The Breakdown

The economic outlook is grim. The jobless claims keep piling up and even the most intransigent states are shutting down business. There isn’t - yet - a realistic plan - for returning to any sort of economic normalcy. 

Yet in this bleak view, there are a handful of crypto indicators that suggest for cautious optimism. In this episode, @NLW discusses:

• The crypto community’s volatility resilience 
• A significant uptick in Stablecoin issuance 
• Proof that bitcoiners have been buying the dip 
• Evidence that new audiences are finding their way to bitcoin (and perhaps with a sound money narrative in mind) 
• Binance’s acquisition of CMC and the power of M&A signals

“Some countries just aren’t going to emerge from the Coronavirus.”

Peter Zeihan is one of the world’s foremost geopolitical experts. In his new book “Disunited Nations: The Scramble for Power in an Ungoverned World,” Zeihan argues that we’re at the end of the largest expansionary period in human history. As America withdraws from global leadership, a totally new (and for most parts of the world, more painful) ‘normal’ will emerge. 

On this episode of The Breakdown, Zeihan joins @NLW to discuss why the Coronavirus crisis is rapidly accelerating the end of the era of globalization. 

• How the American-led global order used the dollar as the tool to keep the world together 
• Why geopolitics and demography are coinciding to end the era of globalization 
• Why Covid-19 will spark a massive return of American manufacturing 
• Why, when it comes to the dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency “Never before has the “exorbitant privilege” of being the world’s reserve currency felt more exorbitant or more like a privilege. 
• Why the crisis could spell the end for the Euro 
• Why China isn’t nearly as well positioned in the post globalization era as many assume 
• Why the best positioned countries in the coming era are the US, Japan, Argentina, France and Turkey

In this wide-ranging discussion, Castle Island Ventures founding partner and Coin Metrics co-founder Nic Carter joins @NLW to discuss:

• Why corporations weren’t adequately prepared for any serious economic trouble, much less a global pandemic 
• Why government backstopping the corporations leads to inappropriate risk-taking 
• How stock buybacks became a boogeyman of the current crisis 
• Why the crisis is actually four crises in one: health, economic, financial, and geopolitical
• How Covid-19 could accelerate the US’ withdrawal from the world and China stepping into the void 
• Why the response to the handling of Covid-19 could lead some to authoritarianism 
• How stablecoins are allowing global market exposure to the world’s most in-demand currency: the USD 
• Why stablecoins and central bank digital currencies look the same but are functionally opposite 
• Why a ‘naive safe haven’ narrative was never correct for bitcoin
• Why bitcoin was designed for exactly this type of moment.

On January 28th, Bloomberg’s Joe Weisenthal tweeted “Notable overlap on here between the most alarmist people tweeting about the virus and those who are obsessed with the size of the Fed balance sheet.” 

There is no doubt that the bitcoin and crypto community broadly were far earlier in recognizing the potential significance of the Covid-19 crisis than most professional communities. Today, America preps for at least another month of lockdown and social distancing. The markets continue their chaotic swing as investors are simply unable to price in such a once in a lifetime event. 

A question for the crypto community becomes: how is this impacting narratives about our own industry? 

In this episode, @NLW looks at the impact of the Covid-19 crisis on narratives around:

• Bitcoin
• Stablecoins
• Digital Dollars and Central Bank Digital Currencies
• DeFi 
• Privacy

The full week's episode, in one convenient file. 

• Monday | Unlimited QE and Why Markets Can’t Price In COVID19

• Tuesday | Cronyism, Zombie Companies and the True Cost of the Corona Crisis, Feat. Morgan Creek's Mark Yusko

• Wednesday | How the U.S.' $2 Trillion Stimulus Will Expose the Monetary System’s Flaws

• Thursday | How BlackRock Ended Up on Both Sides of the Bailout, Feat. Meltem Demirors

• Friday | From Corporate Socialism to Dying for the Dow: 7 Themes That Defined the Week