The Breakdown

The “three-body problem” is a physics issue that deals with unpredictable futures. 

In a recent essay, John Mauldin argues the economy is actually experiencing an “eight-body problem.” 

On today’s episode, NLW explores each of those dimensions shaping the challenge we face, including:

• Central bank intervention
• The destruction of the service industry
• The implosion of global trade 

In the end, he argues that in a world ruled by chaos, fighting to control the narrative might be the only rational move. 

Read Ben Hunt’s essay “The Three-Body Problem”

Today on the Brief:

• Markets react to FOMC notes
• Taiwan blocks China streaming services
• Initial jobless claims back on the rise

Our main discussion is a look at the politicians on both sides of the aisle who are pro-digital currencies and, especially, pro-bitcoin. Featuring:

• Rep. Thomas Massie
• Governor Jared Polis
• Andrew Yang
• Rep. Ted Budd
• Rep. Trey Hollingsworth
• Rep. Darren Soto
• Rep. Stacey Plaskett
• Rep. Tom Emmer

Today, NLW debuts a new format: “10 Takes in 10(ish) Minutes.” 

In this analysis, he looks at 10 takes surrounding the S&P 500’s return to positive territory on the year, including:

• Great American comeback
• Market disconnect and widening inequality 
• Don’t fight the Fed
• To the Stoolies go the spoils
• Stock splits and SPACs
• It’s Tech vs. everything else
• Cantillon insiders FTW
• A new era of global liquidity?
• You’d have done better with gold
• You’d have done a lot a lot better with bitcoin 

Today on the Brief:

• Everyone turns bullish as S&P 500 nears all-time highs
• Emerging market currencies are floundering 

Our main conversation features Race Capital’s Chris McCann.

Chris was previously the founder of Startup Digest, building it to 1 million subscriptions long before email newsletters were a thing. He spent four years building the community program at Greylock before launching his own venture firm. 

In this conversation, Chris and NLW discuss:

• The relationship between monetary policy and startup finance
• What changes in startup financing have followed COVID-19
• What the emerging fintech stack looks like, outside of crypto

Find our guest online:

Website: Race Capital 

Twitter: @mccannatron

There is perhaps nothing more important or contentious in macroeconomics right now than the question of inflation. 

On the one hand, there is a growing concern that rapidly growing money supply and increasing central bank balance sheets will inevitably lead to inflationary pressures.

On the other, critics of that point of view point to significant counterveiling forces such as the 10% unemployment rate and growing savings rate among consumers. 

So who is right?

• What are the specific narratives trying to say? 
• What is the evidence and data actually telling us? 
• And how are real people experiencing inflation today?

Earlier this week, the Winklevoss brothers introduced Barstool Sports founder Dave Portnoy to bitcoin. 

One of the notable parts of the recap video was a discussion of how Elon Musk was set to destroy the value of gold on Earth by mining gold from asteroids. 

While much meme fun was had, on this week’s Long Reads Sunday NLW has chosen a selection that looks at how fiat beat out gold and how gold beat out silver to provide some – ahem – more immediately relevant lessons on how to explain the benefits of bitcoin. 

Read:Projection and ThrownessPart III — Bitcoin’s 10x Advantage Over Gold Might Not Lie Where You Think

By David Lawant 

On this edition of The Breakdown’s Weekly Recap, NLW looks at the strange melange of realities interacting in the new emerging bull market. 

On the one hand, bitcoin has found narrative relevance and technical importance in a world of social unrest and increased state involvement in economies and citizens’ lives.

On the other, insane financial engineering experiments are seeing three-quarters of a billion dollars in value locked up within hours before a bug sees it all go away. 

In the middle, agents of chaos like new bitcoiner (and LINK-holder) Dave Portnoy. 

This is going to get weirder before it gets more normal.

Today on the Brief:

• Jobless claims down and retail sales up
• The U.S. Federal Reserve is running distributed ledger technology experiments 
• The end of an era, as BitMEX begins KYC

Our main discussion: the big battle brewing between Epic Games and Apple/Google.

NLW looks at:

• Why Fortnite got kicked off the Apple and Google app stores 
• Why Epic Games is suing in response
• Why this was all very clearly planned by Epic Games
• Why Apple and Google should be nervous about anti-trust 
• Why this is about a much bigger future than just a single game 

The Investor’s Podcast Network cofounder Preston Pysh last recorded with The Breakdown on Black Thursday in March. As NLW and Pysh discussed the potential of future currency crises, bitcoin smashed all the way below $4,000. 

In the five months since, bitcoin has risen 200%. It has attracted the devotion of leading hedge funders such as Paul Tudor Jones II and more recently has become the reserve asset of choice of at least one publicly listed company. 

In this conversation, Preston and NLW discuss:

• The significance of halving coinciding with central bank printing
• The inevitability of negative interest rates
• Why it’s the dollar, not the stock market, that is inversely correlated with the price of bitcoin
• Why Preston believes in the stock-to-flow model
• Who pays the price for inevitable currency debasement
• Why we’re dramatically underestimating the precedent set by MicroStrategy’s $250,000,000 cash-for-bitcoin reserve switch
• Why MicroStrategy will be worth 10 times what it is today a year from now 

Find out guest online:Website: theinvestorspodcast.com

Twitter: @PrestonPysh

Today on the Brief:

• WSJ study finds TikTok was tracking data in a way that broke Android rules
• The latest Core Inflation statistics 
• MicroStrategy stocks pops 10% after cash to bitcoin announcement

Our main discussion: What’s the Ethereum #SupplyGate really about

NLW breaks down:

• The historical narratives bitcoiners and ether advocates hold relative to one another
• The history of dominant narratives in crypto over the last three years
• Why the next bull market is poised for a twin narrative combining bitcoin as a hedge against fiat debasement and DeFi as a money-making sandbox 
• What happened with #SupplyGate
• Why #SupplyGate is as much about narrative competition as it is about the supply of ether