In this episode, we welcome back Jake Oubina, Managing Director and Deputy Head of Economic Research at Piper Sandler, for a wide-ranging discussion on the macro outlook. Despite geopolitical tensions, rising oil prices, and shifting sentiment, Jake has remained anchored to a 3% real GDP growth view. Together, we explore key risks ahead, including potential tariff re-escalation, shifting immigration dynamics, and how policy decisions could shape the second half of the year. The big takeaway: beneath the noise, the macro backdrop may be more resilient and even improving faster than many expect.

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In this episode, we sit down with Emily Needell to unpack a truly remarkable start to 2026, one that may go down as one of the most eventful quarters in recent memory. What began as a near “Goldilocks” environment, with improving economic data, falling rates, and long-awaited market broadening quickly evolved into something far more complex. We explore three defining themes of the quarter: the early-year macro strength that fueled optimism around a broader market rally, the sharp unwind in mega-cap AI leaders that left many investors lagging behind despite improving breadth, and the sudden geopolitical shock from the Iran conflict that reshaped everything.

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In this episode, we shift the focus from oil headlines to the force quietly driving everything underneath: interest rates. Four weeks into the Iran conflict, markets remain locked on energy, but as Michael explains, it’s the surge in rates that’s doing the real damage. With the 10-year yield climbing, mortgage rates rising, and rate cuts rapidly priced out, financial conditions are tightening fast.

We break down the powerful link between oil and rates, why this supply-driven inflation shock is reigniting volatility. Michael also explains why tin he post-2022 regime investors are hyper-focused on inflation and rate risk. With stocks and bonds increasingly moving together, traditional diversification is breaking down.

Finally, we explore what history tells us about markets during inflation shocks, why oil spikes often precede economic slowdowns, and whether the recent resilience in economic data can last.

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In this episode, we sit down with Jan Stuart to unpack the escalating geopolitical crisis in the Middle East and why it could trigger a far broader global repricing across markets. Jan explains why the current disruption around the Strait of Hormuz is far more complex than an oil shock. While markets have largely treated the conflict as a one-variable story tied to crude prices, he argues the real risks lie deeper in global supply chains. We explore how disruptions could ripple through LNG markets, fertilizer supply, aluminum production, chemicals, and even semiconductor manufacturing, potentially creating waves of inflation across the global economy. Jan also outlines why reopening the strait may prove extremely difficult—and why the geopolitical incentives facing leaders like Donald Trump, Benjamin Netanyahu, and Iran’s leadership could make a quick resolution unlikely.

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In this episode, we discuss how the recent spike in crude has created a “one-variable market,” where leadership becomes highly binary. Despite the headlines, the broader market hasn’t fallen as much as many expected. Michael explains why investors are focusing less on the current price of oil and more on how long higher prices might last, with the oil futures curve still suggesting the spike could be temporary. Michael walks through a framework investors can use in markets like this: when a single variable dominates and positioning tends to become defensive, until that variable peaks. When it does, leadership in the market can reverse quickly, creating major opportunities for investors looking ahead to the next rotation.

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In this episode, we sit down with Danny Kirsch to unpack one of the most unusual market environments in decades. The index has traded in an exceptionally tight range, yet beneath that stability we’re seeing historic dispersion, major sector rotation, and a surge in single-stock volatility. Mega-cap leadership is fading while the equal-weight market pushes to new highs. Capital is rotating into cyclicals, industrials, materials, and energy as investors reposition for a different regime. At the same time, uncertainty around AI disruption, private credit risk, geopolitics, and policy shifts is driving a sharp increase in options activity. It may feel uncomfortable but this is the type of environment where stock pickers, sector allocators, and options traders can thrive. The index may be flat. The opportunity set is not.

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In this episode, Michael and Stephen break down one of the most confusing market environments in years. While volatility in mega-cap software and AI names has grabbed headlines, the broader market is quietly telling a very different story. With the “Mag Seven” representing over a third of the S&P 500 at the start of the year, weakness in just a handful of stocks has masked what may be one of the strongest breadth environments in decades. Michael explains why this environment looks like a classic broadening cycle for the first time in nearly five years, with improving early-cycle economic data supporting stronger earnings outside of mega-cap growth.

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This week’s episode explores a dramatic shift in market sentiment that unfolded in just a few days. Emily and Michael are joined by Jay Glickson to discuss what institutional investors are saying, how AI disruption fears are influencing positioning, and why the broader macro backdrop may still support a rotation into cyclical and value-oriented areas of the market.
Despite heightened anxiety, particularly around AI and expensive growth stocks—the overall market remains near highs. The team breaks down what’s driving the disconnect between sentiment and price action, how investors are reacting, and what could stabilize markets in the near term.

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In this Super Bowl Sunday episode, Michael and Stephen break down a volatile week in the markets that felt far worse than the major indices suggested. While mega-cap tech, software, and crypto saw sharp swings, the broader market quietly showed signs of strength, with value stocks and equal-weight indices hitting new highs.

Michael shares insights from a week of client meetings on the road and explains why the recent turbulence looks more like a healthy rotation than the start of a broader downturn. The conversation explores the shift away from crowded momentum trades and toward cyclical sectors, improving earnings trends in small- and mid-cap stocks, and why softer employment data may actually support the current economic expansion.

They also revisit the HOPE framework—Housing, Orders, Profits, and Employment—to highlight the macro signals pointing to a potential soft landing and broader market participation in 2026. The episode wraps with a discussion on valuations, expectations, and what investors should watch as leadership continues to evolve beneath the surface of the market.

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In this episode, Piper Sandler Senior Analyst Crispin Love, discusses the current trends, misconceptions, and outlook in the mortgage finance space. He explains how mortgage rates have fluctuated from 7% to 6% recently and the impact on mortgage originations and refinancing volumes. Crispin highlights the significance of the rate of change in mortgage rates over their absolute levels and examines the factors influencing purchase and refinance activity. The conversation covers key data sources such as Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association for tracking mortgage activity. Further, Crispin delves into how companies have adapted to lower profit margins in a challenging environment and the advancements in AI tools being used. The discussion also touches on home equity loans (HELOCs) and closed-end seconds and how they have become more popular as people remain locked into their homes. The episode concludes with insights into the political backdrop, including recent policies from the Trump administration aimed at stimulating housing activity and addressing affordability, and Crispin’s outlook on the industry for 2026, along with some of his favorite stock picks.

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