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The Lopsided Expansion | Aahan Menon on Why Long-Term Forecasts Don’t Make Money, And The Growing Divergence Between AI CapEx And Labor Market
Monetary Matters listeners can get 20% of Prometheus Macro Substack here: https://www.prometheus-macro.com/subscribe?coupon=a60c1c9f
Aahan Menon, founder of Prometheus Macro and a trusted "quant's quant" for sophisticated hedge funds, joins Jack Farley to explain why his models are signaling a meaningful shift down in risk. While previously striking a bullish tone, Aahan reveals why his institutional strategies have moved from "max bullish" to neutral on equities and commodities.
Aahan breaks down a concerning divergence in the economy: while GDP and spending are being propped up by a surge in AI CapEx and top-heavy consumption, the underlying labor market is weakening. He explains the "circularity" problem of AI investment—eventually, CapEx must turn into consumption, which requires wage growth that is currently stalling.
Later in the conversation, Aahan challenges core macro beliefs, presenting data on why long-term economic forecasting and tracking "rates of change" generate negligible or negative alpha. He also details his current positioning, including being short homebuilders, long French bonds against Japanese JGBs, and his "Crisis Protection" portfolio. Recorded on November 25, 2025.
Follow Aahan Menon on Twitter https://x.com/AahanPrometheus
Follow Prometheus Macro on Twitter https://x.com/prometheusmacro
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96
Follow Monetary Matters on:
Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh
Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5
YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez
View all episodes
By Jack Farley
4.9
138138 ratings
Monetary Matters listeners can get 20% of Prometheus Macro Substack here: https://www.prometheus-macro.com/subscribe?coupon=a60c1c9f
Aahan Menon, founder of Prometheus Macro and a trusted "quant's quant" for sophisticated hedge funds, joins Jack Farley to explain why his models are signaling a meaningful shift down in risk. While previously striking a bullish tone, Aahan reveals why his institutional strategies have moved from "max bullish" to neutral on equities and commodities.
Aahan breaks down a concerning divergence in the economy: while GDP and spending are being propped up by a surge in AI CapEx and top-heavy consumption, the underlying labor market is weakening. He explains the "circularity" problem of AI investment—eventually, CapEx must turn into consumption, which requires wage growth that is currently stalling.
Later in the conversation, Aahan challenges core macro beliefs, presenting data on why long-term economic forecasting and tracking "rates of change" generate negligible or negative alpha. He also details his current positioning, including being short homebuilders, long French bonds against Japanese JGBs, and his "Crisis Protection" portfolio. Recorded on November 25, 2025.
Follow Aahan Menon on Twitter https://x.com/AahanPrometheus
Follow Prometheus Macro on Twitter https://x.com/prometheusmacro
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96
Follow Monetary Matters on:
Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh
Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5
YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez
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