The OPEX Effect

SpotGamma founder Brent Kochuba joins Jack Forehand to break down September options expiration, the S&P 500's negative gamma risk, and what options positioning reveals about potential stock market volatility. They explore how rising oil prices, higher Treasury yields, and shifting AI sentiment could interact with a major expiration to change the market's direction.

Brent explains why he measures this expiration at roughly $2 trillion rather than the $9 trillion making headlines, why he is watching the S&P 500's 7,600 level, and how falling technology stock volatility changes the opportunity set for options.

Brent Kochuba on Twitter
https://x.com/brentkochuba

SpotGamma
https://spotgamma.com

Topics covered:

• How growing options volume and market maker hedging influence underlying stock prices.

• Why options expiration can change market trends and volatility as existing hedges unwind.

• The difference between headline options notional and SpotGamma's roughly $2 trillion delta-adjusted expiration estimate.

• What August's technology reset and Jackson Hole reaction reveal about investor positioning.

• How cheaper AI models, falling token prices, and public backlash complicate the technology investment story.

• Why declining semiconductor volatility and changing dispersion point to a potential market inflection.

• How negative gamma below S&P 7,600 could amplify selling, with 7,350 emerging as another level to watch.

• Why positive gamma in individual stocks could offset some of the index market's instability.

• How rising oil prices, Treasury yields, and stock correlations could challenge AI optimism and traditional stock-bond diversification.

• What CPI, the Fed meeting, VIX expiration, and midterm elections mean for hedging demand and options pricing.

Timestamps:
00:00 Why Brent sees downside risk near market highs
05:19 Bessent's "I'm the house" comment meets rising yields
10:38 Options exchange growth and the bear market question
15:29 Why OPEX changes market behavior and how to measure its size
20:40 What August's tech reset and Jackson Hole revealed
24:43 Can AI earnings overcome rising macro risks?
30:14 The tech wedge, falling semiconductor volatility, and gamma risk
35:20 How expiration could reduce negative gamma exposure
39:21 Oil, Treasury yields, and stock correlations move together
44:22 Why the reason interest rates rise matters for stocks
49:48 Election hedges, Fed uncertainty, and returning put demand
54:43 S&P 7,600 and positioning for volatility in either direction

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:

https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

In this episode of The OPEX Effect, Jack Forehand and SpotGamma founder Brent Kochuba break down how options expiration, 0DTE trading, dealer gamma and leveraged flows are shaping the stock market. They examine the shift from AI-driven speculation toward interest rates, the July tech volatility reset, and why Nvidia earnings and Jackson Hole could determine the market's next major move.

Brent Kochuba and SpotGamma on X
https://x.com/spotgamma

SpotGamma
https://spotgamma.com/

Topics covered

• Why the options market is shifting its focus from AI and token growth toward interest rates and macro data

• How record options volume creates hidden stock and futures flows through dealer hedging

• Why stock market trends and volatility frequently change around options expiration

• How 0DTE options have transformed SPX and Nasdaq trading and increased short-term mean reversion

• What the roughly $1 trillion August options expiration says about current investor positioning

• How July's leverage unwind contributed to sharp declines in Nasdaq, semiconductors and memory stocks

• Why leveraged ETFs, margin calls and options positioning can amplify moves that investors attribute to fundamentals

• What falling tech implied volatility and record-low put-call ratios say about AI speculation and investor risk appetite

• How the VIX term structure and the collapse in stock dispersion point to a broader, more stable market

• Why Nvidia earnings, Jackson Hole, bond positioning and dealer gamma could create a major move in either direction

Timestamps

00:00 Why the market is shifting from AI to interest rates
05:12 Record options volume and how dealer hedging moves stocks
11:10 Why market trends often flip around options expiration
15:51 How large is the August options expiration?
20:12 What July's tech volatility spasm taught us about positioning
28:03 Why tech implied volatility is falling as AI speculation cools
33:21 The VIX crush and what the volatility curve is pricing
38:25 How July OPEX helped trigger the great dispersion unwind
44:21 Nvidia, Jackson Hole and the volatility event markets are pricing
50:00 Gamma levels, downside risk and the market's key guardrails

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Brent Kochuba of SpotGamma is back for The OPEX Effect to explain why July options expiration could remove a major source of market support and open the door to a volatility spike or stock market correction. We examine positive gamma, ultra-low S&P 500 implied volatility, near-record-low correlation, extreme Nasdaq volatility, AI stock dispersion and why the current setup resembles July 2024 before a 10% drawdown.

Brent Kochuba on X
https://x.com/spotgamma

SpotGamma
https://spotgamma.com

Main topics covered

• Why markets have become numb to geopolitical risk, war headlines and oil volatility

• How market-maker hedging, positive gamma and systematic options selling stabilize stocks

• Why OPEX and VIX expiration can create a window of weakness or a window of strength

• How ETF growth, leveraged products and new listings create additional options exposure

• Why July OPEX is small for the S&P 500 but meaningful for AI and semiconductor stocks

• What happened to SpaceX volatility after traders sold expensive calls and puts

• Why expensive implied volatility can make put options lose money even when a stock falls

• What extreme COR1M and dispersion reveal about the divide beneath the market averages

• Why S&P 500 volatility is priced for perfection while Nasdaq volatility resembles a meme stock

• Why the VXN-VIX spread and July 2024 analog have Brent preparing for a potential correction

Timestamps

00:00 Why markets are ignoring geopolitical risk
05:16 How systematic options flows stabilize stocks
09:33 Gamma squeezes and why OPEX can reset market trends
13:37 Positive gamma and suppressed daily volatility
17:41 How new listings and ETFs feed into options markets
21:48 Why July OPEX is concentrated in single stocks
25:48 Reviewing June guardrails and the AI stock correction
30:39 July gamma support and the post-OPEX window of weakness
38:34 Near-record-low correlation and a fragile market setup
44:20 S&P 500 volatility is priced for perfection
48:31 Why options are serially underpricing volatility
52:31 How AI could reshape the Nasdaq and its volatility
57:54 Why July 2024 may be the key OPEX analog
01:02:02 Brent's market risk outlook and hedging plan

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co
No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

In this episode of The OPEX Effect, Brent Kochuba and Jack Forehand break down the market structure impact of the SpaceX IPO, options expiration, dealer gamma, volatility, and the next major setup for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. They discuss why SpaceX may trade more on flows than fundamentals, how call buying could create a gamma squeeze, and why June OPEX, VIX expiration, FOMC, oil, Iran headlines, and index inclusion could all collide at once.

Brent Kochuba on X
https://x.com/spotgamma

SpotGamma
https://spotgamma.com

Topics covered:

• Why SpaceX is a flows game at the start of trading

• How the SpaceX IPO could affect liquidity across mega cap tech stocks

• Why fundamentals may not matter when index flows and forced buying dominate

• The role of Nasdaq, Russell, and S&P 500 index decisions in SpaceX trading

• How options could create a gamma squeeze in SpaceX

• Why dealer hedging flows can push stocks higher or lower

• What June options expiration could mean for the S&P 500

• Why VIX expiration and FOMC create a key market window

• How Core1M signaled the recent volatility spasm

• Why expensive calls, not put buying, drove the recent market stress

• The key S&P 500 levels Brent is watching into OPEX

• How oil, rates, inflation, and Fed policy could affect market volatility

• Why Nasdaq options pricing is diverging from the S&P 500

• How SpaceX index inclusion could widen the gap between Nasdaq and the S&P

• What would make Brent add protection or look for another short-term market correction

Timestamps:

00:00 Opening clips and the SpaceX flow setup
05:27 Elon Musk net worth after the SpaceX IPO
07:13 SpaceX, liquidity, Mag Seven selling, and index demand
12:48 Why SpaceX may trade on flows before fundamentals
17:59 What options trading could change for SpaceX
22:05 How call buying can create a gamma squeeze
28:24 Why June OPEX matters more than a normal expiration
33:55 VIX expiration, FOMC, and market path dependency
37:20 The Core1M signal and the recent volatility spasm
41:22 The S&P 500 gamma map and key risk levels
46:25 Why expensive calls drove the market stress
50:14 Oil, rates, inflation, and the Fed setup
57:03 The JPMorgan collar and the 6900 to 7000 support zone
58:32 Nasdaq versus S&P 500 after the SpaceX IPO
01:03:14 Brent’s summary, SpaceX gamma squeeze risk, and the next market setup

Brent Kochuba of SpotGamma joins Jack Forehand for the May 2026 OPEX Effect to break down what options positioning is saying after a massive AI and semiconductor-led market rally. They discuss SPX call volume, zero DTE options, dealer gamma, VIX expiration, NVIDIA earnings, oil risk, AI CapEx, and why options flows may help explain both the market’s recent melt-up and the potential for a volatility shift after OPEX.

Guest Links

Brent Kochuba on X
https://x.com/spotgamma

SpotGamma
https://spotgamma.com/

Topics Covered

• Why the market has ignored oil shocks and geopolitical risk while AI earnings dominate investor attention

• How AI CapEx, semiconductors and mega-cap tech have driven a powerful melt-up in stocks

• Why options volume and zero DTE trading are increasingly important for all investors

• How dealer hedging, delta and gamma can affect stock market moves

• Why options expiration can create short-term turning points in markets and volatility

• What the May OPEX setup says about call-heavy positioning in the S&P 500

• Why single-stock options activity in NVIDIA, Tesla, Apple, Amazon and AI-related names matters

• How record SPX call volume is being driven by short-dated options flows

• Why Brent is watching VIX expiration, NVIDIA earnings and May 19 to May 20 for volatility expansion

• What oil, VIX, correlation and dispersion are signaling about market risk

Timestamps

00:00 Intro: SPX call volume, call-heavy positioning and transient options flows
00:57 Are we in melt-up mode?
05:29 AI, UFOs and how fast market narratives are changing
09:00 Why options flows matter more for everyday investors
13:39 Could SpaceX become the next huge options market?
16:00 How dealer hedging, delta and gamma move through the market
20:44 Why OPEX can become a turning point for stocks and volatility
23:22 Why May OPEX is so call heavy
28:07 The market rally into May expiration
33:00 AI rebranding, meme behavior and downside headline risk
36:07 Reviewing last month’s oil and volatility setup
40:17 How the war flipped market leadership back to tech
44:13 Dealer gamma support in the S&P 500
49:19 Single-stock gamma in NVIDIA, Tesla, Apple and Amazon
51:06 Record SPX call volume and the role of zero DTE
54:55 Semiconductor, AI and memory call volume
57:50 From bearish positioning to peak-bull dispersion
59:22 Oil, the S&P 500 and changing correlations
01:03:06 COR1M, dispersion risk and when Brent considers hedging
01:04:57 Brent’s key takeaways for May OPEX and volatility expansion

This episode of The Opex Effect breaks down why markets have remained surprisingly resilient despite geopolitical chaos, an oil shock, and extreme headline risk. Brent Kochuba joins Jack Forehand to analyze what’s really driving the market beneath the surface—from options flows and gamma positioning to the collapse in volatility and what it signals for the next move.

They explore how the options market is shaping price action in ways most investors miss, why the VIX collapsed despite elevated risk, and what positioning tells us about the path forward as we head into earnings and the next major options expiration.

Topics covered:

• Why markets have stayed near highs despite war, oil spikes, and macro uncertainty

• The “taco trade” and why investors expect bad news to reverse quickly

• How options flows and dealer hedging are influencing stock prices

• Why call options are historically cheap heading into earnings

• The mechanics of gamma, delta hedging, and market maker positioning

• Why options expiration (OpEx) can act as a turning point for markets

• The divergence between oil prices and equity volatility

• What the collapse in the VIX reveals about investor positioning

• The role of zero-DTE options in reinforcing short-term market ranges

• Key resistance levels forming from call selling and what they mean for upside

Timestamps:

00:00 Why markets aren’t reacting to geopolitical chaos
04:18 The “taco trade” and shifting market expectations
07:30 How options flows influence stock market movements
11:10 Why OpEx can drive market turning points
13:05 Volatility compression and the gamma-volatility relationship
15:30 How large options positioning shapes market behavior
18:05 Why positioning has shifted toward calls
20:00 Why this OpEx may be less impactful than prior ones
22:00 Market positioning into earnings and key drivers ahead
24:10 Using gamma maps to identify support and resistance
27:00 Revisiting the JP Morgan collar trade and March lows
30:00 Correlation spikes and the oil-volatility relationship
33:00 Why oil has stopped driving equity volatility
34:30 The breakdown between oil and VIX correlation
36:00 Why volatility may reprice higher after OpEx
37:05 The oil curve and expectations for a short-term shock
39:40 One of the largest VIX collapses ever
41:00 How options positioning drove the volatility unwind
43:00 Why selling volatility has become a dominant strategy
45:00 The feedback loop between rising markets and falling volatility

For more information on SpotGamma and Brent’s work:
https://spotgamma.com

Follow Brent on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/spotgamma

This episode breaks down the growing tension beneath the surface of today’s markets, where volatility signals, options positioning, and macro risks like war and inflation are increasingly misaligned. Brent Kochuba and Jack Forehand explain why markets appear calm despite heavy hedging, and what that disconnect could mean for a potential volatility spike and downside move ahead.

Brent Kochuba on Twitter
https://twitter.com/SpotGamma

SpotGamma Website
https://spotgamma.com

Topics covered in this episode

• Why volatility looks elevated beneath the surface even as markets remain relatively calm
• The growing gap between implied volatility VIX and realized volatility and what it signals
• How options expiration OPEX can create turning points in both price and volatility
• Why current positioning is unusually put-heavy and what that means for downside risk
• The role of market makers and hedging flows in driving market moves
• How geopolitical risks like the Iran conflict are changing options behavior and hedging demand
• Why correlation is spiking and what it says about investors moving from stock picking to asset allocation
• The breakdown of traditional diversification including the 60/40 portfolio
• How credit markets and liquidity risks could amplify equity volatility
• The impact of zero DTE options and why traders are shifting to longer-duration hedges
• The significance of the JP Morgan collar trade and key levels to watch into month-end
• Why volatility spikes often follow periods of suppressed market movement
• The potential for a sharp upside rally if geopolitical risks suddenly resolve
• How options positioning can help both traders and long-term investors with timing decisions

Timestamps

00:00 Volatility premium vs low market movement disconnect
01:00 Why markets feel calm despite rising risks
05:20 Explosion in options volume and impact of Monday Wednesday Friday expirations
07:00 How market maker hedging flows drive price movements
08:40 Dynamic hedging and why options impact evolves over time
09:20 Why OPEX can trigger market turning points
10:30 VIX expiration effects and short-term volatility suppression
13:00 Negative gamma and how it amplifies market volatility
14:10 Why hedging demand remains high despite OPEX clearing
16:00 Jump risk scenario and potential VIX spike to 40
17:10 Shift from zero DTE trading to longer-term hedging
18:00 Put-heavy positioning across equities and indices
20:40 Size and significance of the current OPEX event
22:20 VIX spike dynamics around expiration
23:40 JP Morgan collar trade and key SPX levels
25:00 Why OPEX often marks short-term market lows or highs
28:30 Review of prior OPEX signals and market setup
30:00 Rising correlation and shift to asset allocation mindset
32:00 Dispersion breakdown and implications for equities
34:00 Software sector volatility and AI disruption narrative
36:30 Using options signals for better timing decisions
39:00 Correlation spike and risk-off behavior across markets
41:30 Why investors are avoiding calls and piling into puts
44:30 Cross-asset correlation breakdown and bond hedge failure
48:00 Credit market risks and spillover into equities
49:00 Extreme VIX vs realized volatility spread
50:50 Why realized volatility remains unusually low
52:30 Oil, inflation, and macro feedback loops

In this episode of The Opex Effect, Jack and Brent break down the growing impact of options markets on stocks, volatility, and sector rotation. While the major indexes appear calm, massive moves beneath the surface tell a very different story. From software stocks and AI disruption to gold, silver, bonds, and the Nasdaq, they analyze how dealer hedging flows, gamma positioning, implied volatility, and options expiration cycles may be shaping market behavior more than headlines suggest. If you want to understand why markets can feel wildly volatile yet go nowhere, and how options positioning can influence short term price action, this episode provides a deep dive into the mechanics driving today’s market environment.

Main Topics Covered

• Why the market feels like the wildest calm market of all time

• Massive single stock volatility versus muted index performance

• Software stock weakness, AI disruption, and the so called SaaS apocalypse

• The surge in options volume and the rise of zero DTE in major stocks

• How dealer hedging, delta, gamma, and volatility flows impact equities

• The historical tendency for markets to flip direction after options expiration

• Realized volatility versus intraday volatility and what is being hidden

• Beneath the surface rotation into value, small caps, energy, and defense

• Gold and silver volatility spikes and what options volume signaled at the top

• Rising demand for puts and what skew is telling us about downside risk

• Correlation spikes, VIX behavior, and the risk of a volatility expansion

• How positioning can create rapid market spasms in single stocks like Nvidia and Tesla

• Why this environment may represent a staging area for a larger move

Timestamps

00:00 Violently going nowhere and hidden volatility
01:01 The wildest calm market of all time
04:00 Introduction to The Opex Effect and options driven flows
05:29 The growth of options trading and zero DTE impact
11:00 Dealer hedging, delta, and how options move stocks
13:42 Why options expiration can trigger regime changes
16:22 Intraday volatility versus close to close volatility
20:18 Extreme rotation beneath the surface
21:00 Measuring expiration size with the lobster claw rating
25:00 Single stock positioning and March expiration risk
27:35 Core one month correlation warning signals
33:00 Rising put demand and what skew reveals
36:45 Asset rotation in bonds, gold, bitcoin, and tech
43:06 Correlation spikes and crash risk setup
46:40 The quickening of volatility and single stock spasms

In this episode, Jack Forehand is joined by Brent Kochuba from SpotGamma to break down how options market flows are increasingly shaping equity market behavior. The conversation focuses on January options expiration, the explosive growth of zero DTE options, and why short term volatility dynamics matter even for long term investors. Using recent market examples, the episode explains how dealer hedging, gamma exposure, and correlation shifts can drive rallies, reversals, and sudden corrections that often seem disconnected from fundamentals.

Topics covered
• Why options volume has surged since 2020 and how zero DTE trading changed market structure
• How dealer hedging flows influence stock prices, volatility, and intraday market moves
• The Captain Condor collapse and what it reveals about selling volatility and hidden risks
• Why options expiration can act as a catalyst for market turning points
• The relationship between implied volatility, realized volatility, and market stability
• Gamma exposure explained and how positive vs negative gamma affects price action
• Correlation trades and why low index volatility can signal growing market fragility
• What current options positioning says about risks and opportunities after January opex

Timestamps
00:00 Introduction and why options flows matter for all investors
03:00 What the show is about and how options expiration drives market behavior
06:00 The Captain Condor story and the dangers of selling volatility
15:20 Why options volume has exploded since COVID
18:45 How market makers hedge options and move underlying stocks
22:00 Why options expiration forces positioning changes
25:00 Volatility behavior before and after opex
27:45 Gamma exposure and how it predicts short term volatility
29:50 December opex review and what played out as expected
36:00 Correlation trades and warning signals for corrections
44:40 Single stock options, speculation, and market maker profits
46:30 Quadrant view of call buying, volatility, and crowd behavior
49:55 Implied vs realized volatility and why tension is building

In this episode of The Opex Effect, Jack Forehand and Brent Kochuba break down what could be the largest options expiration ever and explain why December options flows, seasonality, and volatility dynamics matter so much for markets right now. The conversation explores how AI enthusiasm, equity rotation, and record options volume are colliding into year end, and what the options market is signaling about near term risk, upside, and potential turning points. From zero DTE trading and volatility suppression to the Santa Claus rally, JP Morgan’s collar trade, and the implications for stocks, small caps, and value, this episode offers a detailed look at how derivatives are shaping market behavior beneath the surface.

Topics covered:

• Why December options expiration may be the biggest ever and why that matters

• How options market flows influence stock prices and volatility

• The role of zero DTE options in suppressing or amplifying market moves

• AI, capital cycles, and whether infrastructure builders will benefit

• Seasonality, the Santa Claus rally, and year end market dynamics

• Equity rotation versus true risk off environments

• Small caps, value stocks, and shifts away from mega cap tech

• Volatility compression, hedging flows, and what happens after expiration

• The JP Morgan collar trade and its impact on S&P 500 levels

• Key upside and downside levels to watch into year end and January

Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction and why this could be the biggest options expiration ever
02:15 AI enthusiasm, bubbles, and capital cycle risks
05:00 Why price and time both matter in trading decisions
06:45 Record options volume and the rise of zero DTE trading
09:00 How options hedging flows move the underlying market
11:20 Why December expiration can be a market turning point
13:00 Volatility trends around options expiration
14:30 Seasonality, holidays, and the Santa Claus rally
17:00 Call heavy versus put heavy expirations
19:30 Why extreme positioning can lead to reversals
21:30 Size of December expiration compared to other months
24:00 Lessons from November options expiration
27:00 Nvidia, AI leaders, and options driven price behavior
31:30 Equity rotation into small caps and value stocks
34:00 Correlation, risk off signals, and market stability
36:00 Key S&P 500 levels including 6800 and 7000
39:00 Fed uncertainty, rate cuts, and volatility outlook
41:00 JP Morgan collar trade mechanics and market pinning
44:00 Cheap upside calls and volatility suppression
48:30 Options based ETFs and income strategies
50:00 Oracle earnings, credit risk, and surprising options signals