 – Harvard’s bitcoin position and how endowments invest

• 12:15 – Has optionality changed bitcoin’s market dynamics?

• 15:14 – What Jeff is watching for real signs of optimism

• 17:30 – Is the 4-year cycle officially dead?

• 23:18 – Macro risks: liquidity, global conflict, & Trump premium

• 25:56 – What would a true upside black swan look like?

• 28:05 – How do you underwrite quantum risk today?