The Breakdown

Today on the Brief:

• BBVA set to offer crypto trading and custody
• Wells Fargo discusses bitcoin in recent investor memo
• Square launches Bitcoin Clean Energy Initiative with $10 million 

Our main discussion: Michael Saylor is back at it. 

The CEO of MicroStrategy and Giga Chad himself announced MicroStrategy would be offering $400 million in convertible bonds with the intent to purchase more bitcoin. 

On this episode, NLW looks at the community’s reaction, including the comparison of MSTR stock to a BTC exchange-traded fund. He also discusses Saylor’s recent comments about censorship resistance as a reminder of the (potentially) divergent values of bitcoin retail HODLers and institutional investors.

Today on the Brief:

• COVID-19 vs. Stimulus 
• Small hedge funds outperform large brethren 
• Equities now worth 115% of global GDP 

Our main discussion: Why the newest trial of China’s central bank digital currency is its most important trial yet. 

In this episode, NLW discusses:

• The significance of the “Double 12” shopping festival 
• How the participant merchants have changed
• Comparison of the size of the lottery
• Changes in public interest
• Why it matters to the crypto industry 

On today’s Long Reads Sunday, NLW reads Niall Ferguson’s latest Op-Ed for Bloomberg: “Bitcoin Is Winning the COVID-19 Monetary Revolution”

In it, Ferguson argues that bitcoin’s sovereignty and “built-in scarcity in a virtual world characterized by boundless abundance” are driving its adoption. 

He also argues that rather than adopt a China-style central bank digital currency, incoming President Joe Biden should look to integrate bitcoin into the U.S. economic system.

On this edition of the weekly recap, NLW looks at the consolidating narrative of a bitcoin rally that is:

• Being driven by institutional investors
• Shifting the center of the industry from East Asia to North America 
• Winning converts from major research houses and institutions 
• Driving the price of bitcoin to new all-time highs

Today on the Brief:

• Payrolls report underperforms expectations
• Spotify looking for crypto director
• Lame-duck crypto legislation on the way? 

Our main discussion: Will we see a “Santa Claus rally” this year? 

This kind of rally refers to the fact that in about two-thirds of years since 1969, late December has seen a stock market rally, averaging a 1.4% gain. 

This year, vaccine optimism combined with new stimulus seems poised to once again jingle Wall Street’s bells. A piece in Bloomberg, however, provides five charts and reasons why this market rally is already overbought and overblown, so this year might be more coal than eggnog. 

On Wednesday, three U.S. congressional Democrats announced the STABLE Act, an 18-page bill that would require, among other things, stablecoin issuers to acquire banking charters, get approval from the Federal Reserve and hold FDIC insurance. 

The bill’s authors claim stablecoins represent a continuation of the shadow banking system that preys on poor communities. The crypto industry argues this overly burdensome would not only stifle innovation but ensure the only players in this new space are the deep-pocketed fintechs with the resources for compliance. 

In today’s episode, NLW argues this is more than just another bill that will go nowhere in Congress, it’s the opening salvo of a new set of arguments that will define the next face of regulatory battles for the entire crypto industry.

Josh Brown is the CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management. He is also the host of “The Halftime Report” on CNBC, author of the “Reformed Broker” blog and host of “The Compound Show” podcast. 

Most recently, he is the author of “How I Invest My Money: Finance Experts Reveal How They Save, Spend, and Invest.”

In this fun and freewheeling conversation, Josh and NLW discuss:

• Why financial advisers give a lot of advice but don’t actually share their personal strategies 
• What’s driving bitcoin’s “respectability rally” (Read more here) 
• Why we should be excited about, rather than worried for, the new generation of Robinhood traders
• Why the Dow Jones Industrial Average is going to 100,000 in our lifetime 

Find our guest online:

Twitter: @reformedbroker 

• Libra is now “Diem” 
• Christine Lagarde comes down on private stablecoins 
• Dow closes its best month in 33 years 

Yesterday, CoinDesk received access to a private client research report from AllianceBernstein, a global investment giant with more than $631 billion in assets. 

In this episode of the Breakdown, NLW reads excerpts from the memo and discusses:

• Why, in discussing supply, it conflates bitcoin and other cryptos but still finds limited supply “for all practical purposes” 
• Why prevailing macro political conditions – particularly the growth of government’s role in business and individual lives – shifted the investment firm’s calculus 
• Why its greatest long-term concern is government banning something that is actively hindering the application of monetary policy

On this historic day, NLW looks at bitcoin’s punching through its previous December 2017 all-time high. Specifically, he looks at:

• How different people benchmark the all-time high 
• What drove the latest price action, including the prospect of new investment from institutional asset management giant Guggenheim 
• Why historian Niall Ferguson is arguing bitcoin has won the COVID-19 monetary revolution 
• Why macro giants including Raoul Pal, George Gammon and Ben Hunt got into disagreements with Bitcoin Twitter about how co-opted by the state and Wall Street bitcoin is likely to become

On this edition of The Breakdown’s Long Reads Sunday, NLW reads a recent piece by Hong Fang, CEO of OKCoin. 

In it, Fang provides a set of valuation models and scenarios that plausibly lead to bitcoin achieving a significant $100,000 value over the course of 2021.