I’d like to thank the Austin Business Journal for carrying on this decade-long tradition of sporadically mentioning Nutrabolt IPO rumors after each new major business milestone has been reached. The first IPO rumors showed up in an August 2014 PricePlow blog post…after it noticed a spike in search traffic related to Nutrabolt receiving a significant minority investment from private equity firm, MidOcean Partners. Then, at the end of 2022…I predicted Nutrabolt would go public within the next year after receiving an $863 million investment from Keurig Dr Pepper. But what major business milestone did Nutrabolt recently reach that restarted this IPO rumors heading into 2025? Nutrabolt just exceeded one billion dollars in trailing twelve months retail sales data. And you might be wondering…how elusive is that feat? Within the ingestible CPG categories of food, beverage, and supplements…there’s only about 80 total brands that currently exceed one billion dollars in annual retail sales. In 2002, Nutrabolt (legally known as Woodbolt Distribution) was founded with the launch of the sports nutrition brand Cellucor. And then nine years later, Cellucor launched the C4 pre-workout product, which is currently (and has been for much of the last decade) the leading pre-workout brand globally. In early-2017, Nutabolt acquired Scivation, the maker of the top-selling post-workout recovery brand Xtend. But it was a year later when Nutrabolt made the single-most important decision in the company history to-date by launching carbonated C4 Energy drinks, which as I just mentioned essentially forced that hero SKU of Cellucor to be spun off into its own platform brand. Additionally, Nutrabolt acquired a significant minority stake in Bloom Nutrition last January…having the strategic foresight to allocate a portion of that KDP capital beyond simply fueling the energy drinks segment growth. And by all accounts a year later that strategic investment decision has paid off mightily…especially after Nutrabolt helped Bloom successfully launch its own energy drink about six months ago. And as I predicted…with KDP being impressed by the standout launch Bloom energy drinks had at Target last summer, it decided in October to sign a national sales and distribution deal with the female-forward positioned brand that began officially this month. But while Bloom might’ve been the first significant minority (but strategic) investment…I don’t see it being the last. And that’s because since that Nutrabolt and KDP deal content…I’ve been forthcoming on my belief that the executive leadership team is strategically focused on building a health and wellness focused version of Unilever. But while some portfolio expansion might come from internal brand (and product) development, I believe most will happen from accretive deal making that extends Nutrabolt into more key consumer-driven wellness platforms. So, my latest first principles thinking content will start by stating assumptions of the Nutrabolt investment criteria...but then explain which brands I believe could be potential fits for Nutrabolt within the attractive consumer-driven wellness platforms of healthy longevity need states like brain/cognitive health and gut health, but also protein and hydration. Potential Targets mention include: LMNT, Seed Health, Timeline Longevity, Thorne Healthtech, Neutonic, and Legendary Foods

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Each year, we’re currently adding more than 70 million new humans to the planet…which should make your head spin if you attempt to grasp how the food supply will handle this immense population proliferation. Were you able to pull an idea out of thin air? Wait a minute…that’s it! In the 1970s, NASA invented a method that allowed astronauts to use oxygen supplies to grow food. While this food technology was basically forgotten for four decades, the nascent air-fermentation-based proteins market is now rushing to scale up production and commercialize. And I’m sure skeptical consumers will scoff that microbes fed on carbon dioxide, hydrogen, and oxygen can produce edible protein…but it’s now not a matter of “if” but “when” global food production will be disrupted by precision fermentation and cellular agriculture.

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If you haven’t noticed by now, I enjoy deconstructing the core mechanics behind different business models to see what makes them successful or not. It means dissecting how various companies generate revenue, understand their value propositions, identify their target markets, and examine the various strategies they use to deliver products and/or services. But I arguably have the most fun when analyzing companies that are generally outside of (but through some strategic decision is now entering) my deep domain expertise…which is the emerging and intersecting CPG categories of functional foods, functional beverages, and nutritional supplements. And this is exactly what happened when Factor, America’s leading ready-to-eat meal delivery service, recently announced the launch of its new supplements brand, Factor Form. In November 2020, Factor was acquired by the global leader of meal kits (HelloFresh) for $277 million…which was slightly below 3x revenue of Factor that year. And while I’m not sure the exact percentage that Factor contributes to the overall “ready-to-eat” product category revenue at HelloFresh right now (partly because of another categorical acquisition in 2021), it has grown substantially over the last four years…with the last earnings report release stating $1.6 billion in categorical revenue generated in first 9 months of 2024. So, with that type of growth in its core food offering…why even dabble in developing your own nutritional supplements brand extension? But also are meal delivery services developing their own nutritional supplements brand even a completely novel business strategy or simply another remix? And I’ve said it once and I’ll likely need to keep saying it until I’m blue in the face…but everything is a remix of the past (especially within the interesting CPG categories of functional foods, functional beverages, and nutritional supplements). So, I thought it would be fun to explore a few different strategic inspirations that could’ve been integrated into the decision by Factor to create Factor Form supplements. Finally, my latest first principles thinking content will explore my outlook for these business model combinations of offering “meal delivery services” and nutritional supplements.

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What does the mythical phoenix bird rising from its own ashes after bursting into flames have in common with a Canadian supplement brand going public through a reverse takeover transaction? On December 19, 2024, a reverse takeover transaction involving Cizzle Brands was completed…and it was granted conditional approval to list its common shares on CBOE Canada (on December 30, 2024) under the stock ticker symbol CZZL. I’m sure most haven’t heard of Cizzle Brands yet...and that probably stems from the fact that CWENCH, the company’s flagship supplement brand, launched only seven months ago. Moreover, the second brand within the Cizzle Brands portfolio, Spoken Nutrition, hasn’t even launched yet. But I’m sure you’re now wondering why is (or how does) a “year one” company already go public…and that might be best answered if you understood the Cizzle Brands founder and CEO (and much of its leadership team). And that’s because before John Celenza started Cizzle Brands…he was a co-founder (and CEO) of BioSteel Sports Nutrition. But eventually, all good things must come to an end…and Canopy Growth (who acquired Biosteel in 2019) ceased its funding of hydration beverage brand in September 2023 (stating the brand was burning through $15 million in cash a month and failing to build momentum in the U.S. sports drinks market). When BioSteel was put up for sale in a court-supervised process, multiple parties expressed interest in potentially buying the company out of bankruptcy. And that included a group led by the Biosteel co-founder (and longtime CEO) John Celenza…ultimately losing to a more competitive offer by current owner Dan Crosby. But instead of wallowing in defeat, Cizzle Brands was created essentially out of those bankruptcy ashes…with previous leadership team members that were focused on recreating the specialness of the pre-acquisition Biosteel brand. And my latest first principles thinking content will analyze the strategic plan, financial performance, and innovation pipeline at Cizzle Brands.

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Can we all agree that Liquid Death is the king of the CPG industry when it comes to brand collaborations? It’s newest LTO merch offering solves a major golf etiquette problem…especially for those that “had one too many” Liquid Death and believe golf courses are essentially just massive public bathrooms. Now…instead of always running to the woods to pee, golfers can whizz right on the course in front of everyone. To make this public urination dream become a reality, Liquid Death partnered with not only Bad Birdie (one of the most disruptive golf apparel brands), but also one of the first entrepreneurs/inventors to get a deal on the first season of Shark Tank. And if you were wondering, The Uro Club is essentially a urinal for golfers, disguised as a golf club.

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On the Monday before the Christmas holiday, USANA Health Sciences (which if you didn’t know is a U.S. public company trading on the NYSE under the stock ticker USNA) announced its acquisition of an almost 79% controlling ownership stake in Hiya Health for a $205 million cash transaction…with contract features providing acquisition of the remaining equity at a pre-negotiated valuation scale. For the last twelve months ended September 30, 2024, Hiya Health generated net sales of $103 million and adjusted EBITDA of $22 million. That implies a transaction value of approximately 2.5x trailing twelve months revenue or almost 12x adjusted EBITDA…both of which are mostly in line with recent M&A transactions across the VMS industry. And though other founders love to obsess over those comparative metrics, regardless of where they landed, I’d imagine this is an amazing financial outcome for a company that was only founded four years ago…and raised in total a measly half-million dollars. But why would a multilevel marketing supplement company, that generates more than 80 percent of its annual revenue within the Asia Pacific region, acquire a direct-to-consumer (DTC) children’s supplement brand focused on the U.S. market? And my latest first principles thinking content will explain the strategic rationale behind this M&A transaction including how the multilevel marketing business model appears to be falling flat for some companies after years of public scrutiny, regulatory pressures, and changing consumer tastes. Also, I'll examine several other value accretive investment opportunities that USANA has pursued to advance its long-term growth strategy. In December 2020, USANA made a strategic investment in the protein bar brand manufacturer Built Brands. Beyond receiving a minority equity stake (in a growing company), Built Brands’ expertise was leveraged to accelerate the development, enhancement, and expansion USANA nutrition bars that were to be manufactured in its new foods plant. And then in November 2022, USANA acquired the protein bar brand Rise Bar. Additionally, in that same announcement…USANA acquired an emerging direct selling company (called Oola) that leverages a personal development framework to sell “mind and body” supplements. But for these companies dropping multilevel marketing…it’s always important to remember that “grass isn’t always greener on the other side.” But with the form of direct selling invented 80 years ago by Carl Rehnborg now becoming a tainted term of sorts today…I’d expect more of these MLM companies to add diversified layers of growth. Yet don’t get it twisted…these moves are mostly targeted at slightly camouflaging the primary business model just long enough until multilevel marketing can be reframed (and transformed) into something more attractive to younger digitally native generations.

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Comparing Poppi and Olipop is like comparing a college sorority girl and a biochemistry lab nerd. So, why does it seem surprising to most beverage industry pundits that consumers aren’t worried about recent claims disputing Poppi’s good-for-your-gut reputation? In the two months since Poppi was hit by a widely publicized class action lawsuit, retail sales numbers continue to crush harder than I am now after seeing Poppi co-founder Allison Ellsworth kill that dance. I’m joking guys…happily married, but what’s not so funny is how these product claims lawsuits have become almost like a “rite of passage” for any functional CPG category that “crossing the chasm” towards majority adoption. My advice for entrepreneurs…focus on building a bold strategic narrative over emphasizing product features (and associated health claims) ASAP, because it will undoubtedly lower your legal risk.

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Several years ago, I explored three strategic paths of extending into nutritional supplements that would be available to major lifestyle brands predominantly known for athletic apparel. And those were obviously entering the supplement category through acquisition, internal brand development, or creating a strategic partnership. But since that original content was released, several large athletic apparel brands have indeed decided to extend into nutritional supplements...and by leveraging each of those three strategic paths. The first example was ALO Yoga that internally developed its three SKU Stackable Wellness System that launched in August 2023. Next, an example of entering the supplement category through M&A happened in January 2024 when NOBULL acquired Tom Brady’s wellness company TB12. Finally, the recent Reebok Nutrition announcement officially provided me with that final strategic path...with the multibillion-dollar global brand (now owned by Authentic Brand Group) deciding to enter the ingestible CPG world through maybe the least risky (and definitely most comfortable) manner of leveraging a licensing partnership. And I state that because ABG knows licensing extremely well…as it’s the world’s largest sports and entertainment licensing company. So, who’s the strategic partner ABG chose for Reebok Nutrition? That would be Generation Joy, which is admittedly not a company I had ever heard of prior to this Reebok Nutrition announcement. From a quick search, it seems Generation Joy was founded in 2016 by certified holistic health coach Joy Harari. The first (or at least the most commercially successful) creation from Generation Joy is a nutricosmetic cosmeceutical mashup brand leveraging marine collagen called Shore Magic. But more importantly, my latest first principles thinking content will explore (1) why did Reebok decide now is the time to enter the sports nutrition market and (2) what could impact the probability that Reebok Nutrition will be successful?

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It was once famously said that “life can only be understood backwards; but it must be lived forwards.” And that is certainly true regarding how the “Great Shutdown” era impacted American society. But while much of that story is still being written several years later…we can be quite confident that the way people approach their personal health (and wellness) will never quite be the same again. As an example, occasion-based vitamins and supplements thrived as consumers invested in certain condition-specific products seen as more beneficial when battling against “Great Shutdown” paradigm shifts. And arguably the most prominent activity that year involved immune health…with the Nutrition Business Journal reporting a retail sales spike of over 70% YoY in 2020, as “cold, flu, and immunity” supplements experienced something like $2 billion in additional categorical demand. But after that skyrocketing commercial activity, the “cold, flu, and immunity” VMS category has experienced several years straight of consistent mid-single-digits YoY retail sales decline. Additionally, household penetration for immunity-related VMS products have dropped by over five percentage points since 2020. So then…should we assume that immune health is no longer a high priority for consumers? Not exactly…as it seems even despite that decline in commercial activity, various consumer surveys throughout 2024 have noted immune health remains an important motivating factor for supplement use. Moreover, survey findings show that a quarter of U.S. consumers are increasing their use of supplements to boost immunity…with approximately 1 in 6 regularly taking an immune health supplement. So, what’s going on within the immunity-related CPG space? Are the last several years of negative categorical growth indicative of its outlook? Or is the future ripe with market opportunities? My latest first principles thinking content will explore those questions by first examining a few underlying drivers of demand like around the implications of consumers understanding that immunity needs are multidimensional and making it a constant year-long health condition pursuit...along with how “fear” influenced the purchasing of immunity-related CPG products in 2020. And since we’re talking about consumer packaged goods…I'll briefly explaining where I see the “product” opportunities emerging within the “immune health” space. Also, I'll detail an often-overlooked strategic element when it comes to the immunity-related CPG market, that too many companies focus on the dry product benefits when the opportunity is really in emotive storytelling that makes offerings more relatable and tangible.

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Yogurt! Yogurt! I hate Yogurt! Even with strawberries. Maybe Rick Moranis doesn’t like yogurt because he also has the technology to blow up and then shrink people…but for the more than 37 million Americans with type 2 diabetes, yogurt consumption could be on the rise. That’s because the FDA just announced it will allow the first ever qualified health claim for yogurt…recognizing that three servings per week may reduce the risk of type 2 diabetes. Diabetes is a top 10 cause of death in America…which is partly why GLP-1 medications, that can help manage the disease, have become so popular. But even if those GLP-1 users are more concerned with weight loss, 42% of new yogurt launches “high in protein” claims…which has become a key nutrient gap that will need to be filled in the “Age of Ozempic.”

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