Hakainde Hichilema, the leader of the United Party for National Development, won the 12 August Zambian presidential election. In today's episode, our Sub-Saharan team discusses the important policy interventions we can expect from the new government and what this will mean for economic recovery and debt sustainability going forward. Langelihle Malimela, Senior analyst, Country Risk – Africa, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/malimela-langelihle Thea Fourie, Associate Director, Sub-Saharan Africa Economics, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/fourie-theaTheo Theo Acheampong, Senior Analyst Country Risk – Sub-Saharan Africa, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/acheampong-theo

In this episode, our Pricing and Purchasing experts looking at the next level downstream at how the changes in commodity prices and shortages are impacting the cost and availability of machinery the machinery and equipment businesses need to operate. With record escalations in almost all commodities, we are just now seeing an explosion in prices in items these inputs feed. It's becoming increasingly difficult for businesses to maintain prices as they once were – what can the market withstand and for how long? Our experts provide some answers. Maxwell Clarke Senior Economist, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/clarke-maxwell John Anton Director, Pricing and Purchasing, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/anton-john #commodities #supplychain

Often held up as the only democratic success story to come out of the Arab Spring, Tunisia has struggled through a decade of consistent unrest and poor economic growth. This all came to a head on 25 July when president, Kais Saied, activated article 80 of the Constitution thus suspending the activities of parliament and parliamentary immunity, and dismissing Prime Minister Hichem Mechichi. Our middle East and North Africa experts sit down to talk about the incidents that led to this soft coup, what we believe is next to come, and how this is going to further influence the economic trajectory of the county. Jack Kennedy, Senior Analyst, Country Risk – Middle East and North Africa, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/kennedy-jack-a Yasmin Ghozzi, North Africa Senior Economist, Economics & Country Risk, IHS Markit Ludovico Carlino, Principal Analyst, Country Risk – Middle East and North Africa, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/carlino-ludovico

What's driving growth in manufacturing production around the globe? Our PMI economists join us to discuss what our PMI surveys are telling us in real-time about confidence, output, and supply disruption. Using the Czech Republic as a starting point, they discuss trends, delivery times, the spread of the Delta Variant, and our expectations for inflation. Paul Smith, Director, Economic Indices, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/smith-paul.html Andrew Harker, Senior Economics, Economic Indices, IHS Markit, https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/harker-andrew.html Sian Jones, Senior Economist, Economic Indices, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/jones-sian.html

After many choppy weeks for commodity markets, the transition in pricing is finally beginning. However, the same cannot be said for the semiconductor industry. Continued tightness in supply, as well as increases in input costs, has created serious issues along the supply chain and across multiple industries. Our experts provide their thoughts on the current state of affairs, the short-term bumps, and the long-term structural factors that are going to be driving the market for the foreseeable future. John Mothersole, Director of Research, Pricing and Purchasing, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/mothersole-john John Bauman, Economics Associate Director, Pricing and Purchasing, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/bauman-john

What began as violent protests calling for the release of former president Jacob Zuma from prison in several parts of KwaZulu-Natal province on 9 July has spiraled into significant destruction and unrest across South Africa. Join our South Africa research team as they assess how the damage to infrastructure and the consequent supply chain disruptions have altered growth prospects for the South African economy for 2021 and 2022. They will cover economic growth, options to effectively address the challenging electricity situation, and the likelihood, triggers, and key risks for continued political instability Anton Casteleijn, Senior Economist, Sub-Saharan Africa, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/casteleijn-anton Thea Fourie, Associate Director of the Sub-Saharan Africa https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/fourie-thea Silvia Macri, Principal Research Manager, Africa and Middle East Power & Renewables - Climate and Sustainability, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/macri-silvia Nezo Sobekwa, Country Risk Research Analyst, IHS Markit

The US recently announced a long-awaited withdrawal despite the fact that the Taliban is making advancements in the country. Progress in many fronts seem illusive. John Raines and Asad Ali from our county risk team discuss the rise of Taliban activity in the region, why the US is going ahead with withdrawal, and what a post-civil war government could look like in the wake of fighting, discussions and negotiations. John Raines, Principal Global Risks Adviser and Head of North America, Economics & Country Risk, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/ experts/raines-john Asad Ali, Head of Asia Pacific Country Risk, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/ali-asad

The Prosperity Party of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed won 410 out of 436 seats in the Federal Parliament in an electoral process that excluded one-fifth of the country due to logistical issues, insecurity or conflict, and was boycotted by the Oromo Federalist Congress and Oromo Liberation Front. Experts from our economics and county risk teams sit down together to discuss what this means for government stability, financial opportunities, ongoing conflict, and economic growth. Langelihle Malimela, Senior Africa Country Risk Analyst, Economics & Country Risk, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/malimela-langelihle Eva Renon, Senior Africa Country Risk Analyst, Economics & Country Risk, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/renon-eva.html Jordan Anderson, Country Risk Senior Analyst, Economics & Country Risk, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/anderson-jordan Alisa Strobel, Senior Economist, Economics & Country Risk, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/strobel-alisa.html

The third wave of COVID-19 is heavily impacting Southern Africa. Infection rates have risen over 20% and deaths rose 15% in recent weeks. Our Economic and County Risk experts sit down to talk through the disease progression and the lessons learned by governments regarding lockdowns, vaccine rollout, and containment issues in countries with fragile healthcare systems. Will local responses trigger political unrest and protest? Join us to learn more. Thea Fourie, Associate Director, Sub-Saharan Africa Economics, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/fourie-thea Deepa Kumar, Deputy Head of Asia-Pacific Country Risk Team – Asia-Pacific Country Risk, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/kumar-deepa Langelihle Malimela, Senior Analyst, Country Risk – Africa, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/malimela-langelihle Nezo Sobekwa­­­, Country Risk Analyst, Africa, IHS Markit

In today's episode, we are once again talking about an incident that is highly unlikely to happen – it's called a Realistic Disaster Scenarios (RDS). Insurance companies rely on RDS to evaluate their books of business against unlikely, but highly impactful events. Our risk experts, Carlos Caicedo and Alexia Ash share highlights from our Latin America SRCC (strikes, riots, and civil commotion) scenario. We consider three main issues in our worst-case scenario: · Prolonged economic recession · Additional waves of Covid-19 · Coordinated insurrections Listen to today's episode to hear our thoughts on what this could mean for the region, which countries will fare best, and what indicators we are watching closely to assess the likelihood of the scenario unfolding. Read more about our RDS: https://ihsmarkit.com/products/stress-test-insurance-portfolios-realistic-disaster-scenarios.html Alexia Ash, Associate Director, Country Risk Consulting, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/ash-alexia.html Carlos Caicedo, Senior Principal Analyst, Latin America Country Risk, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/preview/caicedo-carlos