The Peter Schiff Show Podcast

* The rally in the U.S. stock market continues, the Dow closing up more than 212 right at the high of the day

* It's not just the Dow Jones that is rising, and by the way, this is the highest the Dow Jones has closed since early January, so it's better than a one month high

* Oil prices closed above $33/barrel for West Texas, again that's the highest level since early January

* The dollar is weak across the board, in fact the Canadian dollar hit a 3-month high today against the U.S. dollar - this currency has really been beaten up until recently

* Gold, higher again today, up about 4 or 5 bucks, it closed above $1232

* What is behind the rally? I think it is the deluge of bad economic news that keeps raining down on this market

* I believe more and more people are beginning to realize that the Fed is not only not going to be raising interest rates in 2016, but they will cut them, and do another round of economic stimulus and that's is what is saving the market

* The question is, with the Fed actually validate those expectations?

* Even Jim Cramer of CNBC can see there's a recession

* I just put up an article on my Facebook page yesterday, Cramer is saying the Fed is blind and can't see the recession

* Maybe Cramer has been listening to my podcasts...

* Do you remember the famous interview with Jim Cramer and Erin Burnett that went viral and he went on a rant about the Fed, "They know nothing!"

* You've got Cramer calling out the Fed for not appreciating the weakness in the economy and calling on them to do something

* I think they are going to do something, they're not just going to turn a deaf ear to the economy

* But the Fed is still officially sticking to the party line

* Today I wanted to talk about the CNBC interview with Jim Bullard

* First, he told Matt Belvedere he was concerned that "inflation expectations" were too low

* Of all the things you're going to worry about as a central banker, you're going to worry about the fact that people don't expect enough inflation?

* Historically that would be a victory - that's what you want as a central banker

* You want to stamp out the fear of inflation

* What Bullard wants is more fear - he wants people to expect even higher inflation than they currently experience

* Why would he want that?

* Supposedly the lack of belief that inflation is going to be higher is somehow holding back the economy

* Bullard believes inflation is going to be higher; why is he upset that the public doesn't believe it, too? Why?

* How does the expectation of higher inflation help an economy?

* The only thing that's good about inflation is if you're a debtor; if you borrowed money, inflation will help ease the pain of that debt

* You would figure the last thing the Fed would want is for people to expect higher inflation, because what would happen to bond holders?

* Bond holders would not want to hold bonds at low rates; they would demand higher interest on those bonds, which would crush the government because they don't have the money

* It would also crush the Fed, because the Fed's balance sheet is loaded up with long-term government bonds that yi...

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The rally in the U.S. stock market continues, the Dow closing up more than 212 right at the high of the day

It's not just the Dow Jones that is rising, and by the way, this is the highest the Dow Jones has closed since early January, so it's better than a one month high

Oil prices closed above $33/barrel for West Texas, again that's the highest level since early January

The dollar is weak across the board, in fact the Canadian dollar hit a 3-month high today against the U.S. dollar - this currency has really been beaten up until recently

Gold, higher again today, up about 4 or 5 bucks, it closed above $1232

What is behind the rally? I think it is the deluge of bad economic news that keeps raining down on this market

I believe more and more people are beginning to realize that the Fed is not only not going to be raising interest rates in 2016, but they will cut them, and do another round of economic stimulus and that's is what is saving the market

The question is, with the Fed actually validate those expectations?

Even Jim Cramer of CNBC can see there's a recession

I just put up an article on my Facebook page yesterday, Cramer is saying the Fed is blind and can't see the recession

Maybe Cramer has been listening to my podcasts...

Do you remember the famous interview with Jim Cramer and Erin Burnett that went viral and he went on a rant about the Fed, "They know nothing!"

You've got Cramer calling out the Fed for not appreciating the weakness in the economy and calling on them to do something

I think they are going to do something, they're not just going to turn a deaf ear to the economy

But the Fed is still officially sticking to the party line

Today I wanted to talk about the CNBC interview with Jim Bullard

First, he told Matt Belvedere he was concerned that "inflation expectations" were too low

Of all the things you're going to worry about as a central banker, you're going to worry about the fact that people don't expect enough inflation?

Historically that would be a victory - that's what you want as a central banker

You want to stamp out the fear of inflation

What Bullard wants is more fear - he wants people to expect even higher inflation than they currently experience

Why would he want that?

Supposedly the lack of belief that inflation is going to be higher is somehow holding back the economy

Bullard believes inflation is going to be higher; why is he upset that the public doesn't believe it, too? Why?

How does the expectation of higher inflation help an economy?

The only thing that's good about inflation is if you're a debtor; if you borrowed money, inflation will help ease the pain of that debt

You would figure the last thing the Fed would want is for people to expect higher inflation, because what would happen to bond holders?

Bond holders would not want to hold bonds at low rates; they would demand higher interest on those bonds, which would crush the government because they don't have the money

It would also crush the Fed, because the Fed's balance sheet is loaded up with long-term government bonds that yield next to nothing

What's going to happen to the value of those bonds if potential buyers believe inflation is going to be higher?

Bond prices will collapse and the Fed will take a huge hit

It makes no sense at all that anyone on the Fed would be worried that inflation expectations aren't high enough

They should be relieved that people aren't smart enough to expect higher inflation

That is going to be one of the best examples of, "Be careful what you wish for"

Also, Bullard acknowledged that 2015 GDP growth was disappointing - 1.8%

And who knows, it might be less, as we're getting revisions to Q4 tomorrow

 Bullard says that this year GDP will be a lot better, forecasting about 2-1/2% growth for 2016

I would have love to have seen a follow up question: "What makes you think that? What is the evidence?"

* We had some wild swing in the market today, particularly the stock market and the gold market

* At one point this morning, the Dow Jones was down about 270 points

* It finished the day up 53 points

* There wasn't any real news that caused the market to go up; people were buying the dip

* The oil market also turned around; it was down a buck and change and managed to close up .20-.30

* Gold was the mirror image; gold was up at one point to $27-$28, back above $1250

* Then when the stock market rallied back the gold market sold off

* It managed to closed with a small $3 gain or so

* Gold stocks closed the day mixed, most still positive on the day

* The reason why the stock market falling is positive for gold is the effect that a falling stock market is going to have on the Fed, and its decisions on future interest rate hikes

* Even if the stock market is not going down, the Fed will still reverse on rates because of the economy

* The economy is back in recession, whether the Fed wants to acknowledge the fact or not

* We had another Fed official, Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker, actually came out saying he sees no signs that a recession is imminent

* He sees no reason why the Fed should not go forward with the planned rate hikes for 2016

* Maybe rose-colored glasses are standard issue over at the Fed

* There is ample evidence that there is a recession

* However, if someone of Lacker's stature would come out and say, "Look, we're going into a recesssion, but rates are really low and the Fed has to raise them anyway, and this is going to be difficult." That would be honest.

* But the Fed is saying they are going to raise rates because the economy is in great shape

* To do otherwise is to admit that the Fed's monetary policy failed

* The Fed is playing a very dangerous game

* Not only do they risk making the economy worse, they risk their credibility

* Here is some economic news that came out today, after Lacker's speech

* At 9:45 am we got the February PMI Flash  Services Index

* Last month, the number was 53.7 and this number was expected to repeat for February

* The February number came out at 49.8! This shows that the recession is not contained to manufacturing

* This reminds me of what they said about sub-prime: "Don't worry about it, the recession is contained to sub-prime." - That was nonsense and it is nonsense now

* The problems in the economy are not contained to manufacturing, and today's numbers prove it

* The service sector contracted in February

* The last time this happened was in October of 2013. That was during the government shut-down, so a lot of government services were not available

* That's an outlier - if you take that out, the last time we had a service sector PMI below 50 was during the great recession

* So again, another indicator flashing recession

* It's amazing to me that the Atlanta Fed still hasn't walked down their 2.6% forecast for Q1 GDP

*  We've gotten so much bad news since the good news that prompted that forecast yet they've done nothing to downwardly revise their estimate

* The FOMC might have said, "Hey, Atlanta, get with the program! We're talking up the economy - stop coming up with these negative forecasts."

* On Friday, we're going to get the revised Q4 GDP numbers, which was originally reported as +.7

* I think it will be revised down, in fact the consensus is a revision down to .4

* So we're getting closer and closer to zero

* The numbers we're getting for the first quarter could be worse, despite the Federal Reserve's rosy scenario

* Also we got New Home Sales, which was a disaster; they were looking for 520,000 and we got 494,000 - that was a big,

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We had some wild swing in the market today, particularly the stock market and the gold market

At one point this morning, the Dow Jones was down about 270 points

It finished the day up 53 points

There wasn't any real news that caused the market to go up; people were buying the dip

The oil market also turned around; it was down a buck and change and managed to close up .20-.30

Gold was the mirror image; gold was up at one point to $27-$28, back above $1250

Then when the stock market rallied back the gold market sold off

It managed to closed with a small $3 gain or so

Gold stocks closed the day mixed, most still positive on the day

The reason why the stock market falling is positive for gold is the effect that a falling stock market is going to have on the Fed, and its decisions on future interest rate hikes

Even if the stock market is not going down, the Fed will still reverse on rates because of the economy

The economy is back in recession, whether the Fed wants to acknowledge the fact or not

We had another Fed official, Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker, actually came out saying he sees no signs that a recession is imminent

He sees no reason why the Fed should not go forward with the planned rate hikes for 2016

Maybe rose-colored glasses are standard issue over at the Fed

There is ample evidence that there is a recession

However, if someone of Lacker's stature would come out and say, "Look, we're going into a recesssion, but rates are really low and the Fed has to raise them anyway, and this is going to be difficult." That would be honest.

But the Fed is saying they are going to raise rates because the economy is in great shape

To do otherwise is to admit that the Fed's monetary policy failed

The Fed is playing a very dangerous game

Not only do they risk making the economy worse, they risk their credibility

Here is some economic news that came out today, after Lacker's speech

At 9:45 am we got the February PMI Flash  Services Index

Last month, the number was 53.7 and this number was expected to repeat for February

The February number came out at 49.8! This shows that the recession is not contained to manufacturing

This reminds me of what they said about sub-prime: "Don't worry about it, the recession is contained to sub-prime." - That was nonsense and it is nonsense now

The problems in the economy are not contained to manufacturing, and today's numbers prove it

The service sector contracted in February

The last time this happened was in October of 2013. That was during the government shut-down, so a lot of government services were not available

That's an outlier - if you take that out, the last time we had a service sector PMI below 50 was during the great recession

So again, another indicator flashing recession

It's amazing to me that the Atlanta Fed still hasn't walked down their 2.6% forecast for Q1 GDP

 We've gotten so much bad news since the good news that prompted that forecast yet they've done nothing to downwardly revise their estimate

The FOMC might have said, "Hey, Atlanta, get with the program! We're talking up the economy - stop coming up with these negative forecasts."

On Friday, we're going to get the revised Q4 GDP numbers, which was originally reported as +.7

I think it will be revised down, in fact the consensus is a revision down to .4

So we're getting closer and closer to zero

The numbers we're getting for the first quarter could be worse, despite the Federal Reserve's rosy scenario

Also we got New Home Sales, which was a disaster; they were looking for 520,000 and we got 494,000 - that was a big, big miss and the lowest level in a couple of years

In fact we got a couple of disappointing corporate earnings today: Avis stock was down 26% on the day

Today, after the bell, Restoration Hardware forecasted a terrible Q4 and broke out every excuse in the book

This morning on CNBC, they were commenting on the "strength of the c...

* It looks like Jamie Dimon's bottom turned out to be the trap door I thought it was, with the Dow Jones today down almost 190 points

* The market was let lower by the financials, JP Morgan itself down better than 4%

* Remember it was Jami Dimon having the confidence to put a year's salary into company stock that sparked this rally, but it seems to be losing steam and rolling over

* Because we're not going to get a lasting bottom until the Fed makes that bottom

*  It's not going to be a Jamie Dimon bottom, it has to be a Janet Yellen bottom; and as much as I have no interest in seeing Janet Yellen's bottom, that's exactly what we're going to have to do to get a real low in this market

* Every single decline that the market has experienced since 2009, the bottom has been set by the Fed

* It's been the Fed forming that bottom by coming to the rescue with rate cuts, QE programs, Operation Twist, hinting about more QE, and so far, the Fed has done none of that

* The Fed is still sticking to its narrative that rate hikes are coming

* Yes, nobody believes they're coming anytime soon, but that is still the official forecast

* Meanwhile, the markets can't even deal with rates as is

* The gold market will be the mirror image of the stock market; gold was up about $16 today

* It reversed a near $20 decline yesterday, but it consolidating its huge move above $1200

* So we are not getting the pullback that Dennis Gartman and Jim Cramer are hoping for to get on board

* I think if people want to get on board this train, this is the stop.

* If you like gold, just buy it and be happy that you're getting it for $1225 - yes, you could have bought it below $1100 in December, but $1225 is still cheap

* The most interesting about yesterday's drop in gold - the gold stocks didn't really decline

* Most of the gold stocks finished positive on the day

* Gold stocks added to their gains today, and many are sitting on their highest close of the year, and several are at 52-week highs

* Other than the gold stocks, the 52-week high list is pretty short

* The 52-week low list looks like a rap sheet

* Something happened on Friday that made some people believe that help from the Fed is not forthcoming

* Which may be part of the reason why the markets are declining

* The release of the CPI number caught a lot of people by surprise: January consumer prices, forecast to drop by .1%

* The real number was the core rate, which excludes food and energy was up .3, month over month - the biggest jump since August 2011

* The increase in the core price year-over-year was 2.2%, the biggest increase since June of 2012

* Remember, the Fed says our target is 2%, well, we got 2.2!

* We're there! We can raise rates! That's what's so scary

* I wrote a commentary that is posted on this website, "The Fed’s Nightmare Scenario", and I got that title after reading an article in which an economist who, observing that the CPI was 2.2% announced that this is a"dream come true" for the Fed

* He cited inflation as the primary barrier to the Fed's rate increase goals

* The Fed's "mandate" of 2% inflation is finally met

* First, the Fed doesn't have a mandate of 2% inflation. They made that up.

* The Fed's real mandate is price stability, which doesn't require a definition, because everybody knows what the word "stable" means

* The Federal Reserve decided to interpret that mandate to mean an increase of 2%

* The late U.S. Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia was one of the few justices who believed in the "bizarre concept" of original intent

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It looks like Jamie Dimon's bottom turned out to be the trap door I thought it was, with the Dow Jones today down almost 190 points

The market was let lower by the financials, JP Morgan itself down better than 4%

Remember it was Jami Dimon having the confidence to put a year's salary into company stock that sparked this rally, but it seems to be losing steam and rolling over

Because we're not going to get a lasting bottom until the Fed makes that bottom

 It's not going to be a Jamie Dimon bottom, it has to be a Janet Yellen bottom; and as much as I have no interest in seeing Janet Yellen's bottom, that's exactly what we're going to have to do to get a real low in this market

Every single decline that the market has experienced since 2009, the bottom has been set by the Fed

It's been the Fed forming that bottom by coming to the rescue with rate cuts, QE programs, Operation Twist, hinting about more QE, and so far, the Fed has done none of that

The Fed is still sticking to its narrative that rate hikes are coming

Yes, nobody believes they're coming anytime soon, but that is still the official forecast

Meanwhile, the markets can't even deal with rates as is

The gold market will be the mirror image of the stock market; gold was up about $16 today

It reversed a near $20 decline yesterday, but it consolidating its huge move above $1200

So we are not getting the pullback that Dennis Gartman and Jim Cramer are hoping for to get on board

I think if people want to get on board this train, this is the stop.

If you like gold, just buy it and be happy that you're getting it for $1225 - yes, you could have bought it below $1100 in December, but $1225 is still cheap

The most interesting about yesterday's drop in gold - the gold stocks didn't really decline

Most of the gold stocks finished positive on the day

Gold stocks added to their gains today, and many are sitting on their highest close of the year, and several are at 52-week highs

Other than the gold stocks, the 52-week high list is pretty short

The 52-week low list looks like a rap sheet

Something happened on Friday that made some people believe that help from the Fed is not forthcoming

Which may be part of the reason why the markets are declining

The release of the CPI number caught a lot of people by surprise: January consumer prices, forecast to drop by .1%

The real number was the core rate, which excludes food and energy was up .3, month over month - the biggest jump since August 2011

The increase in the core price year-over-year was 2.2%, the biggest increase since June of 2012

Remember, the Fed says our target is 2%, well, we got 2.2!

We're there! We can raise rates! That's what's so scary

I wrote a commentary that is posted on this website, "The Fed’s Nightmare Scenario", and I got that title after reading an article in which an economist who, observing that the CPI was 2.2% announced that this is a"dream come true" for the Fed

He cited inflation as the primary barrier to the Fed's rate increase goals

The Fed's "mandate" of 2% inflation is finally met

First, the Fed doesn't have a mandate of 2% inflation. They made that up.

The Fed's real mandate is price stability, which doesn't require a definition, because everybody knows what the word "stable" means

The Federal Reserve decided to interpret that mandate to mean an increase of 2%

The late U.S. Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia was one of the few justices who believed in the "bizarre concept" of original intent

He believed that the Constitution actually meant what the founding fathers intended it to mean, that the words actually mean what they say

My father always said, "If you want to know what the Constitution says, read it.  It's not written in Chinese."

If you're really not sure, go back and read the Federalist Papers, where the framers of the Constitution discussed the intent of the document

Today,

* What a difference two days make! Two days ago I recorded my podcast, "Goldman Sachs Sacks Gold", and that was because Goldman Sachs' comments about shorting gold were partially responsible for the severity of the drop in gold over the holiday weekend

* Today, gold is fighting back, at one gold was up better than $30, although as I record this the price has pulled back a bit, still above $1230 - up about $22 on the day

* Gold stocks, the GDX index I mentioned in my last podcast, was up 6% on the day, the biggest move up of the year

* That index has recovered everything it lost on Tuesday

* GDX would have been up a lot more, except that Newmont Mining came out with lower than expected earnings for the 4th quarter; so that stock was only up about 1% after dropping  7% in the first hour of trading

* Several gold stocks made new 52-week highs today and several others are at the highest point of this calendar year

* A very strong day for gold and gold stocks just a couple of days after Goldman Sachs recommended selling the metal short

* People would have been much better off shorting Goldman Sachs

* One of the other catalysts for the rise in the price of gold may well have been the comments made overnight by Jim Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

* After I read his comments, I expected the price of gold to rally right away, but it didn't begin until later this morning

* Bullard was one of the real Hawks on the Fed, he wanted to raise rates much earlier, citing concern about a stock market bubble

* Talk about closing the barn door after the horses have left!  They have left the stables, the property, they're barely on the planet!

* His comments last night about why the Fed should slow down the rate hikes are ironic, because his reason is the volatility in the stock market

* Let me get this straight: He wants to raise rates because we don't want a stock market bubble;

* They raise rates, the bubble is deflating and he wants to stop the rate cuts

* You can't have it both ways.

* Do you want to use monetary policy to prop up the stock market or not?

* Bullard has not turned dove, do who's left? The FOMC minutes came out Wednesday and they showed that only a couple of governors did not show concern over the weakness in the stock market

* What really should get the Fed governors nervous is the economy

* Today we got the Leading Economic Indicators and last month they were down, in fast the original estimate for December was-.2 - instead, it was revised to -.3

* January is now -.2, so that is the second consecutive month of declining Leading Economic Indicators

* That has not happened since August and September of 2011

* Here's the interesting part: QE2 ended in June of that year, so 2 months after the end of QE2, the economic indicators flashed recession

* What did the Fed do? In September of 2011, the second month of the back-to-back declines in LEI, the Fed launched Operation Twist

* That's what happening now, they just raised interest rates, we got back-to-back declines in LEI, what's the Fed going to do? They are going to come back and save the market

* We got more bad economic news today; the Philly Fed, this is the 6th consecutive monthly decline

* January was down 3.5%; February was down 2.8%

* They were expecting -2.5%, so we got a bigger decline than expected

* We got weak news on the housing market; housing starts dropping to a 3-month low, much lower than the 1.175M - instead we got 1.099M

* Permits were also light; they were looking for 1.334M and we got 1.202M on starts

* I think we are just getting started when it comes to the fallout in the housing market

Our Sponsors:
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What a difference two days make! Two days ago I recorded my podcast, "Goldman Sachs Sacks Gold", and that was because Goldman Sachs' comments about shorting gold were partially responsible for the severity of the drop in gold over the holiday weekend

Today, gold is fighting back, at one gold was up better than $30, although as I record this the price has pulled back a bit, still above $1230 - up about $22 on the day

Gold stocks, the GDX index I mentioned in my last podcast, was up 6% on the day, the biggest move up of the year

That index has recovered everything it lost on Tuesday

GDX would have been up a lot more, except that Newmont Mining came out with lower than expected earnings for the 4th quarter; so that stock was only up about 1% after dropping  7% in the first hour of trading

Several gold stocks made new 52-week highs today and several others are at the highest point of this calendar year

A very strong day for gold and gold stocks just a couple of days after Goldman Sachs recommended selling the metal short

People would have been much better off shorting Goldman Sachs

One of the other catalysts for the rise in the price of gold may well have been the comments made overnight by Jim Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

After I read his comments, I expected the price of gold to rally right away, but it didn't begin until later this morning

Bullard was one of the real Hawks on the Fed, he wanted to raise rates much earlier, citing concern about a stock market bubble

Talk about closing the barn door after the horses have left!  They have left the stables, the property, they're barely on the planet!

His comments last night about why the Fed should slow down the rate hikes are ironic, because his reason is the volatility in the stock market

Let me get this straight: He wants to raise rates because we don't want a stock market bubble;

They raise rates, the bubble is deflating and he wants to stop the rate cuts

You can't have it both ways.

Do you want to use monetary policy to prop up the stock market or not?

Bullard has not turned dove, do who's left? The FOMC minutes came out Wednesday and they showed that only a couple of governors did not show concern over the weakness in the stock market

What really should get the Fed governors nervous is the economy

Today we got the Leading Economic Indicators and last month they were down, in fast the original estimate for December was-.2 - instead, it was revised to -.3

January is now -.2, so that is the second consecutive month of declining Leading Economic Indicators

That has not happened since August and September of 2011

Here's the interesting part: QE2 ended in June of that year, so 2 months after the end of QE2, the economic indicators flashed recession

What did the Fed do? In September of 2011, the second month of the back-to-back declines in LEI, the Fed launched Operation Twist

That's what happening now, they just raised interest rates, we got back-to-back declines in LEI, what's the Fed going to do? They are going to come back and save the market

We got more bad economic news today; the Philly Fed, this is the 6th consecutive monthly decline

January was down 3.5%; February was down 2.8%

They were expecting -2.5%, so we got a bigger decline than expected

We got weak news on the housing market; housing starts dropping to a 3-month low, much lower than the 1.175M - instead we got 1.099M

Permits were also light; they were looking for 1.334M and we got 1.202M on starts

I think we are just getting started when it comes to the fallout in the housing market

One thing keeping it afloat is the ultra-low mortgage rates, which are the lowest they've been at any point in a cycle

Despite all that, the market is just barely hanging on, at best we've got a big pickup in refinances

Cheap prices didn't do much to benefit Walmart

They came out with earnings, which managed to beat estimates,

* The big story of the day was the pullback in the price of gold

* Gold was above $1260 last week; it pulled back a little bit on Friday, but the real damage happened overnight on Monday, while we were celebrating Presidents' Day

* At one point gold was down almost $50; trading even below $1190

* When we opened up for trading in New York, gold was back above $1210.; it tried to rally, but really couldn't, in fact the only time gold rallied today is when the Dow sold off to +50 from +150

* The stock market and the gold market are the mirror image of each other right now

* Ultimately, I do believe that stocks, gold stocks and gold will be going in the same direction because they will all respond positively to the Fed admitting that it will not raise interest rates, and in fact cut them and will launch QE4

* Now, gold is the safe haven from weak stocks, but the best environment is when the Fed steps up to save stocks, and that's when the gold trade is going to catch a bid

* But when the market closed on the highs of the day, up over 200 points, that means gold closed on the low of the day

* GLD, the ETF for gold, for today's decline, we were down $35.90

* In the spot market, we closed right about $1200 even

* A good point: look at the gold stocks, GDX, that index was down 8.65%

* In all the big gold up days, we never had a comparable up day for gold stocks

* On gold's best day, the biggest day since 2008, gold stocks were just up about 5%

* Yet on the down side, a -3% move in gold produces a -9% move in gold stocks

* Why is all the movement on the down side?

* One, there's still more fear than greed in the gold market

* This is a good sign - a bull market climbing a wall of worry

* This is just a resumption of a long-term secular market that began in 1999-2000

* Goldman Sachs rhetoric may in part be responsible for the sharp selloff

* I mention on last week's podcast that Goldman was recommending a sell on gold, that it was going back down to $1000

* On Monday, while the market was having a holiday, Goldman Sachs was out with their PR again, not only telling people to sell gold, but to short gold

* Why would Goldman Sachs be telling people to short gold?

*  Why would they bother with a 20% short when there are so many stocks being killed right now that would be much better to short

* Gold will never be worthless, what if it goes up? Why risk losing all that money?

* The risk/reward isn't there

* Goldman says they don't think there will be a recession and the Fed's going to keep raising rates

* They admit there is a small chance of a recession this year: what's going to happen to gold if we go into recession?

* What happens if you have shorted gold, hoping to capture just 20%?

* The only thing that would make sense to me is that Goldman Sachs wants the price of gold to go down because they're probably already short - that's why


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The big story of the day was the pullback in the price of gold

Gold was above $1260 last week; it pulled back a little bit on Friday, but the real damage happened overnight on Monday, while we were celebrating Presidents' Day

At one point gold was down almost $50; trading even below $1190

When we opened up for trading in New York, gold was back above $1210.; it tried to rally, but really couldn't, in fact the only time gold rallied today is when the Dow sold off to +50 from +150

The stock market and the gold market are the mirror image of each other right now

Ultimately, I do believe that stocks, gold stocks and gold will be going in the same direction because they will all respond positively to the Fed admitting that it will not raise interest rates, and in fact cut them and will launch QE4

Now, gold is the safe haven from weak stocks, but the best environment is when the Fed steps up to save stocks, and that's when the gold trade is going to catch a bid

But when the market closed on the highs of the day, up over 200 points, that means gold closed on the low of the day

GLD, the ETF for gold, for today's decline, we were down $35.90

In the spot market, we closed right about $1200 even

A good point: look at the gold stocks, GDX, that index was down 8.65%

In all the big gold up days, we never had a comparable up day for gold stocks

On gold's best day, the biggest day since 2008, gold stocks were just up about 5%

Yet on the down side, a -3% move in gold produces a -9% move in gold stocks

Why is all the movement on the down side?

One, there's still more fear than greed in the gold market

This is a good sign - a bull market climbing a wall of worry

This is just a resumption of a long-term secular market that began in 1999-2000

Goldman Sachs rhetoric may in part be responsible for the sharp selloff

I mention on last week's podcast that Goldman was recommending a sell on gold, that it was going back down to $1000

On Monday, while the market was having a holiday, Goldman Sachs was out with their PR again, not only telling people to sell gold, but to short gold

Why would Goldman Sachs be telling people to short gold?

 Why would they bother with a 20% short when there are so many stocks being killed right now that would be much better to short

Gold will never be worthless, what if it goes up? Why risk losing all that money?

The risk/reward isn't there

Goldman says they don't think there will be a recession and the Fed's going to keep raising rates

They admit there is a small chance of a recession this year: what's going to happen to gold if we go into recession?

What happens if you have shorted gold, hoping to capture just 20%?

The only thing that would make sense to me is that Goldman Sachs wants the price of gold to go down because they're probably already short - that's why