Ian Shepherdson, founder and chief U.S. economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, believes that home prices may fall another 15% in 2023, citing the large disparity between property costs and buyer incomes. He predicted the eventual housing crash of 2008 in 2005 and recently suggested that the price-income gap, coupled with increased house supply and high mortgage rates, may precipitate a period of continued deceleration of the housing market rather than a significant rebound this year.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this prediction, and attempt to determine just how likely it could be based on current data.

They discuss comments from Zillow senior economist Jeff Tucker, who says that, in 2022, homeownership was further out of reach than it has been in modern recorded history. While home prices and mortgage rates may be falling, making the market at least a little more accessible, they’re doing so from historic highs.

Chris and Saied look at an interview with Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, who said that explosive jobs growth is evidence that the central bank has more work to do when it comes to taming inflation, including more hikes to interest rates.

They also offer some thoughts on the differences between the affordability crisis this time around, and the last recession.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

• The difference between being data-driven and data-based.
• Why Bob Iger is right-sizing the company to weather the storm and to be more efficient, returning more profits to the shareholders.
• Why Zoom has laid off 15% of its workforce.
• What would happen if the Fed started lowering rates again and the effect it would have on inflation?
• And so much more...

Resources:

"Economist Who Predicted the 2008 Housing Crash Says Home Prices Will Drop 15% in 2023" (article from Yahoo! Finance)

"Home prices are falling, but that doesn’t mean they’re affordable" (article from Grid)

"Bob Iger Outlines New Disney Org Structure, With 7,000 Job Cuts Planned" (article from The Hollywood Reporter)

"Fed’s Neel Kashkari says central bank has not made enough progress, keeping his rate outlook" (article from CNBC)

"Zoom to lay off 1,300 employees, or about 15% of its workforce" (article from CNBC)

"Yahoo to lay off more than 20% of staff" (article from Yahoo! Finance)