The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

Jacob and Rob talk about the expanding monkeypox global health emergency. From there they turn to artificial intelligence to talk about whether comparisons to previous bubbles in rail and telecoms are good models for thinking about it going forward.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:39) – Nordstream sabotage

(04:16) – Monkeypox

(11:00) – Government responses

(20:20) – Investment implications

(26:43) – Artificial Intelligence

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Referenced in the Show:

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

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Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

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Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Matthew Pines rejoins the podcast to talk about the virtue of Bitcoin as a part of U.S. national security policy. Come for the philosophical discussion on Bitcoin and the role of the U.S. dollar – stay for Matt’s updates on aliens at the end.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(03:00) - Bitcoin

(12:55) – Philosophical considerations

(27:05) – Rails / assets

(40:37) – China’s ability to exploit vulnerabilities

(50:30) – Aliens

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Referenced in the Show:

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Rob dissects the market volatility of the week with characteristic apolmb. From there, Rob and Jacob tackle the overthrow of Bangladesh’s government and a discovery in Japan that may change the way the semiconductor industry works. Also, Rob’s take on the Olympics.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(00:41) - Market Madness: A Week of Financial Turbulence

(02:46) - Understanding Market Volatility

(08:37) - Investment Strategies in Volatile Markets

(19:18) - Bangladesh Political Crisis

(28:26) - Bangladesh's Garment Industry Resilience

(29:15) - Global Apparel Export Dynamics

(30:48) - Challenges in Textile-Dependent Economies

(33:52) - Bangladesh's Economic and Political Landscape

(36:05) - Innovations in Semiconductor Manufacturing

(37:53) - Investment Implications in Technology

(42:21) - The Future of Semiconductor Giants

(47:37) - Intel's Struggles and Market Sentiment

(50:16) - Paris Olympics Highlights

(54:22) - Conclusion and Disclaimers

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Referenced in the Show:

--

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob and Rob talk briefly about emerging markets and a return to orthodox economic policies in places like Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Egypt. After a brief digression into the Bank of Japan’s decision to raise interest rates, they spend the rest of the podcast discussing a study that looked at the impact of direct cash transfers on labor supply and quality – and what it means that the key takeaway was that people want to have fun.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:47) - CI Club Concept

(05:45) - Global Geopolitical Updates

(07:38) - Focus on Nigeria and Ethiopia

(13:51) - Economic Strategies and Challenges

(17:49) - Japan's Economic Policies

(20:50) - Unconditional Cash Transfers Study

(29:05) - Challenges in U.S. Immigration and Workforce

(29:34) - Anecdotes on Job Market Shifts

(31:23) - Decline in Male Labor Force Participation

(34:57) - Universal Basic Income Study Findings

(40:34) - Philosophical Implications of Leisure

(44:29) - Automation and Future of Work

(46:47) - Starbucks Earnings and Service Quality

(48:06) - Historical Context and Policy Reflections

(55:59) - Concluding Thoughts and Reflections

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob welcomes Elohim Monard back to the podcast for an emergency conversation about the deteriorating situation in Venezuela. While they both bring idealism to the conversation, it is hard to conclude that the current situation will lead to change – and that instead it will empower rogue elements, criminal enterprises, and authoritarian regimes around the world.

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Timestamps:

Coming Soon (Jacob the Producer is sick rn)

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Referenced in the Show:

--

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Rob and Jacob spend a few minutes discussing Kamala Harris before moving on to all the things happening in the world you’re missing because Trump and Harris are sucking up the headlines. They discuss Mexico trade relations, signals of change in Cuba and Venezuela, and major developments in Egypt and Vietnam, before closing with some bullishness on Japan.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:50) - Kamala

(05:55) – Mexico/Brazil/China

(17:15) – Cuba and Venezuela

(33:00) – Egypt

(43:51) – Vietnam

(47:50) – Japan

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Referenced in the Show:

--

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob and Rob discuss the attempted assassination on former U.S. President Donald Trump. They explore scenarios related to tariffs and currency devaluation if Trump wins, as appears increasingly likely. They close with thoughts about CHina and why they are optimistic about the future.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(00:50) – Assassination in U.S. history

(19:00) – Tariffs

(34:00) – Devaluing the dollar

(50:50) – China

(59:05) – Optimism, scenarios, and why the Fourth Turning is bullshit

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Matt rejoins the podcast to talk about a first step toward estate planning: trusts. That may sound wonky or boring, but stay with us – not only do we make it geopolitical, we make it philosophical, interesting, and relevant. Come for the intersection of politics and planning, but stay for the important points about privacy at the end as well.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(00:28) - Overview of Trusts and Geopolitical Context

(02:59) - Historical Origins of Trusts

(10:09) - Modern Trust Structures and Legal Nuances

(15:33) - Revocable vs. Irrevocable Trusts

(19:08) - Categories and Types of Trusts

(29:12) - Understanding Revocable Trusts

(29:34) - The Role of Trustees and Asset Protection

(29:53) - Privatizing Decision Making with Trusts

(30:41) - Irrevocable Trusts and Third-Party Trustees

(32:31) - Who Needs a Revocable Living Trust?

(33:38) - The Probate Process and Intestate Succession

(35:32) - The Importance of Structured Estate Planning

(38:16) - Advanced Estate Planning Strategies

(41:13) - Demographics and Estate Planning

(52:00) - The Impact of the Corporate Transparency Act

(54:38) - The Importance of Privacy in Estate Planning

(59:10) - Concluding Thoughts and Final Advice

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Referenced in the Show:

--

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob and Rob reconvene to talk about the latest CPI print, inflation expectations, and the U.S. elections. They also get philosophical about populism and apply their insights to different countries: the U.S., France, the UK, Argentina, and Germany.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) -Intro

(00:39) - Weekly Chat with Rob: Catching Up

(01:17) - Inflation Discussion: Latest CPI Print

(03:36) - US Economic Slowdown: Service Sector and Manufacturing

(06:22) - Anecdotal Evidence: Tree Trimming and Airline Demand

(14:02) - Misallocation of Resources and Policy Volatility

(16:27) - US Election Impact on Economic Policies

(23:12) - Trade Tensions Under Biden vs. Trump

(24:08) - Populism and Global Political Trends

(25:44) - The Revolt of the Masses: Historical Context

(26:48) - Authority Structures and Information Democratization

(27:51) - French Elections: A Case Study

(29:58) - The Importance of Reading Books

(31:49) - Populism and Its Manifestations

(33:59) - Country-Specific Political Dynamics

(39:32) - Investment Strategies in Uncertain Times

(42:47) - Final Thoughts and Recommendations

(47:06) - Disclaimer and Legal Information

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CI Site: cognitive.investments

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Shane McLorrain rejoins the podcast to take a victory lap on his predictions from a few weeks ago. He and Jacob talk about the election results, discuss what is next for France and Europe, and close with some spicy thoughts on lap swimming etiquette in ville lumière.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction and Welcome

(00:59) - French Elections Recap

(02:10) - Election Results Analysis

(03:46) - The Republican Wall and Far-Right Dynamics

(09:08) - Future of French Politics

(15:56) - Macron's Presidency and Reforms

(23:34) - European Parliament and Far-Right Alliances

(28:12) - Rassemblement Nationale Under Investigation

(29:07) - European Far-Right Movements

(29:55) - Contrarian View on Democracy

(31:29) - Maloney's Unique Position

(32:27) - French Enthusiasm Against Fascism

(38:03)  France's Relationship with the EU

(46:28) - Irish Politics and Public Sentiment

(49:40) - Swimming Culture in France

(51:07) - Conclusion and Disclaimers

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CI Site: cognitive.investments

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor