* Janet Yellen was up on the Hill today for the first of her two-day testimony before Congress

* Remember I said the only way that Janet Yellen could stop the market from falling is to admit that the Fed will alter its 4-rate-hike trajectory for 2016, and she didn't do that

* As a result, the stock market failed to sustain its early morning gains; the Dow was up better than 100 points - closed near the low of the day down 99.64

* The NASDAQ, which was up not quite 100 points earlier in the day closed on the low of the day, up only about 14 points on the day

* It was the opposite for gold; gold was actually down this morning before Yellen spoke, down around 1180-ish on the lows; we closed up $8 on the high of the day - $1197 - knocking on the door of $1200

* The gold stocks were clobbered this morning and they closed positive; the gold index was up about 2-2-1/2% - it was down 4% earlier when gold was down but by the stock market opened gold wasn't down $8 anymore, it was down about $2 or $3, yet gold stocks were clobbered

* Maybe it's still the overhang from Goldman Sachs coming out yesterday and predicting that gold would fall below $1000/oz in 2016

* That probably means that Goldman Sachs is short a bunch of gold and they want to cover, or they just need to buy and they're trying to convince the muppets who actually pay attention to what they say, to sell their gold to them

* Janet Yellen continued with the narrative that everything is O.K. - the economy is fine, the recovery is on track, yes, she acknowledged some headwinds: growth was a little bit slower at the end of last year, but no big deal

* There are some problems overseas that they're monitoring , there are some financial tightening: overseas markets are weak, domestic markets are weak, yes the Fed is paying attention to all that

* But so far, from their perspective, everything is on track, the recovery is moving along, the labor market is strong, despite the fact that there is no improvement in labor force participation, there's no improvement in the part-time workers who want full-time work, there's no real wage growth other than the bump from the minimum wage hike

* But despite all that, Janet Yellen still maintains that everything looks good, that we will overcome these headwinds - this is her most likely scenario

* She did acknowledge that monetary policy is not fixed, that the trajectory is not set in stone, that the Fed will monitor incoming data, and if the data evolves in a manner they don't expect, then yes, they might not raise interest rates as much as they believe they're going to raise them

* As far as the Fed is concerned, based on the data they have now, their most likely scenario is that everything is fine, which means the market is going to keep falling

* It's almost ironic that Yellen would say, "The markets are weak, and if they stay weak then we might have to adjust our monetary policy" - that means the markets are going to stay weak!

* The only way to stop the markets from falling is for the markets to know that rates aren't going up

* I think it's more than just the absence of rate hikes: this market needs more QE

* The Fed dialed back the dosage and the market requires it now, or it will start going down

* I was watching a great interview with Jim Grant today on CNBC and he was saying all the things I am saying: he says we're already in a recession; he's confident that it began at the end of last year and he thinks the Fed is going to go back to zero and do more QE, and that they might go negative

* Janet Yellen was asked about negative rates in her testimony, apparently the Fed had considered it back in 2010 and they rejected it and she was asked if negative interest rates are even legal

* Yellen said to her knowledge there is nothing legally preventing the Fed from going ...

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Janet Yellen was up on the Hill today for the first of her two-day testimony before Congress

Remember I said the only way that Janet Yellen could stop the market from falling is to admit that the Fed will alter its 4-rate-hike trajectory for 2016, and she didn't do that

As a result, the stock market failed to sustain its early morning gains; the Dow was up better than 100 points - closed near the low of the day down 99.64

The NASDAQ, which was up not quite 100 points earlier in the day closed on the low of the day, up only about 14 points on the day

It was the opposite for gold; gold was actually down this morning before Yellen spoke, down around 1180-ish on the lows; we closed up $8 on the high of the day - $1197 - knocking on the door of $1200

The gold stocks were clobbered this morning and they closed positive; the gold index was up about 2-2-1/2% - it was down 4% earlier when gold was down but by the stock market opened gold wasn't down $8 anymore, it was down about $2 or $3, yet gold stocks were clobbered

Maybe it's still the overhang from Goldman Sachs coming out yesterday and predicting that gold would fall below $1000/oz in 2016

That probably means that Goldman Sachs is short a bunch of gold and they want to cover, or they just need to buy and they're trying to convince the muppets who actually pay attention to what they say, to sell their gold to them

Janet Yellen continued with the narrative that everything is O.K. - the economy is fine, the recovery is on track, yes, she acknowledged some headwinds: growth was a little bit slower at the end of last year, but no big deal

There are some problems overseas that they're monitoring , there are some financial tightening: overseas markets are weak, domestic markets are weak, yes the Fed is paying attention to all that

But so far, from their perspective, everything is on track, the recovery is moving along, the labor market is strong, despite the fact that there is no improvement in labor force participation, there's no improvement in the part-time workers who want full-time work, there's no real wage growth other than the bump from the minimum wage hike

But despite all that, Janet Yellen still maintains that everything looks good, that we will overcome these headwinds - this is her most likely scenario

She did acknowledge that monetary policy is not fixed, that the trajectory is not set in stone, that the Fed will monitor incoming data, and if the data evolves in a manner they don't expect, then yes, they might not raise interest rates as much as they believe they're going to raise them

As far as the Fed is concerned, based on the data they have now, their most likely scenario is that everything is fine, which means the market is going to keep falling

It's almost ironic that Yellen would say, "The markets are weak, and if they stay weak then we might have to adjust our monetary policy" - that means the markets are going to stay weak!

The only way to stop the markets from falling is for the markets to know that rates aren't going up

I think it's more than just the absence of rate hikes: this market needs more QE

The Fed dialed back the dosage and the market requires it now, or it will start going down

I was watching a great interview with Jim Grant today on CNBC and he was saying all the things I am saying: he says we're already in a recession; he's confident that it began at the end of last year and he thinks the Fed is going to go back to zero and do more QE, and that they might go negative

Janet Yellen was asked about negative rates in her testimony, apparently the Fed had considered it back in 2010 and they rejected it and she was asked if negative interest rates are even legal

Yellen said to her knowledge there is nothing legally preventing the Fed from going to negative rates

But, of course, the fact that the Fed is considering it and talking about it means that they are going to do it

If they weren't going to do it,

* It was another volatile day in the U.S. stock market, with the Dow swinging from positive to negative to positive to finally closing negative, but well off the lows and the highs of the day

* The NASDAQ was only down about 15; the Dow down about 12 points

* The real action was in the currency markets: the dollar got clobbered today, a new 4-month low in the euro, 2-year low in the yen, the Swiss franc was probably the strongest currency on the day

* The dollar index actually traded in the 95 handle before recovering slightly back up above 967

* Gold, several times flirted with $1200 again, couldn't quite make it there; the highest I saw it was $1198, it didn't touch $1200

* The gold stocks got hammered - they were down about 4% today, I guess the fact that gold could not break through to $1200 caused people to sell gold stocks, even though there was very little selling in gold itself

* What I want to discuss on today's podcast is my appearance on CNBC's web program, "Futures Now"

* My appearance was promoted on television, although this appearance was actually on CNBC.com

* They like to have me on, because I am good for their ratings online

* The YouTube video of my appearance is posted on my Facebook page

* Go back and look at my last several appearances on Futures Now with Scott Nations, who constantly wants to remind everybody how wrong I am about everything

* They have to admit that I was right about several things

* When I was on their show the day after the rate hike and also several times before the rate hike

* I said I did not think the Fed could raise rates because it would push the economy into recession, cause a bear market in stocks - basically prick the bubble

* I did not think the Fed would be willing to put themselves in the difficult position of having to reverse the rate cut and lose credibility

* Up until December, I was right.  But even I had started to admit that the Fed might do such a thing by the time they actually did it

* Look at what's happened.  It's been a blood bath since they've raised rates

* Look at what's happening in the financials - they've lost half their value

* Look at gold: I said if the Fed raised rates, Gold would go up- it went up from $1050/oz. the day after they raised rates to $1200

* I said if the Fed raised rates, the dollar would go down and now it's at a 4-month low - Gold's at a 7-month high

* Dollar going down, gold going up, stocks getting crushed that's exactly what I said

* You'd think they would at least acknowledge that I got something right

* But then, you'd be wrong

* Host Jackie DeAngelis' introduced me by saying, "Peter Schiff claims he got everything right!"

* They are implying that they disagree that I was right about the consequences of the rate hike

* In the article on the interview, they misquoted me by saying that I claimed to get everything right.

* I did refer back to my published quotes, which clearly state that I thought the market and the dollar would tank and gold would go up if the Fed actually raised rates.

* Scott Nations said, "I don't know if Peter Schiff got anything right"

* All the forecasts on "Futures Now" I made the day after the Fed raised rates were correct and Scott Nations got everything wrong

* The very first thing the host said to me on my interview was that I was wrong, in that I said it was impossible for the Fed to raise rates

* I did not say that.  I said it would be impossible for the Fed to raise rates without causing the stock market to go down,

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It was another volatile day in the U.S. stock market, with the Dow swinging from positive to negative to positive to finally closing negative, but well off the lows and the highs of the day

The NASDAQ was only down about 15; the Dow down about 12 points

The real action was in the currency markets: the dollar got clobbered today, a new 4-month low in the euro, 2-year low in the yen, the Swiss franc was probably the strongest currency on the day

The dollar index actually traded in the 95 handle before recovering slightly back up above 967

Gold, several times flirted with $1200 again, couldn't quite make it there; the highest I saw it was $1198, it didn't touch $1200

The gold stocks got hammered - they were down about 4% today, I guess the fact that gold could not break through to $1200 caused people to sell gold stocks, even though there was very little selling in gold itself

What I want to discuss on today's podcast is my appearance on CNBC's web program, "Futures Now"

My appearance was promoted on television, although this appearance was actually on CNBC.com

They like to have me on, because I am good for their ratings online

The YouTube video of my appearance is posted on my Facebook page

Go back and look at my last several appearances on Futures Now with Scott Nations, who constantly wants to remind everybody how wrong I am about everything

They have to admit that I was right about several things

When I was on their show the day after the rate hike and also several times before the rate hike

I said I did not think the Fed could raise rates because it would push the economy into recession, cause a bear market in stocks - basically prick the bubble

I did not think the Fed would be willing to put themselves in the difficult position of having to reverse the rate cut and lose credibility

Up until December, I was right.  But even I had started to admit that the Fed might do such a thing by the time they actually did it

Look at what's happened.  It's been a blood bath since they've raised rates

Look at what's happening in the financials - they've lost half their value

Look at gold: I said if the Fed raised rates, Gold would go up- it went up from $1050/oz. the day after they raised rates to $1200

I said if the Fed raised rates, the dollar would go down and now it's at a 4-month low - Gold's at a 7-month high

Dollar going down, gold going up, stocks getting crushed that's exactly what I said

You'd think they would at least acknowledge that I got something right

But then, you'd be wrong

Host Jackie DeAngelis' introduced me by saying, "Peter Schiff claims he got everything right!"

They are implying that they disagree that I was right about the consequences of the rate hike

In the article on the interview, they misquoted me by saying that I claimed to get everything right.

I did refer back to my published quotes, which clearly state that I thought the market and the dollar would tank and gold would go up if the Fed actually raised rates.

Scott Nations said, "I don't know if Peter Schiff got anything right"

All the forecasts on "Futures Now" I made the day after the Fed raised rates were correct and Scott Nations got everything wrong

The very first thing the host said to me on my interview was that I was wrong, in that I said it was impossible for the Fed to raise rates

I did not say that.  I said it would be impossible for the Fed to raise rates without causing the stock market to go down, the dollar to go down and gold to go up.  I thought the Fed would have been too smart to risk their credibility on such a move.  I was wrong about the fact that the Fed was too smart to risk their own credibility by hastening recession

So they did raise rates, and everything that I said would happen has happened

That's what I got right.

By a week or two before the meeting, I had actually acknowledged that they probably would raise rates,

* As I mentioned in my video blog I recorded on Friday,  the jobs data that came out on Friday was just not weak enough for the market

* So the markets' carnage continues, because everybody still believes the Federal Reserve may in fact be raising interest rates - the only question is, will it be in March, will it be in June, the markets don't know and so they continue to be under pressure

* At one point today, the Dow Jones was down nearly 400 points

* The NASDAQ was down about another 150 intra-day

* We had one of these last hour rallies, just to keep hope alive so the Dow closed down just 177 points, the NASDAQ down 79

* At the lows today, we were within 1% of a bear market, in the NASDAQ, so technically Wall Street can pretend they are not in a bear market, maybe for a few more days

* The same thing is going to happen with the recession - everybody is saying there is no recession, but eventually they will have to admit it

* I was reading an article by an economist from one of the bigger banks, who said, there will be some more downside, maybe the NASDAQ will go down to  about 3900

* But, he said, "Don't worry, it's not going to be as bad as 2000 or 2008 because the economy is in good shape and the odds of a recession are very slim."

* What would make him think the odds of a recession are slim? All the data is horrible.

* Manufacturing is already in a recession; the service sector is contracting rapidly

* It has been seven years since the last recession so we're overdue…

* The Fed is tightening, raising interest rates, as a matter of fact they've been tightening for 2 years if you understand that the "Taper Talk" was the beginning of the tightening

* Plus, we're in a bear market

* We often hear, "The market has predicted 10 of the last 5 recessions"

* OK, well, the Fed has predicted zero of the last 5 recessions

* They always say there's not going to be a recession right before there's a recession, in fact, they have a history of saying there won't be a recession when we're already in a recession

* What led the carnage in the stock market was the sell-off in European banks and it was brutal, in fact these big banks are lower than their lows in the depth of the Financial Crisis

* The big one is Deutsche Bank had to come out today and re assure everybody that they did not have a solvency problem

* All the U.S. stocks hit 52-week lows: Morgan Stanley hit a 52-week low, Goldman Sachs down 4-1/2% - 52-week low, Bank of America down 5-1/4% -  52-week low

* These stocks will continue to suffer until the Fed cries Uncle, or Aunt

* The ECB can't do it, the Bank of Japan can't do it - negative rates are actually making it worse for the European banks

* There is no more stimulus coming from Europe because the stimulus is causing a bigger problem than it is supposed to cure

* I've said this many times: bankers in Europe were worried about, "Lowflation" as they see weak oil prices, so now they want to stimulate

* But whenever they stimulate, they cause the dollar to strengthen and the stronger dollar further suppresses the commodity prices, threatening more "Lowflation"

* The Bank of Japan can't do anything, in fact the yen was up again today a new 52-week high for the Japanese yen, so even though Japan has gone negative the yen is rising not just to a 52-week high, this is the highest it has been since October of 2014

* In Europe they are making the situation worse by easing

* Who's left? Janet Yellen will speak to Congress Wednesday and Thursday this week and maybe she'll throw the market a lifesaver this time instead of an anchor

* This is exactly what I have been saying would happen - the Fed would prick its own bubble with just a tiny .25 hole and the air has come gushing out

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As I mentioned in my video blog I recorded on Friday,  the jobs data that came out on Friday was just not weak enough for the market

So the markets' carnage continues, because everybody still believes the Federal Reserve may in fact be raising interest rates - the only question is, will it be in March, will it be in June, the markets don't know and so they continue to be under pressure

At one point today, the Dow Jones was down nearly 400 points

The NASDAQ was down about another 150 intra-day

We had one of these last hour rallies, just to keep hope alive so the Dow closed down just 177 points, the NASDAQ down 79

At the lows today, we were within 1% of a bear market, in the NASDAQ, so technically Wall Street can pretend they are not in a bear market, maybe for a few more days

The same thing is going to happen with the recession - everybody is saying there is no recession, but eventually they will have to admit it

I was reading an article by an economist from one of the bigger banks, who said, there will be some more downside, maybe the NASDAQ will go down to  about 3900

But, he said, "Don't worry, it's not going to be as bad as 2000 or 2008 because the economy is in good shape and the odds of a recession are very slim."

What would make him think the odds of a recession are slim? All the data is horrible.

Manufacturing is already in a recession; the service sector is contracting rapidly

It has been seven years since the last recession so we're overdue…

The Fed is tightening, raising interest rates, as a matter of fact they've been tightening for 2 years if you understand that the "Taper Talk" was the beginning of the tightening

Plus, we're in a bear market

We often hear, "The market has predicted 10 of the last 5 recessions"

OK, well, the Fed has predicted zero of the last 5 recessions

They always say there's not going to be a recession right before there's a recession, in fact, they have a history of saying there won't be a recession when we're already in a recession

What led the carnage in the stock market was the sell-off in European banks and it was brutal, in fact these big banks are lower than their lows in the depth of the Financial Crisis

The big one is Deutsche Bank had to come out today and re assure everybody that they did not have a solvency problem

All the U.S. stocks hit 52-week lows: Morgan Stanley hit a 52-week low, Goldman Sachs down 4-1/2% - 52-week low, Bank of America down 5-1/4% -  52-week low

These stocks will continue to suffer until the Fed cries Uncle, or Aunt

The ECB can't do it, the Bank of Japan can't do it - negative rates are actually making it worse for the European banks

There is no more stimulus coming from Europe because the stimulus is causing a bigger problem than it is supposed to cure

I've said this many times: bankers in Europe were worried about, "Lowflation" as they see weak oil prices, so now they want to stimulate

But whenever they stimulate, they cause the dollar to strengthen and the stronger dollar further suppresses the commodity prices, threatening more "Lowflation"

The Bank of Japan can't do anything, in fact the yen was up again today a new 52-week high for the Japanese yen, so even though Japan has gone negative the yen is rising not just to a 52-week high, this is the highest it has been since October of 2014

In Europe they are making the situation worse by easing

Who's left? Janet Yellen will speak to Congress Wednesday and Thursday this week and maybe she'll throw the market a lifesaver this time instead of an anchor

This is exactly what I have been saying would happen - the Fed would prick its own bubble with just a tiny .25 hole and the air has come gushing out

It is the opposite in gold.  Gold actually traded up to $1200/oz today before closing today above $1190 - up $18 on the day

A number of gold stocks were up 15-20% interday on their highs; they surrendered some of their highs by the close,

* It really was a brutal week on Wall Street, led by the tech-heavy NASDAQ, which is down about 5-1/2% on the week; 3% of that alone came today, now down about 17% from its high

* Not officially in a bear market yet, but getting there

* The vast majority of NASDAQ stocks are in bear markets, in fact, many of those stocks are down 40 or 50% or more - a number of those stocks down 40 or 50% today alone

* The Russell 2000 is already in a bear market; it's down 24%

* Dow Transports also down 25%, and transports were actually up this week

* The S&P and the Dow are only down about 12% - in correction but not quite a bear market, but remember, all bear markets begin as corrections, and I think this is just the early stage of a bear market

* You can contrast that with what's going on with gold; gold was up 5% on the week.  It added $18 today alone to close above 1170, in fact the price of gold has risen by $120/ounce since the Federal Reserve raised interest rates in December

* The dollar also had a bad week, despite rising somewhat today on the jobs numbers, the dollar index had its worst weekly decline since 2009

* So now, the opposite of what everybody expected has happened

* Everybody thought the stock market would go up, because the rate hike was proof that the economy was stronger; instead the stock market has tanked, in fact the beginning of January was Wall Street's  worst start to the year in history

* In contrast, the expectation was that rising interest rates would help the dollar; instead the dollar has actually declined

* Higher interest rates were expected to be bearish for gold; instead it was the catalyst for a huge rally in the price of gold

* The weaker than expected jobs report was assumed to be the reason for today's stock market carnage, because we only created 151,000 non-farm payroll jobs and the Street was looking for 188,000 jobs

* The reality is not that the report was weak, it is that it was not weak enough

* The only thing that could have saved this market would have been a horrible jobs report - a jobs report so bad that an interest rate hike would be clearly off the table

* Instead, this jobs report could indicate that the Fed is more likely to raise rates as a result of the numbers

* That is why the market went down

* No one wants to admit that the only thing holding up this market is the Fed, so they pretend that the market is disappointed by the weakness of the report

* Jobs have nothing to do with it - this market has always been about one thing - the Fed and cheap money

* Now it hangs on weather the Fed will raise rates again

* I believe the next thing the Fed is going to do is to cut interest rates

* I think they might even go negative and they going to launch QE4

* The markets have not figured this out yet

* Even the Atlanta Fed, whose first estimate of Q1 GDP at just 1.2% (I think this is an over-estimation; I think the Q4 .7% will be downwardly revised) saw this apparently strong jobs report they increased their Q1 GDP estimate by a full percentage point to 2.2%

* If the Atlanta Fed thought the jobs report was so strong, why are the reporters assigning blame to the jobs report for the sell-off

* If you look beneath the headline number of the miss, on the number of non-farm payrolls, you'll find out what the markets were so worried about:

* 1) The official unemployment rate moved down to 4.9% - that's the first time we've had a 4 handle on the unemployment rate since Obama has been President

* In fact, he did not waste much time calling a press conference proclaiming the success of his administration and declaring that the U.S. economy is the strongest in the world; quite ironic because I thin we are already in recession

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It really was a brutal week on Wall Street, led by the tech-heavy NASDAQ, which is down about 5-1/2% on the week; 3% of that alone came today, now down about 17% from its high

Not officially in a bear market yet, but getting there

The vast majority of NASDAQ stocks are in bear markets, in fact, many of those stocks are down 40 or 50% or more - a number of those stocks down 40 or 50% today alone

The Russell 2000 is already in a bear market; it's down 24%

Dow Transports also down 25%, and transports were actually up this week

The S&P and the Dow are only down about 12% - in correction but not quite a bear market, but remember, all bear markets begin as corrections, and I think this is just the early stage of a bear market

You can contrast that with what's going on with gold; gold was up 5% on the week.  It added $18 today alone to close above 1170, in fact the price of gold has risen by $120/ounce since the Federal Reserve raised interest rates in December

The dollar also had a bad week, despite rising somewhat today on the jobs numbers, the dollar index had its worst weekly decline since 2009

So now, the opposite of what everybody expected has happened

Everybody thought the stock market would go up, because the rate hike was proof that the economy was stronger; instead the stock market has tanked, in fact the beginning of January was Wall Street's  worst start to the year in history

In contrast, the expectation was that rising interest rates would help the dollar; instead the dollar has actually declined

Higher interest rates were expected to be bearish for gold; instead it was the catalyst for a huge rally in the price of gold

The weaker than expected jobs report was assumed to be the reason for today's stock market carnage, because we only created 151,000 non-farm payroll jobs and the Street was looking for 188,000 jobs

The reality is not that the report was weak, it is that it was not weak enough

The only thing that could have saved this market would have been a horrible jobs report - a jobs report so bad that an interest rate hike would be clearly off the table

Instead, this jobs report could indicate that the Fed is more likely to raise rates as a result of the numbers

That is why the market went down

No one wants to admit that the only thing holding up this market is the Fed, so they pretend that the market is disappointed by the weakness of the report

Jobs have nothing to do with it - this market has always been about one thing - the Fed and cheap money

Now it hangs on weather the Fed will raise rates again

I believe the next thing the Fed is going to do is to cut interest rates

I think they might even go negative and they going to launch QE4

The markets have not figured this out yet

Even the Atlanta Fed, whose first estimate of Q1 GDP at just 1.2% (I think this is an over-estimation; I think the Q4 .7% will be downwardly revised) saw this apparently strong jobs report they increased their Q1 GDP estimate by a full percentage point to 2.2%

If the Atlanta Fed thought the jobs report was so strong, why are the reporters assigning blame to the jobs report for the sell-off

If you look beneath the headline number of the miss, on the number of non-farm payrolls, you'll find out what the markets were so worried about:

1) The official unemployment rate moved down to 4.9% - that's the first time we've had a 4 handle on the unemployment rate since Obama has been President

In fact, he did not waste much time calling a press conference proclaiming the success of his administration and declaring that the U.S. economy is the strongest in the world; quite ironic because I thin we are already in recession

The President also took credit for the fact that average hourly earnings rose

This was the nail in the stock market's coffin today: Wages were expected to rise by .3% and instead they rose by .5% - Two tenths was enough to clobber the stock market

* So far the month of February is just 4 trading days old, and already the U.S. dollar index is down just over 3 percent

* We closed January at 99.6 and we closed at 96.5

* Gold, going the other way, now up about $13 today, closing above $1,155; the price of gold is up almost 3.5% in the first 4 days of February

* That shows you that most of the move in gold is the result of the dollar going down

* This move is just getting started

* The markets are just beginning to price in the fact that the Fed is not going to raise rates in March

* They are pricing 3, rather than 4 rate hikes this year, and that's the only thing that is not driving the markets

* A more realistic look what the Fed is likely to do is to not raise rates, but cut them below zero

* Despite that we're seing all this momentum in the dollar and in gold

* Gold stocks are just soaring, many of these names have been up 5-10% each day in February

* None of this is attracting the attention of Wall Street

* A guest on CNBC today alluded to short covering as the reason for gold going up

* He commented on how lousy the fundamentals are for these stocks

* The fundamentals have never been lousy

* They have appeared lousy because there was so much belief that the dollar would continue to rise because the U.S. is having a genuine recovery and the Fed will continue to raise rates

* The media and Wall Street are still very biased; I was on CNBC Asia last night debating an American guest who touted the strength of the economy based on the strong jobs market, how household balance sheets are better than ever and real incomes are rising

* The only reason homeowners have better balance sheets is because they no longer have a house; home ownership is at a 50 year low

* While gas prices are lower, rents, healthcare and most other costs are going up

* It was an example of how the public ignores all the bad economic news and assumes that the economy is great

* Another writer for CNBC.com attributes gold's rise to low inflation

* He actually said that my explanation about the economy slowing with inflation did not make sense, because in his mind, high inflation is a result of a strong economy

* This is exactly backwards. Strong, productive economies keep prices low

* Weak economies that lack production end up having higher prices, and those weak economies produce budget deficits and the central banks have to print money, causing inflation

* The actual definition of inflation is an expansion of the money supply; higher prices are a result of the fact that the currency then buys less

* The government wants people to be confused about inflation and where it comes from because they are the source of the problem

* By blurring the meaning of inflation, it is easier to shift the blame for economic problems on everything else but monetary policy

* CNBC highlighted my call on gold, but omitted all the correct calls I have made, especially 3 recent market predictions:

* One: if the Fed raises rates, the stock market is going to tank

* Why did I say that the market was going to tank? The conventional wisdom that if the Fed is raising rates, the economy must be stronger - I said if the Fed raises rates it will be doing it into a weak economy. In fact, it probably happened in a recession

* Two: I said that there is no historical precedence for this monetary policy because we have been at zero interest rates for 7 years, so the effect of higher rates on the economy appears to have more effect because they have been talking about tightening for years

* I also said that if the Fed raised rates, gold prices would rise; it was unanimous that gold would collapse.  Gold is up more than $100 since the initial knee-jerk sellof
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So far the month of February is just 4 trading days old, and already the U.S. dollar index is down just over 3 percent

We closed January at 99.6 and we closed at 96.5

Gold, going the other way, now up about $13 today, closing above $1,155; the price of gold is up almost 3.5% in the first 4 days of February

That shows you that most of the move in gold is the result of the dollar going down

This move is just getting started

The markets are just beginning to price in the fact that the Fed is not going to raise rates in March

They are pricing 3, rather than 4 rate hikes this year, and that's the only thing that is not driving the markets

A more realistic look what the Fed is likely to do is to not raise rates, but cut them below zero

Despite that we're seing all this momentum in the dollar and in gold

Gold stocks are just soaring, many of these names have been up 5-10% each day in February

None of this is attracting the attention of Wall Street

A guest on CNBC today alluded to short covering as the reason for gold going up

He commented on how lousy the fundamentals are for these stocks

The fundamentals have never been lousy

They have appeared lousy because there was so much belief that the dollar would continue to rise because the U.S. is having a genuine recovery and the Fed will continue to raise rates

The media and Wall Street are still very biased; I was on CNBC Asia last night debating an American guest who touted the strength of the economy based on the strong jobs market, how household balance sheets are better than ever and real incomes are rising

The only reason homeowners have better balance sheets is because they no longer have a house; home ownership is at a 50 year low

While gas prices are lower, rents, healthcare and most other costs are going up

It was an example of how the public ignores all the bad economic news and assumes that the economy is great

Another writer for CNBC.com attributes gold's rise to low inflation

He actually said that my explanation about the economy slowing with inflation did not make sense, because in his mind, high inflation is a result of a strong economy

This is exactly backwards. Strong, productive economies keep prices low

Weak economies that lack production end up having higher prices, and those weak economies produce budget deficits and the central banks have to print money, causing inflation

The actual definition of inflation is an expansion of the money supply; higher prices are a result of the fact that the currency then buys less

The government wants people to be confused about inflation and where it comes from because they are the source of the problem

By blurring the meaning of inflation, it is easier to shift the blame for economic problems on everything else but monetary policy

CNBC highlighted my call on gold, but omitted all the correct calls I have made, especially 3 recent market predictions:

One: if the Fed raises rates, the stock market is going to tank

Why did I say that the market was going to tank? The conventional wisdom that if the Fed is raising rates, the economy must be stronger - I said if the Fed raises rates it will be doing it into a weak economy. In fact, it probably happened in a recession

Two: I said that there is no historical precedence for this monetary policy because we have been at zero interest rates for 7 years, so the effect of higher rates on the economy appears to have more effect because they have been talking about tightening for years

I also said that if the Fed raised rates, gold prices would rise; it was unanimous that gold would collapse.  Gold is up more than $100 since the initial knee-jerk sellof

Remember that I recorded a video blog where I specifically said, if the Fed raises rates, and there's a knee-jerk reaction sending gold lower, that will be a great buying opportunity and that was the exact low

My third prediction is that the dollar would go down,