The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

While everyone has been worried about U.S. elections, Japan held elections too – with a result that has upended everything we’ve known about Japanese politics since 2009. To understand what has changed and what is at stake, Jacob is joined by Japan expert Tobias Harris – they chat about changes in Japan and why underestimating Japan is a bad idea. They also discuss Tobias’s recent biography on former Japanese PM Shinzo Abe and his legacy.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(02:33) - Japan 101

(08:07) – Japanese disaffection

(16:26) – Japanese paralysis

(19:17) – Zoom out

(23:31) – China

(31:00) – ROK/Japan

(36:45) – Shinzo Abe

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Referenced in the Show:

Link to Tobias’s book: https://www.amazon.com/Iconoclast-Shinzo-Abe-New-Japan/dp/1787383105

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

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While everyone has been worried about U.S. elections, Japan held elections too – with a result that has upended everything we’ve known about Japanese politics since 2009. To understand what has changed and what is at stake, Jacob is joined by Japan expert Tobias Harris – they chat about changes in Japan and why underestimating Japan is a bad idea. They also discuss Tobias’s recent biography on former Japanese PM Shinzo Abe and his legacy.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) – Intro

(02:38) - Japan 101

(08:00) – Japanese disaffection

(16:36) – Japanes paralysis

(19:15) – Zoom out

(23:22) – China

(30:36) – ROK/Japan

(36:32) – Shinzo Abe

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Link to Tobias’s book: https://www.amazon.com/Iconoclast-Shinzo-Abe-New-Japan/dp/1787383105

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

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Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

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Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob and Rob dive into Donald Trump's surprising victory and its potential impact on various sectors, including the economy and the markets. They discuss the prevailing mood in both the US and Europe, highlighting a sense of resignation to Trump's return among many citizens. They explore the market reactions following the election results, noting the volatility in risk assets and the contrasting performance of renewable energy stocks and traditional industries like steel. The conversation also touches on the evolving political landscape in Germany, where the government is facing significant challenges, potentially reshaping Europe's response to US policy under Trump. Throughout the discussion, there is a critical examination of the term "vibes" and its influence on public sentiment and market behavior, raising questions about how perceptions can drive decisions in uncertain times.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:16) – Rob reaction

(07:45) – Market reaction

(30:20) – U.S./China

(54:00) – Bitcoin

(56:15) – Germany and Europe

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

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Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob and Marko tackle the results of the 2024 election as only they can – in a 2 hr+ episode, they discuss what happened in the election, what Trump’s agenda will mean for the economy and markets, how to understand the geopolitical impact…and what his victory might mean for the future of the United States.

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Timestamps:

• 00:00 - Intro
• 01:17– Realignment or flash in the pan?
• 15:25 – Domestic agenda
• 40:40 – US-China Relations
• 1:03:40 – Mexico
• 1:13:20 – Ukraine/EU
• 1:27:51 – MENA/Iran
• 1:40:25 – Future of the USA

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Description (replace me)

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Timestamps:

• 00:01 - Intro
• 01:14 - Understanding Crime in Latin America
• 08:30 - Case Study: Guatemala and Its Challenges
• 19:48 - Emerging Trends in Drug Trafficking
• 22:54 - The Narco State Concept Explained
• 31:24 - The Situation in Mexico: Democracy at Risk
• 44:02 - El Salvador's Authoritarian Shift
• 45:52 - Peru's Political Instability and Future Outlook
• 56:03 - Conclusion and Final Thoughts

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Referenced in the Show:

https://muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/article/937740/pdf

https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/online-exclusive/can-mexicos-next-president-control-the-military/

https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/perus-anti-law-enforcement-turn-is-a-threat-to-regional-stability/

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

The U.S. election next week. Even those of us that hate following this have no choice but to bite the bullet – so this week, Rob and Jacob make predictions, offer scenarios, and most importantly, try to impart some advice about how to think about what is going to happen in the next 4 years no matter who resides in the White House.

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Timestamps:

• 00:00 - Introduction
• 02:46 - Election Scenarios and Market Implications
• 04:43 - Economic Indicators and Predictions
• 10:06 - Cultural and Political Dynamics
• 15:40 - Market Reactions and Future Projections
• 26:52 - Market Reactions to Potential Trump Victory
• 28:56 - Impact of Fiscal Spending and Inflation
• 30:39 - Equity vs. Bond Markets
• 33:42 - Gold, Bitcoin, and Commodities
• 36:03 - Illegal Gold Mining in Latin America
• 37:31 - Potential Harris Victory and Economic Policies
• 41:55 - Historical Perspectives on Economic Policies
• 46:06 - Investment Strategies Amidst Volatility
• 50:44 - Long-term U.S. Economic Outlook
• 56:56 - Concluding Thoughts and Future Outlook

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Referenced in the Show:

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob welcomes Adam Mastroianni onto the show to discuss his 2023 article in Nature about how it is human nature to assume that the world is always getting worse. This is that rare bit of content that is entirely optimistic – it invites you to consider that our perception of the world is grounded not in what is actually happening in the world but in how we are programmed to think about it.

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Timestamps:

• 00:01 - Introduction to Adam Mastriani
• 00:15 - The Illusion of Moral Decline
• 00:31 - Human Psychology and Moral Perception
• 04:38 - Survey Findings on Morality
• 02:03 - Understanding Cooperation and Negativity Bias
• 14:03 - Exploring Political Polarization
• 11:28 - The Role of Social Media in Perception
• 42:26 - Conclusion: Optimism in a Complex World

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Referenced in the Show:

Link to article: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06137-x

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

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Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

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Jacob and Rob take a break from geopolitics and markets to talk about changes at Team CI – why they are moving their asset management activities to The Bespoke Group, how Cognitive Investments is changing… and how you can be a part of it... They unveil the launch of Club CI, a new community designed for like-minded individuals seeking to deepen their understanding of geopolitics, technology, and personal growth. This episode dives into the structural changes within Cognitive Investments, highlighting Jacob's new role as head of geopolitical research at the Bespoke Group and Rob's position as CIO. They discuss the importance of creating a supportive environment for sharing knowledge and fostering creativity among members, emphasizing the dual tiers of membership that cater to both established professionals and emerging talents. The conversation also touches on the integration of productivity tools and methods from experts like Nareth Carlisle, aimed at enhancing personal effectiveness and well-being. As they explore the vision behind Club CI, Jacob and Rob invite listeners to consider how they can engage with this evolving community.

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Timestamps:

• 00:00 - Intro
• 00:56 - What is Club CI?
• 03:54 - Transitioning to Bespoke Group
• 09:14 - Building the CI Community
• 10:12 - Understanding Human Capital Trends
• 21:37 - The Vision for Club CI
• 22:09 - The Structure of Club CI
• 29:01 - Member vs. Fellow Tiers Explained
• 55:22 - Closing Thoughts and How to Join

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Referenced in the Show:

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob and Rob consider how the world has changed (or hasn’t) since the Hamas attack on Israel on Oct 7, 2023. From there, they offer thoughts on innovation in seemingly random countries like Iraq and Chile, before turning to more traditional topics like the U.S. economy. They close with a few bright spots…and a dumpster fire in Pakistan.

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Timestamps:

• 00:01 - Intro
• 00:55 - Reflections on October 7, 2023
• 03:49 - The Impact of Global Events on Trade
• 09:00 - The Situation in Iraq and Food Self-Sufficiency
• 29:28 - Economic Growth and Innovation in Developing Countries
• 29:38 - Concerns about Ireland's Economic Future
• 51:30 - Analyzing Pakistan's Economic Challenges
• 01:00:35 - Conclusion and Final Thoughts

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Rob and Jacob take a step back from a crazy week to talk about some of the other stories that have been outshone by the explodey events of the week: port strikes in the U.S., the pitfalls of protectionism, Brazilian success, insurance markets, and more. The podcast delves into the significant labor unrest currently affecting ports on the Gulf and East Coast of the United States, marking the first major strike since 1977. Jacob Shapiro and Rob Larity explore the implications of this strike, particularly its potential impact on the supply chain during the crucial holiday shipping season and the broader economic consequences, including inflationary pressures. They draw parallels to past labor movements and discuss the evolving dynamics of labor and production in the U.S., highlighting the challenges posed by automation and protectionist policies. The conversation also touches on the geopolitical context, emphasizing how current events in the Middle East and elsewhere are intertwined with domestic labor issues. Furthermore, they reflect on the inadequacies of insurance coverage in light of recent flooding in North Carolina, illustrating the hidden vulnerabilities within both personal and corporate risk management.

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Timestamps:

• 00:01 - Intro
• 00:47 - Port Strikes in the US and Historical Context
• 09:50 - Impact of Port Strikes on Supply Chains
• 39:57 - Insurance and Risk Management Insights
• 53:25 - Brazil's Economic Situation and Credit Ratings
• 54:55 - Conclusion and Final Thoughts

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor