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Selected Links and people mentioned from this episode::
Saretsky Report
The Pig & The Python by David Cork
Ray Dalio
Rich Dad, Poor Dad by Robert Kiyosaki
Gary Vaynerchuk
Peloton
MACROVoices podcast
David Rosenberg
Real Vision
George Gammon
Ken Rogoff
Central Bank
The Wealthy Barber by David Chilton
Purple Cow and more by Seth Godin
Connect with REIN Canada
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SHOW NOTES
[02:08] Patrick introduces his next TEDM guest: Steve Saretsky.
[03:12] Steve and Patrick get rolling on their conversation, with a quick look at what Steve does, the extra mile he goes, and the data driven approach he takes to support his clients. His weekly presence, both in video and newsletter format, serves as an update for what he’s keeping his eye on, the macro-economic landscape of Canada, what policymakers are up to, and how these may affect the real estate market.
[07:23] Although an unlikely economic analyst, as a self-professed autodidact Steve needed to better understand the root cause of the market surge of 2015-16 and quickly became absorbed in the study and understanding of how the fundamentals of economics affect the real estate market.
[09:49] Steve narrows in on the Vancouver market to describe what the environment looked like and how and why it changed from 2017-2020. In spring of 2020 most people including CMHC anticipated a significant decline which has yet to materialize.
[13:39] The natural ebbs and flows of the real estate market is evident in Vancouver where the investor market has not come back and likely will have a bit more downward pressure on the condo market, while the rest of the market continues to grow with the appeal of more space as more people work from home.
[17:51] When you look at small & medium business enterprise, which account for half of the employers in Canada, and a province like Alberta as an example where challenges were already undermining the economy, the unemployment stats being reported are simply not consistent with reality and perhaps being understated by design.
[20:22] Steve talks about his concern for the financial landscape with mortgage deferrals, foreclosures and the government’s affinity for money-printing = it’s difficult to know which way it will all fall out.
[22:10] With such a different picture in places like Ottawa and Victoria where government jobs and IT have not only not been affected, but indeed may have grown, while conversely you have a province like Alberta with such large negative economic impacts, it is not a fair representation to present economic data on a national basis. Markets, particularly real estate, are truly regional.
[27:58] Steve talks about where he is doing business in Vancouver, what’s hot in the market, and what is really not (but may provide opportunity long-term). He also touches on the type of home buyer he is working with, and the inventory available.
[31:51] What is Steve’s perspective on the future of immigration?
[34:42] Steve and Patrick discuss the significance of critical thinking and historical data. There are patterns, events, and points of reference that give us an idea of how things may play out and at the same time this current global situation and the response, is unlike any other in recent history so it’s difficult to determine where we’ll sit economically when the music stops.
[38:41] The frustration of this situation for many people not only lives in the contrarian governmental standpoint of what gets shut down and what doesn’t, but also the support for big box business when our own local sm...