The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

If you want to donate to Sanaa’s GoFundMe, here is the link: https://www.gofundme.com/f/help-the-kamal-family-escape-gaza

Jacob welcomes Sanaa Kamal, a Gaza-based Palestinian journalist who is currently in Egypt, onto the podcast. Jacob asks Sanaa about how her life has changed since Oct 7th and how she managed to reach Cairo. Sanaa bravely shares her story and her perspective on the ongoing war – and considering everything she has been through, her resilience and optimism in the face of such terrible adversity is admirable and worthy of emulation. A link to Sanaa’s GoFundMe, which she is using to get the rest of her family out of Gaza, is above.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(04:00) – Hell in Gaza

(16:03) – Escape to Cairo

(21:50) - What is the state of Palestinian refugees?

(27:05) – Can there be peace?

(29:55) - Hamas

(32:30) - How do we end the current conflict?

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Referenced in the Show:

If you want to donate to Sanaa’s GoFundMe, here is the link: https://www.gofundme.com/f/help-the-kamal-family-escape-gaza

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CI Site: cognitive.investments

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

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Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

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Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob and Rob return for a weekly chat about South Korea’s economy and challenges posed by the Asian economic model. They pivot to a discussion about entrepreneurship and whether it is in decline in the West, discuss steel markets and questionable decision making from large-cap U.S. companies. They close with a discussion of the “chaos” at U.S. universities and draw a different conclusion than you might think.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) – Intro

(01:00) - Lessons from ROK

(17:22) – Entrepreneurship

(35:18) – Steel

(49:23) – University upheaval

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Referenced in the Show:

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CI Site: cognitive.investments

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

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Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

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Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob welcomes Dee Smith on the podcast. Dee and Jacob have had several conversation on Real Vision, but Jacob wanted to host Dee himself so they could talk about whatever they wanted. This podcast sure does deliver that – they talk about whether the world is actually getting worse (Jacob is an optimist and Dee a pessimist on that score), and even dive into an extended discussion on immortality…and why thinking about deep humanistic questions is actually at the core of everything we discuss on this podcast.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(02:40) – Dee's 2024 outlook

(10:45) – Hans Morgenthau, Multipolarity, Understanding complex systems

(23:23) – Is the world getting more/less stable?

(29:30) – Immortality (Philosophical)

(37:15) - Russia & Putin

(48:46) – Mexico

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Referenced in the Show:

Politics Among Nations: https://archive.org/details/politicsamongnat0006morg

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CI Site: cognitive.investments

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

It’s been too long since Jacob and Marko, cousins by choice, got together to record a podcast. They dive deep into what Trump winning the presidency again could mean for global geopolitics and trade – while addressing topics like U.S. inflation, Iran’s attacks on Israel, U.S. v global investing opportunities, and…of course…hot basketball takes.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(02:07) – U.S. Economy

(20:17) - Israel/Iran/KSA

(25:13) - What happens if Trump wins?

(33:44) – Trump/Biden scenarios

(38:30) - Biden's track record and trade deals

(46:36) - Tariffs

(59:36) - Multipolarity, bipolarity, charts and the future

(1:05:03) U.S. v. Global (shout out Louis Gave)

(01:11:50) - Basketball hot takes

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Referenced in the Show:

Louis Gave’s slides: https://research.gavekal.com/documents/10192/Unfoldinginflboom-apr2024.pdf

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CI Site: cognitive.investments

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

 Yaroslav Trofimov, chief foreign-affairs correspondent at The Wall Street Journal, takes time out of his busy travel schedule to join the podcast to discuss his recent book, Our Enemies Will Vanish – The Russian Invasion and Ukraine's War of Independence. Jacob and Yaroslav talk a little bit about his background before exploring some of the ideas he develops in his book – and looking toward Ukraine’s future, which Yaroslav makes the case is not so uncertain: that Ukraine’s independence has been secured in some form or another.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:40) – Yuroslav's Background

(7:20) – How did Russia get here?

(13:30) - Why did everyone underestimate Ukraine?

(22:40) – Zelensky v Zaluzhny

(27:04) - When are Ukraine's next elections?

(29:49) – Is the Russia/Ukraine war a stalemate? How much does Russia want?

(36:18) - German and European perspective on the war

(39:30) - Ukraine's relationship with China

(41:11) – The future

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Referenced in the Show:

Our Enemies Will Vanish - Yuroslav Trofimov: https://www.amazon.com/Our-Enemies-Will-Vanish-Independence/dp/0593655184

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CI Site: cognitive.investments

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Iran launched a bunch of missiles and drones. What next?

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CI Site: cognitive.investments

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob and Rob discuss the nature of economic crises, before exploring recent developments in the U.S.-China-Japan love triangle. They also explore the expectedly/unexpectedly hot CPI print and take lessons for the future. Spoiler alert: We think the market is wrong about the yen!

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:12) – Taxonomy of crashes/debating globalization

(12:26) – China, Janet Yellen,

(27:34) – Japan

(47:00) – Globalization revisited

(55:00) – Shameless plug

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Referenced in the Show:

NYRB article: https://www.nybooks.com/articles/2024/04/04/the-crash-next-time-seven-crashes-harold-james/

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CI Site: cognitive.investments

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Rob and Jacob are back at it. They discuss the earthquake in Taiwan and why they are skeptical of Taiwan’s economic future. From there they turn to a controversial article about how immigration has been driving US GDP growth and why demographics are not destiny. They close with some thoughts about the straitjacket of specialization and the dangers of too much expertise.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:10) - Taiwan

(19:40) - Coronal Mass Ejections and Black Swans

(23:07) – Taiwan

(25:10) – Immigration/Demographics

(45:30) – India

(47:30) – Historians rule

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Referenced in the Show:

• Angus Deaton – https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2024/03/Symposium-Rethinking-Economics-Angus-Deaton
• Immigration and the US Economy – https://www.briefingbook.info/p/immigration-and-the-us-economy-since?utm_campaign=email-post&r=bkto&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
• Assuring Taiwan’s Innovation Future – https://carnegieendowment.org/2020/01/29/assuring-taiwan-s-innovation-future-pub-80920

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CI Site: cognitive.investments

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob welcomes James Meadway, former British treasury official and current economist at The Progressive Economy Forum on for a cross-posted episode of Cognitive Dissidents and Macrodose. They discuss James’s recent essay about why COVID was both an accelerant of underlying trends, but also the first “crisis of the Anthropocene,” a phrase borrowed from Adam Tooze. They explore issues related to debt, climate, and prospects for growth.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:39) – Defining terms

(11:41) – Weaponizing finance

(20:50) – Crypto/Milei

(28:00) - WW3 + Ecological disasters

(40:57) – Debt

(45:15) – Can we grow our way out of the problem?

(51:30) – Silver linings playbook

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Referenced in the Show:

Link to Macrodose: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/macrodose/id1646528688

Link to James’s essay: https://socialistregister.com/index.php/srv/article/view/42873

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CI Site: cognitive.investments

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob has been growing increasingly more concerned about Ukraine, so he starts his bottom-up analytical review of the war and Ukraine’s prospects by hosting Sim Tack on the podcast. Jacob throws a bucket of questions at Sim to try and figure out what, if anything, has changed at a strategic level in the war. From there they speculate on European support for Ukraine in the future, whether Ukraine can still win, and a reframing of what could actually take Russia out of the war.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:12) – Lessons from Avdiivka

(13:10) – Signposts for Ukrainian and Russian collapse

(24:00)– Can Ukraine still win?

(29:30)– Sim’s take on Macron/French support for Ukraine

(38:30) – Where does the ammunition come from and

(40:43) – Ukraine's F16's

(47:54) - Zelensky v Zaluzhny and what it would take to get Russia out of the war

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Referenced in the Show:

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CI Site: cognitive.investments

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor