Consumer spending has been far more resilient than many investors expected, but the story isn't as simple as strong or weak. Peter Keith joins the podcast to explain why today's consumer is increasingly selective, how the K-shaped economy may finally be narrowing, and why certain retail categories are showing surprising strength despite ongoing housing weakness. We discuss what investors are hearing about oil prices, interest rates, the Middle East, and Federal Reserve policy, along with why many consumer-focused investors are becoming more optimistic for the second half of the year. Peter also shares where he's finding the biggest opportunities, including furniture, home-related products, and lower-income retail, while explaining why housing remains stuck waiting for lower mortgage rates. Finally, we preview earnings season, discuss the impact of tariff refunds and AI initiatives, and highlight the companies that could deliver the biggest surprises over the coming quarters.

The second quarter delivered the strongest market performance in six years, but the headlines only tell part of the story. In this episode, we step back from the day-to-day market noise to explore the bigger trends that shaped the quarter and what they could mean for investors going forward. We discuss why the rally broadened beyond the largest technology stocks, how improving manufacturing data and stronger-than-expected corporate earnings fueled gains across the market, and why the next phase of the AI trade may look very different from the last. We also examine shifting Federal Reserve expectations, the outlook for inflation, and the key indicators we'll be watching as earnings season begins. If you want to understand what really drove markets this quarter and where the opportunities and risks may lie next, this episode provides the context behind the headlines.

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The second half of the year is off to a strong start, but beneath the surface the market is changing. This week we're joined by Danny Kirsch to discuss why investors are increasingly looking beyond the AI trade and what that could mean for the next phase of the bull market. We dive into the broadening rally across the S&P 500, why semiconductor stocks have become unusually volatile, and how leveraged ETFs may be amplifying those swings. We also explore whether the Mag 7 could regain leadership as companies begin rethinking massive AI spending plans, why July has historically been one of the market's strongest months, and how options markets may be underpricing key events like CPI, the Fed, and earnings season.

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For the past few years, AI has been the market's defining story, but the conversation is beginning to evolve. In this episode, we examine why falling Treasury yields are becoming just as important as AI earnings, what the Fed may be signaling versus what the market believes, and why a broadening rally has quietly been taking shape. We also discuss how changing inflation expectations, improving economic data, and stronger earnings revisions are supporting areas of the market that have largely been overlooked, even as AI remains a powerful long-term theme.

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Inflation may be cooling faster than markets expect and the implications are big. This week, we sit down with Jake Oubina to break down why commodity shocks are fading, why core inflation is set to grind lower, and why the Fed may be done hiking for this cycle. We connect the dots from falling gas prices to improving consumer confidence, stronger job growth, and a potential tailwind for housing and rate-sensitive sectors. If this disinflation trend holds, it could mark a shift back toward a Goldilocks environment with lower rates, expanding multiples, and a much broader market rally.

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In this episode, we go deep into the mechanics of index construction with Jackson Venjohn Head Of Index Rebalancing At Piper Sandler. With hundreds of billions in forced buying and selling, the rise of passive investing has fundamentally changed how stocks trade, how liquidity forms, and how opportunities emerge. We unpack the largest rebalance cycle ever, and how blockbuster IPOs like SpaceX could reshape flows for years to come. If you want to understand what’s really moving markets beneath the surface, this is the conversation.

For full disclosure information visit: http://www.pipersandler.com/researchdisclosures

In this episode, we unpack the profound shift reshaping markets: the transition from a growth-driven framework to one dominated by interest rates and inflation anxiety. What began in late 2023 as a simple observation—that falling rates lift equities while rising rates pressure them—has evolved into a full-blown regime change with deep historical parallels. We explore why “bad news” like softer economic data can now be bullish, how decades-old correlations have flipped, and what this means for positioning across sectors. With affordability pressures, a bifurcated consumer, and a massive AI-driven earnings backdrop all in play, this conversation breaks down the signals that matter, the risks that could disrupt the trend, and why this new paradigm may be with investors for years to come.

For full disclosure information visit: http://www.pipersandler.com/researchdisclosures

Interest rates are once again the market’s main character and while headline indices sit near all-time highs, the story underneath is far less comfortable. In this episode, Michael unpacks the growing disconnect between index-level strength and deteriorating market breadth, We dig into the regime shift that’s made rates matter more than growth, the reflexive cycle between yields, economic data, and equities, and why both the worst and best market moves tend to cluster around turning points in rates. From the K-shaped economy to the constant whipsaw in Fed expectations, this conversation explores what clients are asking, what the data is actually saying, and where the biggest opportunities may be if rates finally start to ease.

For full disclosure information visit: http://www.pipersandler.com/researchdisclosures

In this episode, we’re joined by Kevin Gordon, Head of Macro Research and Strategy at Charles Schwab, to break down one of the most confusing market environments in years.

Despite geopolitical tension, rising rates, and persistent inflation concerns, markets continue to push to new highs. Kevin shares what he’s hearing from investors across the country, from retail to institutional and why the gap between how people feel about the economy and what the data says may be the defining feature of this cycle.

We dig into the idea of a “vibepression,” where sentiment remains deeply negative even as growth and employment hold up, and explore why affordability—not job loss—is today’s central economic pressure point. The conversation also tackles the growing concentration in markets, the dominance of mega-cap tech, and why investors may be overlooking opportunities beneath the surface.

Kevin explains why diversification still matters, even in a world where a handful of stocks drive index returns, and how thinking in terms of themes—not sectors—can better capture where markets are headed. We also discuss whether today’s environment resembles past bubbles, how AI is reshaping both growth and inflation, and why interest rates—not earnings—may be the biggest risk to markets from here.

Finally, Kevin shares his framework for separating “front-page risk” from what actually impacts markets, along with his outlook for the months ahead and the key signals investors should be watching.

In this episode, Emily breaks down a week where stocks hit all-time highs even as interest rates and oil prices moved higher. So what’s really going on? The answer lies beneath the surface. Despite constant headline noise and investor skepticism, the underlying story is clear; this market rally is broader, stronger, and more fundamentally driven than many realize. The big question—can it continue?

For full disclosure information visit: http://www.pipersandler.com/researchdisclosures