What's Next For Markets

This week we are joined by Danny Kirsch, head of the options desk at Piper Sandler, for a look beneath the surface of today’s resilient but increasingly narrow market. We discuss why investors have low conviction despite major moves in rates and oil, why the S&P 500 has become a less effective hedge, and what options positioning and volatility are revealing about investor sentiment. Danny also explore the narrowing AI trade, risks emerging in regional and European banks, the potential impact of the midterm elections, and where opportunities and vulnerabilities may be hiding as the market searches for its next catalyst.

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In this episode, Michael and Stephen dig into one of the biggest questions facing markets: how much of the current economic and earnings strength is actually being driven by AI? Using company-level data built from thousands of earnings-call transcripts, they examine AI adoption, the companies benefiting from the AI build-out, and how many are actually seeing measurable improvements in margins and fundamentals. They also explore why the broader earnings recovery extends well beyond AI, what the data says about employment, and where pricing power and inflation pressures are showing up across sectors and industries.

For full disclosure information visit: http://www.pipersandler.com/researchdisclosures

The third quarter is nearly in the books, and in this episode we take a look at what could drive markets through the final months of the year. With earnings expectations remaining strong, the focus is increasingly shifting toward market multiples and the forces behind them, particularly interest rates, oil prices and expectations for Fed policy. Michael explains why a market that has become mathematically cheaper isn't necessarily more attractively valued, and why the outlook for oil and rates could be the biggest swing factor for stocks into year-end. They also discuss the fading potential for further multiple expansion among the mega-cap AI names and why investors may want to increasingly focus on profitable companies with strong earnings momentum as the economy moves toward 2027.

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Interest rates have been one of the biggest market stories of 2026, but what is really driving them higher? Kurt Lewis of Piper Sandler joins the podcast to break down the outlook for the Fed, inflation, real rates and the term premium. We discuss why the 10-year Treasury may have a hard time returning to 4%, whether deficits are actually driving rates higher, how oil and supply shocks have changed the bond market, and why a higher neutral rate could mean a very different interest-rate environment going forward. We also discuss the Fed’s dot plot and whether it has become more trouble than it’s worth.

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Anna Andreeva joins us to break down what’s really happening beneath the surface of today’s consumer. While the consumer remains resilient, Anna describes them as increasingly “finicky” and selective, forcing brands to compete on innovation, differentiation and scarcity. We discuss the growing bifurcation in consumer spending, why experiences and beauty continue to outperform, which brands are successfully maintaining pricing power, and how tariffs are reshaping the industry. Anna also shares her views on the winners and losers across footwear, apparel and beauty, including who are the most exciting brands in the space right now.

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Don Schneider joins us to break down Treasury’s surprise buyback announcement and what it signals about the bond market, long-term rates and the government’s broader issuance strategy. We also discuss the persistent U.S. deficit, whether the economy can actually grow its way out of the debt burden, the outlook for tariffs and the market-moving policy decisions that could emerge between now and the midterm elections. Don also weighs in on the growing political risks surrounding AI, data centers and the massive infrastructure buildout behind the AI boom.

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Alex Goldfarb joins us to explain why a lack of new real estate supply could create a powerful opportunity for REIT investors. We discuss the rebound in office, industrial and retail, how AI is driving unexpected demand for space, and why construction costs are keeping new supply constrained. Alex also explains why he is even more bullish on real estate than he was a year ago and where he sees the biggest opportunities over the next several years.

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This week, we break down the three biggest themes driving today's market: accelerating economic data, exceptional corporate earnings, and the broadening of market leadership. We discuss why manufacturing PMIs continue to surprise to the upside, what another outstanding earnings season says about the strength of corporate America, and why the market's leadership is rotating from high-beta growth stocks toward value and quality cyclicals. We also explore how a softer-than-expected jobs report could give the Federal Reserve more flexibility, why new all-time highs in financials and industrials matter, and what these trends suggest about the outlook for equities through the rest of the year and into 2027. If you're trying to understand what's really driving markets—and where opportunities may lie as this bull market matures—this episode connects the dots between the data, earnings, and investor positioning.

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EV adoption is entering a new phase as higher gasoline prices, robotaxis, artificial intelligence, and global competition reshape the automotive industry. We sit down with Piper Sandler's Alex Potter to discuss why Chinese automakers continue gaining market share, how Tesla's vertically integrated business model is changing the rules of manufacturing, and why autonomous driving may become one of the biggest technological disruptions of the next decade. We also explore SpaceX's long-term ambitions, the future of robotics, how self-driving vehicles could transform insurance and car ownership, and why investors should think beyond traditional auto companies when evaluating the next wave of innovation.

For full disclosure information visit: http://www.pipersandler.com/researchdisclosures

Enterprise software has been one of the market's biggest losers, but are investors overreacting to AI fears? Piper Sandler's Billy Fitzsimmons joins us to break down whether AI is truly disrupting the software business model, why valuations have collapsed, where opportunities still exist, and how Microsoft, Oracle, and the hyperscalers fit into the next phase of the AI investment cycle. We also discuss vibe coding, consumption-based pricing, AI infrastructure spending, and why the eventual IPOs of OpenAI and Anthropic could reshape the entire software landscape.

For full disclosure information visit: http://www.pipersandler.com/researchdisclosures