Why did the U.S. subsidiary that owns Stoli vodka (and many other alcohol brands) recently filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection? The most obvious answer is that everyone in America has stopped drinking alcohol, right? But if only every complex question could be answered plain and simple! Unfortunately, this is a dark tale twisted in time that arguably started with a countertrade agreement that eventually involved Pepsi owning a fleet of Soviet military ships. No really…watch the related video I tagged. But things never seemed less complicated with Stoli (even into the 2000s), as its billionaire owner was exiled from his home country because of opposition to President Vladimir Putin. And if that wasn’t bad enough, an ongoing legal battle with Russia (and recent cyber-attack) left the company’s finances and global operations in dismay…thus providing the more complicated answer around bankruptcy.

Private label CPG is growing…and fast! Many will point to continued inflation as the major support for consumers switching to private-label alternatives, but what if it stems from a grocery retail CAPEX investment theme that started a decade earlier? Consider the digitalization of supermarkets…facial recognition cameras, AI-powered smart carts, smartphone apps, and I could keep going, but harnessing this Big Data can certainly help grocers create better private label products. So, yes…grocery retailers have been investing heavily into private label product innovation, brand development, and incremental store placement. But what’s feeding those new private labels (like Walmart’s bettergoods) that look, taste, and are positioned more like trendy emerging CPG brands…are those supermarkets now having access a mountain of new valuable consumer data points. And to be completely honest…that should scare the hell out of CPG brands.

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Looking back is a source of inspiration…rather than a sign of stagnation. But if there is no progress…there must be decline, right? Yet, I’m sure we’re all astutely aware of trend cycles across various forms of cultural expression. And one of my personal favorites can be seen through the Hip Hop music I grew up listening to. And that’s because Hip Hop music isn’t just inspired by jazz and soul…it’s made by recycling and reimagining snippets from those classic records. In fact, the art of music sampling is what inspired one of my most used strategic mantras said countless times throughout my content…everything is a remix of the past. And I’ll probably keep needing to say it until my face turns blue, but if you want to create something that has a lasting impact on today’s CPG world, it needs to be combo of “new” yet “familiar.” Do something too closely related to the market leader and consumers won’t take notice…but do something too novel and they’re confused. Within the CPG industry, most successful products do not arrive out of nowhere; they’re remixes that recycle and reimagine existing (or past) snippets. And while I’d argue that “remixing” has always been an effective product strategy… there’s maybe a “driver of demand” that has been strengthened because of recent economic cycles that went from “goldilocks business era” of the 2010s to the "Great Shutdown" and then finally the highest rate of food inflation since the early 1980s. Currently, value-seeking shopping behavior is creating a smaller “margin of error” overall for CPG brands…which could be partly why the total number of new products launched has been decreasing with each year. And it’s not only the total number of new CPG products…but the proportion of “Big I innovation” compared to “Little I innovation.” So, maybe what consumers are demonstrating is that there’s room for new…but priority is being placed on modern versions of proven CPG products. Or as I’m about to detail, proven functional ingredients utilized within my deep domain expertise…which is the emerging and intersecting CPG categories of functional foods, functional beverages, and nutritional supplements. Is it just me or have you noticed this “rebirth of functional ingredients” phenomenon happening (it seems) more frequently (or maybe more noticeably) of late? And my latest first principles thinking content will explore how new ideas, ingredients, formats, and other elements may come and go…but some variables will perpetually stay and become foundational to the ways in which we consume. But if we’re talking about functional ingredients, it requires a scientific flywheel that’s still spinning quickly! And that’s because while many functional ingredients were popularized within that shadowy niche of sports nutrition, an ever-growing body of research with positive results has broadened use cases and expanded demographics…making them almost must-have staples for everyone. I'll share successful examples like collagen peptides, creatine, colostrum, and I predict HMB next! Whether its because of the growing healthy longevity trend or “Age of Ozempic” craze…mainstream society has a greater understanding around the importance of muscle health and strength.

When you read the headline “Jenny Craig owner acquires Ancient Nutrition,” it might leave you befuddled…but what if I told you everything actually makes perfect sense? Wellful was essentially created in 2021 when Kainos Capital, a middle-market consumer products focused private equity firm, merged the direct-to-consumer weight management meal solution brand Nutrisystem with the supplement brand portfolio Adaptive Health. But then you need to know that Adaptive Health was formed when Direct Digital acquired the supplement brand portfolio Healthy Directions. And hopefully you’re still keeping up…but you’d finally need to know that Healthy Directions was created in the early 1990s after newsletter readers began calling Phillips Publishing to find out where they could buy the nutritional products recommended by its doctors. The earliest products (and supplement brands) that made up Healthy Directions were all developed by some of America’s most recognized doctors. Can you see where I’m going with this “connect the dots” game now? Who was the co-founder (and face) of Ancient Nutrition? That would be functional medicine, digestive health, and herbal remedies expert Dr. Josh Axe. And if you’re wondering how Jenny Craig got tossed into my introduction…Wellful acquired the weight management brand in mid-2023. The acquisition of Ancient Nutrition is said to further strengthen Wellful’s presence in various supplement categories and expand its distribution footprint into the natural retail channel. Ancient Nutrition was founded in 2016 by the beforementioned Dr. Josh Axe and Jordan Rubin (who also founded Garden of Life…a supplement brand that was acquired by Nestle). And while Ancient Nutrition offers around 200 SKUs now…it’s early “claim to fame” was pioneering Bone Broth Protein supplementation that delivered the benefits of homemade bone broth in a convenient, easy-to-mix form. But transporting back to the late-2010s, Ancient Nutrition was definitely responsible for driving key paleo, collagen, and grass-fed supplement trends across all sales channels. Moreover, Ancient Nutrition became a top-selling protein brand within the natural channel and one of the fastest-growing supplement brands overall. And that immense level of early success led private equity firms VMG Partners and Hillhouse to invest $103 million into Ancient Nutrition. But during these almost seven years since that huge capital injection, I’d call the brand’s journey fascinating…but it’s important to understand that word could have vastly diverse meaning depending on the stakeholder. And my latest first principles thinking content will explain what I meant by that statement...along with examine what Wellful is trying to accomplish with its portfolio architecture.

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What I’d consider traditional AI has already been built into many backend aspects of the CPG industry, but what about generative AI? I like to describe the ideal CPG industry AI scenario by using an analogy involving NFL offensive lineman. While these players are absolutely essential for success, you typically only acknowledge them when there’s a holding penalty. In the same manner, generative AI will become vital for CPG brands to win long-term. But it’s probably not from the gimmicky or cringy ways it’s being paraded around currently within the industry. Do consumers really want an AI-assisted Coca-Cola flavor? Or should Unilever call out that it’s using AI to predict and optimize the shelf life of products? While these might not be high-risk applications of AI, I believe consumers aren’t exactly sold on the “in your face” auto-generated CPG product future.

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I’d like to thank the Austin Business Journal for carrying on this decade-long tradition of sporadically mentioning Nutrabolt IPO rumors after each new major business milestone has been reached. The first IPO rumors showed up in an August 2014 PricePlow blog post…after it noticed a spike in search traffic related to Nutrabolt receiving a significant minority investment from private equity firm, MidOcean Partners. Then, at the end of 2022…I predicted Nutrabolt would go public within the next year after receiving an $863 million investment from Keurig Dr Pepper. But what major business milestone did Nutrabolt recently reach that restarted this IPO rumors heading into 2025? Nutrabolt just exceeded one billion dollars in trailing twelve months retail sales data. And you might be wondering…how elusive is that feat? Within the ingestible CPG categories of food, beverage, and supplements…there’s only about 80 total brands that currently exceed one billion dollars in annual retail sales. In 2002, Nutrabolt (legally known as Woodbolt Distribution) was founded with the launch of the sports nutrition brand Cellucor. And then nine years later, Cellucor launched the C4 pre-workout product, which is currently (and has been for much of the last decade) the leading pre-workout brand globally. In early-2017, Nutabolt acquired Scivation, the maker of the top-selling post-workout recovery brand Xtend. But it was a year later when Nutrabolt made the single-most important decision in the company history to-date by launching carbonated C4 Energy drinks, which as I just mentioned essentially forced that hero SKU of Cellucor to be spun off into its own platform brand. Additionally, Nutrabolt acquired a significant minority stake in Bloom Nutrition last January…having the strategic foresight to allocate a portion of that KDP capital beyond simply fueling the energy drinks segment growth. And by all accounts a year later that strategic investment decision has paid off mightily…especially after Nutrabolt helped Bloom successfully launch its own energy drink about six months ago. And as I predicted…with KDP being impressed by the standout launch Bloom energy drinks had at Target last summer, it decided in October to sign a national sales and distribution deal with the female-forward positioned brand that began officially this month. But while Bloom might’ve been the first significant minority (but strategic) investment…I don’t see it being the last. And that’s because since that Nutrabolt and KDP deal content…I’ve been forthcoming on my belief that the executive leadership team is strategically focused on building a health and wellness focused version of Unilever. But while some portfolio expansion might come from internal brand (and product) development, I believe most will happen from accretive deal making that extends Nutrabolt into more key consumer-driven wellness platforms. So, my latest first principles thinking content will start by stating assumptions of the Nutrabolt investment criteria...but then explain which brands I believe could be potential fits for Nutrabolt within the attractive consumer-driven wellness platforms of healthy longevity need states like brain/cognitive health and gut health, but also protein and hydration. Potential Targets mention include: LMNT, Seed Health, Timeline Longevity, Thorne Healthtech, Neutonic, and Legendary Foods

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Each year, we’re currently adding more than 70 million new humans to the planet…which should make your head spin if you attempt to grasp how the food supply will handle this immense population proliferation. Were you able to pull an idea out of thin air? Wait a minute…that’s it! In the 1970s, NASA invented a method that allowed astronauts to use oxygen supplies to grow food. While this food technology was basically forgotten for four decades, the nascent air-fermentation-based proteins market is now rushing to scale up production and commercialize. And I’m sure skeptical consumers will scoff that microbes fed on carbon dioxide, hydrogen, and oxygen can produce edible protein…but it’s now not a matter of “if” but “when” global food production will be disrupted by precision fermentation and cellular agriculture.

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If you haven’t noticed by now, I enjoy deconstructing the core mechanics behind different business models to see what makes them successful or not. It means dissecting how various companies generate revenue, understand their value propositions, identify their target markets, and examine the various strategies they use to deliver products and/or services. But I arguably have the most fun when analyzing companies that are generally outside of (but through some strategic decision is now entering) my deep domain expertise…which is the emerging and intersecting CPG categories of functional foods, functional beverages, and nutritional supplements. And this is exactly what happened when Factor, America’s leading ready-to-eat meal delivery service, recently announced the launch of its new supplements brand, Factor Form. In November 2020, Factor was acquired by the global leader of meal kits (HelloFresh) for $277 million…which was slightly below 3x revenue of Factor that year. And while I’m not sure the exact percentage that Factor contributes to the overall “ready-to-eat” product category revenue at HelloFresh right now (partly because of another categorical acquisition in 2021), it has grown substantially over the last four years…with the last earnings report release stating $1.6 billion in categorical revenue generated in first 9 months of 2024. So, with that type of growth in its core food offering…why even dabble in developing your own nutritional supplements brand extension? But also are meal delivery services developing their own nutritional supplements brand even a completely novel business strategy or simply another remix? And I’ve said it once and I’ll likely need to keep saying it until I’m blue in the face…but everything is a remix of the past (especially within the interesting CPG categories of functional foods, functional beverages, and nutritional supplements). So, I thought it would be fun to explore a few different strategic inspirations that could’ve been integrated into the decision by Factor to create Factor Form supplements. Finally, my latest first principles thinking content will explore my outlook for these business model combinations of offering “meal delivery services” and nutritional supplements.

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What does the mythical phoenix bird rising from its own ashes after bursting into flames have in common with a Canadian supplement brand going public through a reverse takeover transaction? On December 19, 2024, a reverse takeover transaction involving Cizzle Brands was completed…and it was granted conditional approval to list its common shares on CBOE Canada (on December 30, 2024) under the stock ticker symbol CZZL. I’m sure most haven’t heard of Cizzle Brands yet...and that probably stems from the fact that CWENCH, the company’s flagship supplement brand, launched only seven months ago. Moreover, the second brand within the Cizzle Brands portfolio, Spoken Nutrition, hasn’t even launched yet. But I’m sure you’re now wondering why is (or how does) a “year one” company already go public…and that might be best answered if you understood the Cizzle Brands founder and CEO (and much of its leadership team). And that’s because before John Celenza started Cizzle Brands…he was a co-founder (and CEO) of BioSteel Sports Nutrition. But eventually, all good things must come to an end…and Canopy Growth (who acquired Biosteel in 2019) ceased its funding of hydration beverage brand in September 2023 (stating the brand was burning through $15 million in cash a month and failing to build momentum in the U.S. sports drinks market). When BioSteel was put up for sale in a court-supervised process, multiple parties expressed interest in potentially buying the company out of bankruptcy. And that included a group led by the Biosteel co-founder (and longtime CEO) John Celenza…ultimately losing to a more competitive offer by current owner Dan Crosby. But instead of wallowing in defeat, Cizzle Brands was created essentially out of those bankruptcy ashes…with previous leadership team members that were focused on recreating the specialness of the pre-acquisition Biosteel brand. And my latest first principles thinking content will analyze the strategic plan, financial performance, and innovation pipeline at Cizzle Brands.

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