What began as violent protests calling for the release of former president Jacob Zuma from prison in several parts of KwaZulu-Natal province on 9 July has spiraled into significant destruction and unrest across South Africa. Join our South Africa research team as they assess how the damage to infrastructure and the consequent supply chain disruptions have altered growth prospects for the South African economy for 2021 and 2022. They will cover economic growth, options to effectively address the challenging electricity situation, and the likelihood, triggers, and key risks for continued political instability Anton Casteleijn, Senior Economist, Sub-Saharan Africa, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/casteleijn-anton Thea Fourie, Associate Director of the Sub-Saharan Africa https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/fourie-thea Silvia Macri, Principal Research Manager, Africa and Middle East Power & Renewables - Climate and Sustainability, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/macri-silvia Nezo Sobekwa, Country Risk Research Analyst, IHS Markit

The US recently announced a long-awaited withdrawal despite the fact that the Taliban is making advancements in the country. Progress in many fronts seem illusive. John Raines and Asad Ali from our county risk team discuss the rise of Taliban activity in the region, why the US is going ahead with withdrawal, and what a post-civil war government could look like in the wake of fighting, discussions and negotiations. John Raines, Principal Global Risks Adviser and Head of North America, Economics & Country Risk, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/ experts/raines-john Asad Ali, Head of Asia Pacific Country Risk, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/ali-asad

The Prosperity Party of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed won 410 out of 436 seats in the Federal Parliament in an electoral process that excluded one-fifth of the country due to logistical issues, insecurity or conflict, and was boycotted by the Oromo Federalist Congress and Oromo Liberation Front. Experts from our economics and county risk teams sit down together to discuss what this means for government stability, financial opportunities, ongoing conflict, and economic growth. Langelihle Malimela, Senior Africa Country Risk Analyst, Economics & Country Risk, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/malimela-langelihle Eva Renon, Senior Africa Country Risk Analyst, Economics & Country Risk, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/renon-eva.html Jordan Anderson, Country Risk Senior Analyst, Economics & Country Risk, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/anderson-jordan Alisa Strobel, Senior Economist, Economics & Country Risk, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/strobel-alisa.html

The third wave of COVID-19 is heavily impacting Southern Africa. Infection rates have risen over 20% and deaths rose 15% in recent weeks. Our Economic and County Risk experts sit down to talk through the disease progression and the lessons learned by governments regarding lockdowns, vaccine rollout, and containment issues in countries with fragile healthcare systems. Will local responses trigger political unrest and protest? Join us to learn more. Thea Fourie, Associate Director, Sub-Saharan Africa Economics, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/fourie-thea Deepa Kumar, Deputy Head of Asia-Pacific Country Risk Team – Asia-Pacific Country Risk, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/kumar-deepa Langelihle Malimela, Senior Analyst, Country Risk – Africa, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/malimela-langelihle Nezo Sobekwa­­­, Country Risk Analyst, Africa, IHS Markit

In today’s episode, we are once again talking about an incident that is highly unlikely to happen – it’s called a Realistic Disaster Scenarios (RDS). Insurance companies rely on RDS to evaluate their books of business against unlikely, but highly impactful events. Our risk experts, Carlos Caicedo and Alexia Ash share highlights from our Latin America SRCC (strikes, riots, and civil commotion) scenario. We consider three main issues in our worst-case scenario: · Prolonged economic recession · Additional waves of Covid-19 · Coordinated insurrections Listen to today’s episode to hear our thoughts on what this could mean for the region, which countries will fare best, and what indicators we are watching closely to assess the likelihood of the scenario unfolding. Read more about our RDS: https://ihsmarkit.com/products/stress-test-insurance-portfolios-realistic-disaster-scenarios.html Alexia Ash, Associate Director, Country Risk Consulting, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/ash-alexia.html Carlos Caicedo, Senior Principal Analyst, Latin America Country Risk, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/preview/caicedo-carlos

The news, and our podcasts, have been filled with stories about the dramatic rise in lumber prices – until 2 weeks ago when prices fell. Join our Pricing and Purchasing and construction industry experts as they discuss what precipitated the price drop and whether prices will soon drop to pre-pandemic levels. They also turn their attention to the housing market where materials prices, inclusive of lumber, are up 9% but the cost of a new house is up 20%. They unpack what is driving up costs and how the construction market is doing around the globe. It’s a true tale of supply and demand. Deni Koenhemsi, Principal Economist, Pricing and Purchasing, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/koenhemsi-deni John Anton. Director, Pricing and Purchasing, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/anton-john Scott Hazelton, Director, Construction, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/hazelton-scott

Sub-Saharan Africa suffered a sharp economic contraction over the last year. Pandemic lockdowns, trade and supply Chain disruptions, and employment disruptions had a marked impact on household and business wallets. In today’s episode, our SSA and PMI teams discuss the speed and magnitude of recovery across the region as countries begin to reopen despite the pandemic and slow vaccine rollouts. They will focus in our PMI data as they look at employment condition, recovery efforts, and what this ultimately means for the consumer. Thea Fourie, Associate Director, Sub-Saharan Africa Economics, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/fourie-thea Andrew Harker, Associate Director, Economic Indices, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/harker-andrew.html Alisa Strobel, Senior Economist, Sub-Saharan Africa, IHS Markit. https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/strobel-alisa.html

In today’s episode, we are doing something a little different- we are talking about an incident that is highly unlikely to happen – it’s called a Realistic Disaster Scenarios (RDS). Insurance companies rely on RDS to evaluate their books of business against unlikely, but impactful events. Our risk experts, Kevjn Lim and Alexia Ash, share a little bit of their analysis from our RDS on Iran regional war risks including our baseline forecast for the region, a description of the scenario, and the indicators to watch. Alexia Ash, Associate Director, Country Risk Consulting https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/ash-alexia Kevjn Lim, Senior Risk Advisor, Middle East and North Africa, Country Risk, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/lim-kevjn.html

Commodity prices have experienced a spectacular rally since March of 2020. Are we finally seeing some weak signals that prices may be stabilizing? John Anton and John Mothersole join us again this month to talk about what they are seeing in commodity markets, the pressures on supply chains as they follow prices through the supply chain from raw materials to delivered goods, and what the price shifts look like by region and commodity. John Anton, Director, Pricing and Purchasing, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/anton-john John Mothersole, Director - Research, Pricing and Purchasing, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/mothersole-john

In today’s episode, our Sub-Saharan team discusses the insurgency in the Cabo Delgado province (something we have been watching this year https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/terrorism-mozambiques-cabo-delgado-data.html) and the longer term implications of the ‘force majeure’ Total declared when it cancelled its contracts with local subcontractors, withdrew all its staff, and announced at least a year of delay to the key Afungi LNG project. Our analysts provide the background of the insurgency, the response from the energy industry, and the implication for economic recovery and debt sustainability going forward. Thea Fourie, Associate Director, Sub-Saharan Africa Economics, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/fourie-thea Eva Renon, Senior Country Risk Analyst, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/renon-eva.html Langelihle Malimela, Senior country Risk Analyst, Country Risk – Africa, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/malimela-langelihle Roderick Bruce, Research and Analysis Associate Director, E&P Terms and Above-Ground Risk, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/bruce-roderick