More than two years ago, I began sharing early indicators around how GLP-1 pharmaceutical weight loss solutions were starting to impact various aspects of functional CPG product categories. And while only an estimated six percent of U.S. adults are currently prescribed GLP-1 medication, it has already become a major disruptor to the entire space. We’re already seeing brands make sharp repositioning moves, initially through mostly marketing communications, to ensure a boost from GLP-1 second-order effects is more probable. But when will the surge of product innovations happen? I’m predicting very soon because when patients are on them, GLP-1 drugs fundamentally change the way people interact with food and beverages. So, I’d expect CPG product innovations to materialize around smaller portion sizes, higher protein content, hydrating properties, and improving associated nausea or GI discomfort.

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The side hustle boom is happening across every age group, income level, and industry in America. And that should motivate the functional CPG space to spend extra time analyzing this cultural force. I’m the “product of a side hustle.” And I won’t bore you with all the personal details because it’s not contextually relevant, but I wouldn’t be who I am (or where I am) today if it wasn’t for a string of side hustle pursuits that began at the tail-end of my undergraduate education. But while “always having a side hustle” felt normal to me back then, it was quite unusual…as that late-2000s to early-2010s era was arguably the “side hustle culture” starting point that grew into today’s booming cultural movement, with many reports indicate a noticeable rise of side hustles following the Great Recession (particularly among millennials). And while Millennials are arguably still the “side hustle generation,” the maturation of the Internet (permeating into every nook and cranny of American life) has increased the side hustle accessibility. During the last few years, just slightly below 40% of adult Americans have a side hustle…with percentages closer to 50% with Millennials and Gen Z. In today’s evolving economy, more Americans than ever are embracing side hustles…not just as a source of supplemental income, but to build new skills that can be leveraged to advance their careers or eventually lead to working full-time for themselves. With “side hustle culture” broadening and maturing significantly since my first endeavor almost two decades ago, how does this profound shift in how people approach work, income generation, and time…impact the functional CPG categories of functional foods, functional beverages, and nutritional supplements? And I’m going to try avoiding “broad stroke” categorical impacts…instead focusing on three top physical/mental need states connected to this consumer segmentation. Because while today’s side hustlers are flipping the script on the typical “9-to-5 grind,” that second income still stream means more working hours. And obviously…time and energy aren’t infinite.When you’re working full-time, one must get creative to find the time for a side hustle. And the majority work on their side hustle in the evenings from 5-to-9 to avoid interfering with their regular job. So, with that day planning default information as a baseline…my latest first principles thinking content will examine the side hustle boom opportunity need states that I'm calling Focus & Flow, Relax Don't Burnout, and Sweet Dreams.

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We live in an era where health and wellness dominate public conversation, but one person’s voice remains arguably the most powerful catalyst for change. Even at 70-years-old (and more than a decade removed from daytime TV), Oprah Winfrey still very much has the potential to move society. While she’s been a major contributor to diet culture, it’s her recent public discourse that could mark a pivotal moment in public health. Despite the prevalence of obesity (and its association with numerous health complications), it has often been framed as a failure of individual willpower. But with GLP-1 medications recently getting the “Oprah Effect,” it has reframed obesity as a complex, treatable condition, and brought attention to these innovative treatments.

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With M&A transactions getting louder, it can only mean one thing…protein bar brands are starting to party like it’s 2019 again! In my April 2024 content, I stated for that "party to restart" the protein bar market needed increased deal announcements. And maybe not so surprisingly…it only took less than four months before a deal announcement included a protein bar brand that was included on my list. That’s because in early-August, international private equity firm Cinven announced that it had reached an agreement to become the lead investor in Vitamin Well Group, valuing the brand portfolio that includes Barebell protein bars at around $2.2 billion. But what sparked the inspiration for this content…was that about two weeks ago, another deal announcement included a protein bar brand from that list of attractive potential M&A targets. This time it was 1440 Foods acquiring FITCRUNCH, a protein bar brand that was co-founded a dozen years ago by celebrity chef Robert Irvine (and the contract manufacturer Bakery Barn). And the acquisition of FITCRUNCH by 1440 Foods makes perfect logical sense especially if your deep domain expertise includes the protein bar market. And that’s because you’d understand that the protein bar market (like the entire supplement industry) has mostly a “sea of sameness” composition. But where the protein bar (or functional foods space in general) varies is that differentiation can be derived from having a unique form factor. Furthermore, if that unique form factor proves popular…a competitive advantage can be created through defensibility if you own/created that manufacturing process. This is the story of FITCRUNCH…because if you remember what I said earlier, it was co-founded by the contract manufacturer Bakery Barn. So, as you likely realize…not only did 1440 Foods acquire FUTCRUNCH, but also vertical integration assets with Bakery Barn. This is super helpful across a number of strategic areas from financial to operational…as the core FITCRUNCH product being a multilayered baked process is much more complex than the typical extrusion or slab bars on the market. Additionally, while the financial details of this transaction were private…Bakery Barn customer concentration likely kept the EBIDTA multiple lower than typical contract manufacturing deals in the protein bar space. But beyond extracting value from the product complexity (uniqueness) and Bakery Barn vertical integration aspect, 1440 Foods acquired FITCRUNCH because its highly complementary to the existing brand portfolio of Pure Protein, MET-Rx, and Body Fortress. Additionally, this deepens the 1440 Foods concentration into the active nutrition sub-segment of convenient nutrition bars that has shown strong growth of late compared to the general grocery category. But my latest first principles thinking content will examine the near-term outlook 1440 Foods…and if the convenient nutrition brand portfolio is pointed towards an eventual IPO.

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Believe it or not…it’s already been five years since Post Holdings spun-off its “active nutrition brand portfolio” to create BellRing Brands. But while being nostalgic can be fun…I’m more interested in pondering what the next five years could look like. BellRing Brands (NYSE: BRBR) is a portfolio that owns a collection of convenient nutrition brands like Premier Protein and Dymatize Nutrition, which was previously wholly-owned by Post Holdings. A fast-paced and busy lifestyle is pushing consumers to switch to quick and healthy meal options. This has resulted in above average categorical growth rates and increased household penetration of RTD protein shakes that promote active lifestyles. Additionally, powders are becoming more mainstream, and category proliferation has created an environment where more consumers are purchasing both every day and performance nutrition positioned protein products at grocery stores and mass retailers. Bellring Brands had a strong 2024 Q4 with net sales reaching $555.8 million, which was up 17.6% YoY. Premier Protein (~85% of BellRing Brands total revenue) grew 20.3% YoY, which came from large volume increases. Dymatize Nutrition was up 3.9% YoY, stemming from volume increases within international markets. Moreover, I provide three deep dives into the functional CPG portfolio's "hero SKU families" of Premier Protein RTD protein shakes and Premier Protein and Dymatize protein powders. And it wasn’t until the BellRing Brands CEO shared on LinkedIn that they were “ringing the NYSE bell” in honor of their anniversary that I realized it’s already been five years since Post Holdings spun-off its “active nutrition brand portfolio” to create BellRing Brands. So, I'll start by getting a little nostalgic by sharing some of my thoughts from five years ago...and also provide a five-year performance update for BellRing Brands since the IPO. But even if that “historical recap” was enjoyable…I’m sure you’re more interested in my logic surrounding what could happen to BellRing Brands over the next five years. So, my latest first principles thinking content will predict how BellRing Brands evolves and matures in its brand strategy, product portfolio strategy, domestic distribution strategy, international expansion, and acquisitions (M&A). And then finally…you probably want me to tell you that BellRing Brands stock will again triple in the next five years, but I’m far from intelligent enough to predict something like that!

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Is the best college football coach of all time Nick Saban? Is “Goodfellas” the best mob movie? Does Handel’s Ice Cream taste the best? Or how about…am I the world’s best dad? There is no such thing as “best,” even if the art created by my newborn son Axton (that hangs on my home office wall) states that “hands down” I am the world’s best dad! There is no “best” or “worst,” only different…and everything has a value that can only be truly measured subjectively. So, despite CPG brands still lazily utilizing “best” within marketing…it shouldn’t be surprising to hear that people don’t buy products because of that meaningless superlative, but because of those products make them feel. And I think you’ll be able to easily pick up throughout my conversation with Jason Bronstad (CEO of MALK) that the premium plant-based milk brand is focused on human connection and shared experiences. MALK feels like a CPG brand that knows who they are (and more importantly who they aren’t), which is extremely important in today’s ultra-competitive CPG marketplace. Jason and I will talk about the simple yet sophisticated approach to product strategy at MALK…and how that’s been a foundational core belief that connects to other elements of the commercial strategy. We also talk through the lessons learned thus far as MALK evolves (and expands) away from that “supernatural channel grocery shopper.” Finally, Jason and I examine how MALK is leveraging the “celebrity smoothie collab” trend…and what that strategy could evolve into next. But these are just some of the interesting topics we chatted about in this episode...

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Do you remember last year when Kristen Bell and Dax Shepard revealed their kids sometimes order non-alcoholic beer at restaurants. Well…it sparked an important discussion around how the emerging alcohol-like beverage category fits into the consumption habits of minors. When Recess Mood or a “beer” from Athletic Brewing were conceptualized, these entrepreneurs created products with adults in mind. But broken down to their most basic ingredients, many are hardly different from juice, soda, or kombucha. So, with that in mind…should these drinks be legally off-limits to minors? There’s obviously a multitude of unknowns around long-term psychological impacts, but as a parent…I’d rather the decision be left to the home and not state governments. And that’s because these alcohol-like beverages could very well be a useful tool in steering young people away from the real thing.

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It took only a year, but it seems MusclePharm has again become a victim of product line extension creep. For those unaware, the supplement brands that are within the FitLife Brands portfolio are now categorized in three segments: Legacy FitLife Brands, which is broken into two sub-segments…NDS Products (which are a collection of brands mostly sold in the GNC franchise system), iSatori Products (which are a collection of brands sold through a diversified retail mix), and then Mimi’s Rock Corporation Products (which are a collection of brands mostly sold on Amazon), and MusclePharm. In total, the FitLife Brands portfolio is sold through more than 20,000 retail locations globally. In the third quarter of 2024, FitLife Brands Inc. (NASDAQ: FTLF) had revenues of $16 million…which was up 15% YoY. But though that YoY growth rate obviously looks strong, it’s important to remember that those reported results were greatly impacted by the MusclePharm acquisition that closed in October 2023. While there's strategic initiatives going on at legacy FitLife Brands and Mimi's Rock, the most intriguing segment within FitLife Brands is also currently its smallest...MusclePharm. In the third quarter of 2024, MusclePharm segment revenue was $2.5 million. And if you were wondering about YoY comparatives, let’s just say the Eric Hilman run MusclePharm bankrupt version outsold this current version. But that’s probably an apples-to-oranges comparison because Eric Hillman was focused on survival by any means necessary, and FitLife Brands is attempting to make strategic business decisions that support and optimize long-term growth. But while the sales channel mix of MusclePharm is currently 50/50 wholesale and online…it’s very likely the brand’s biggest long-term opportunities will come from offline retail. FitLife Brands has been making progress with new wholesale partners…noting that it secured placement for MusclePharm’s Combat Sport protein bars in several regional grocery and convenience chains. Moreover, FitLife Brands also announced that it would be launching a new advanced premium product line extension called MusclePharm Pro Series. The product lineup is said to currently consist of nine SKUs…and will be sold exclusively at The Vitamin Shoppe starting in the first quarter of next year. And here we go again! This has been a central theme within the MusclePharm story for much of the last decade…and what ultimately killed the sports nutrition brand. MusclePharm has chased off-brand trend after off-brand trend through line extensions…totally wrecking any semblance of what the brand stands for, and basically losing all emotional connection with consumers. Instead of supporting the brand/customer long-term, MusclePharm focused on pandering to retailer requests for this (or that) exclusive line extension. And while line extension creep at MusclePharm obviously started way before the acquisition, it’s surprising that FitLife Brands didn’t highlight that underlying driver of failure and learn from those past experiences. But all this shows me is that FitLife Brands still has no vision around MusclePharm.

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I’ve been fortunate enough to realize that my brain is hardwired to see consumer behaviors shifts early, model out those “drivers of demand,” understand what variables are moving categorical consumer markets, and match those up into actionable patterns and sequences with insane accuracy. If you haven’t picked up on it yet, my content creation acts as a sort of kaleidoscope-like artistic expression of that ability…providing underlying support for my conviction around non-consensus market-moving consumer trends. But there’s also another side of that…one that A LOT fewer people get to experience because of the inherent nature involving my strategic management consulting projects. Yet, this particular episode of conversational content required crossover into that other side. And that’s because well before Ryan Ankrom co-founded Anabar (one of the fastest-growing protein bars on the market), he got deeply intertwined to an early strategic management consulting project that was within my “build turnkey supplement brands for clients” era. But as you’ll hear throughout our conversation, all those experiences (and people met along the way) would become an important “butterfly effect” that led us both to where we are right now. Beyond that, Ryan and I will dive into several key strategic areas involving the last three years of building (and scaling) Anabar…including the brand’s embrace of a derogatory categorical claim and it’s Day 1 profit mindset that’s stayed consistent even with sales channel expansion. But this was definitely a different (but in a good way) type of conversation filled with many more interesting business topics...so I hope you enjoy.

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Has there been a more prolific NIL “bag getter” within functional CPG categories than college basketball players Haley and Hanna Cavinder? When college athletes began having the opportunity to receive financial compensation for their Name, Image and Likeness three years ago, the Cavinder twins secured a deal with Six Star Pro Nutrition on the first day. Then, they started working with the sports nutrition brand Bucked Up on an exclusive energy drink. And now…it was just announced Haley and Hanna Cavinder joined the canned protein beverage brand Slate as investors and brand ambassadors. According to NIL tracking sites, the Cavinder twins were projected to earn $1.7 million over the last year, which would rank them the seventh-biggest earners in college athletes. Love it or hate it…the advent of NIL has undeniably reshaped the landscape of college sports.

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