The Peter Schiff Show Podcast

* Earlier today we released the most important Non-Farm Payroll report ever, at least according to the media

* A WSJ article stated that this report could "seal the deal" on rate hikes

* Interest rates have been at zero for 7 years as the Fed contemplated lift-off

* It all boiled down to one jobs report?

* If the Fed were going to raise interest rates in 2 weeks, how can it count on its accuracy or the fact that numbers will change next month?

* Let's get into the numbers:

* The number we got was 173,000 - well below the consensus forecast

* One of the weaker components was private payrolls, which only grew by 140,000 vs and expected 211,000

* The headline number is the unemployment drop to 5.1% - the lowest in the Obama presidency

* Once again, the devil is in the details

* The unemployment rate is falling because of the mass exodus from the labor force

* Another 261,000 Americans left the labor force this month

* The participation rate held steady at 62.6%

* The lowest rate since 1977

* I think it's heading lower

* The total number of persons not in the labor force rose to a new record: 94,031,000

* Also this month another 158,000 Americans find themselves involuntarily employed part-time

* That's what's responsible for the "improvement" in the labor numbers

* Janet Yellen specifically wanted to an increase in labor force participation and more full-time jobs before contemplating raising rates

* Those numbers have gone in the wrong direction

* Why is nobody pointing this out?

* This is the 9th month in a row that year-over-year factory orders have declined

* The only other time that has happened is during recession

* Every time we've seen a sharp decline in the market accompanied by an increase in the volatility index, the Fed has responded with Quantitative Easing

* More and more people now do not believe the Fed will raise rates in September

* If the Fed raises interest rates and the market keeps falling and the economy rolls over, the Fed loses a lot of credibility

* This is affecting global markets

* The Dow is now in correction

* I pointed out in my last video blog that: a) the Fed has never raised interest rates from zero and b)normally the Fed raises interest rates into an accelerating economy

* This time the Fed is raising interest rates when the economy is weakening

* This time a rate hike will prick a much larger bubble

* Even if the Fed raised rates to a quarter of a percent, that is still cheap money

* The markets are forward-looking and they are not going to like what they see

* The dollar strengthened on anticipation that the Fed will raise rates

* America cannot afford higher interest rates on the debt we have now

* One of the things most people overlook is the huge stockpile of U.Ss treasuries that are held abroad

* Why do the emerging markets have so may dollars?

* In the aftermath of the 1997 Asian economic crisis, they bought dollars as a reserve to defend their currency if it started to fall

* That is happening

* So now, foreign governments are going to start drawing on their reserves, selling treasuries to shore up their currencies

* The vast majority of the accumulation happened after QE1, when we had a currency war

* The media has labeled this sell-off "Quantitative Tightening"

* China has already started to gradually sell treasuries

* The Fed has promised not to roll over maturing treasuries and to shrink the $4.5 trillion balance sheet to about a trillion

* That's $3.5 trillion of Quantitative Tightening

* Interest rates would have to rise dramatically to attract real buyers to U.S. treasuries

* No one can afford higher rates,

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Earlier today we released the most important Non-Farm Payroll report ever, at least according to the media

A WSJ article stated that this report could "seal the deal" on rate hikes

Interest rates have been at zero for 7 years as the Fed contemplated lift-off

It all boiled down to one jobs report?

If the Fed were going to raise interest rates in 2 weeks, how can it count on its accuracy or the fact that numbers will change next month?

Let's get into the numbers:

The number we got was 173,000 - well below the consensus forecast

One of the weaker components was private payrolls, which only grew by 140,000 vs and expected 211,000

The headline number is the unemployment drop to 5.1% - the lowest in the Obama presidency

Once again, the devil is in the details

The unemployment rate is falling because of the mass exodus from the labor force

Another 261,000 Americans left the labor force this month

The participation rate held steady at 62.6%

The lowest rate since 1977

I think it's heading lower

The total number of persons not in the labor force rose to a new record: 94,031,000

Also this month another 158,000 Americans find themselves involuntarily employed part-time

That's what's responsible for the "improvement" in the labor numbers

Janet Yellen specifically wanted to an increase in labor force participation and more full-time jobs before contemplating raising rates

Those numbers have gone in the wrong direction

Why is nobody pointing this out?

This is the 9th month in a row that year-over-year factory orders have declined

The only other time that has happened is during recession

Every time we've seen a sharp decline in the market accompanied by an increase in the volatility index, the Fed has responded with Quantitative Easing

More and more people now do not believe the Fed will raise rates in September

If the Fed raises interest rates and the market keeps falling and the economy rolls over, the Fed loses a lot of credibility

This is affecting global markets

The Dow is now in correction

I pointed out in my last video blog that: a) the Fed has never raised interest rates from zero and b)normally the Fed raises interest rates into an accelerating economy

This time the Fed is raising interest rates when the economy is weakening

This time a rate hike will prick a much larger bubble

Even if the Fed raised rates to a quarter of a percent, that is still cheap money

The markets are forward-looking and they are not going to like what they see

The dollar strengthened on anticipation that the Fed will raise rates

America cannot afford higher interest rates on the debt we have now

One of the things most people overlook is the huge stockpile of U.Ss treasuries that are held abroad

Why do the emerging markets have so may dollars?

In the aftermath of the 1997 Asian economic crisis, they bought dollars as a reserve to defend their currency if it started to fall

That is happening

So now, foreign governments are going to start drawing on their reserves, selling treasuries to shore up their currencies

The vast majority of the accumulation happened after QE1, when we had a currency war

The media has labeled this sell-off "Quantitative Tightening"

China has already started to gradually sell treasuries

The Fed has promised not to roll over maturing treasuries and to shrink the $4.5 trillion balance sheet to about a trillion

That's $3.5 trillion of Quantitative Tightening

Interest rates would have to rise dramatically to attract real buyers to U.S. treasuries

No one can afford higher rates, though

The Fed is not about to embark on rate-tightening now

How long is this game of chicken going to go on?

The market will continue to fall until the Fed admits it cannot raise rates

The inventory to sales ratio continues to climb, but declining manufacturing jobs is an indication that the sales are not there

Talk of rate hikes will go away and the reality of anot...

* The Dow just finished its worst month in over 4 years

* A lot has happened in the market since I recorded my last podcast

* When I recorded that podcast, I had anticipated a "Turnaround Tuesday" where the market would gap up, but then sell off by the close

* That is exactly what happened

* Then the Dow had its biggest 3-day rally in history

* Still that record-setting rise was not enough to repair the damage done that was done earlier

* The Dow had its biggest down month in over 4 years

* Still in official correction territory

* Adding woes to the stock market are Fed comments that September rate hikes are not off the table

* This will continue to add pressure on the markets

* If this week's Non-Farm Payroll number is positive, it could be very dangerous for the Dow Jones

* Technically, the market is very vulnerable, and without the Fed's support there is little to stop the correction from progressing into a bear market

* All of the big money is starting to sell stocks because they believe the Fed may raise rates

* The market will keep falling until the Fed cries, "Uncle!"

* Once the Fed comes to the rescue, big money will start buying again

* The Fed is still ignoring negative economic data, such as today's August Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey which came in at -15.8

* There is probably not going to be much change in the unemployment number, no matter how weak the economy is

* Walmart is now cutting back on hours because they increased wages earlier

* As long as the Fed is continuing to bluff that rate hikes are on the table for September or October, this market will be under a lot of pressure

* If we close below the lows of last Monday, it is going to get ugly really fast

* The Fed doesn't want the market to connect the dots directly from monetary policy to market performance

* That would illustrate how unsustainable its policies really are

* I compared the Fed's tactics to trying to yank the table out from under the tablecloth, rather than the tablecloth out from under the dishes

* The Fed was basing the whole recovery on lifting the asset markets

* As soon as the Fed stops lifting, the recovery goes away

* One of the interesting things today was the reversal in oil prices

* One of the few times oil prices rose, and the stock market didn't

* Over the last 3 three days, we've had better than a $10 increase in the price of oil

* Oil needs to go up quite a bit more before we can say a bottom is in

* An end to rate hike rhetoric will knock the support out from under the dollar and that the strong dollar is undermining global demand for crude oil

* I was in Jackson Hole during The Federal Reserve's Annual Economic Policy Symposium to participate in the American Principles Project Economic Summit, which was a protest against Fed policy

* Concurrent to our conference another organization called, "Fed Up", sponsored by the AFLCIO and Black Lives Matter

* Working class protesters carried signs encouraging the Fed to keep interest rates down and target higher inflation

* How is that going to help these working-class "protestors"?

* These participants probably had very little knowledge of the Fed or monetary policy

* The American Principles Project Economic Summit was denied access to the resort where the Fed Summit met because for security reasons, citing that other group was allowed to meet in that venue

* "Fed Up", however, was allowed to meet in the same venue as the Federal Reserve

* I think "Fed Up" conference was staged. They conveniently provided a backdrop of signs encouraging more of the Fed's existing monetary policy

* The protest I participated in was sharply critical of the Fed's monetary policy,

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The Dow just finished its worst month in over 4 years

A lot has happened in the market since I recorded my last podcast

When I recorded that podcast, I had anticipated a "Turnaround Tuesday" where the market would gap up, but then sell off by the close

That is exactly what happened

Then the Dow had its biggest 3-day rally in history

Still that record-setting rise was not enough to repair the damage done that was done earlier

The Dow had its biggest down month in over 4 years

Still in official correction territory

Adding woes to the stock market are Fed comments that September rate hikes are not off the table

This will continue to add pressure on the markets

If this week's Non-Farm Payroll number is positive, it could be very dangerous for the Dow Jones

Technically, the market is very vulnerable, and without the Fed's support there is little to stop the correction from progressing into a bear market

All of the big money is starting to sell stocks because they believe the Fed may raise rates

The market will keep falling until the Fed cries, "Uncle!"

Once the Fed comes to the rescue, big money will start buying again

The Fed is still ignoring negative economic data, such as today's August Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey which came in at -15.8

There is probably not going to be much change in the unemployment number, no matter how weak the economy is

Walmart is now cutting back on hours because they increased wages earlier

As long as the Fed is continuing to bluff that rate hikes are on the table for September or October, this market will be under a lot of pressure

If we close below the lows of last Monday, it is going to get ugly really fast

The Fed doesn't want the market to connect the dots directly from monetary policy to market performance

That would illustrate how unsustainable its policies really are

I compared the Fed's tactics to trying to yank the table out from under the tablecloth, rather than the tablecloth out from under the dishes

The Fed was basing the whole recovery on lifting the asset markets

As soon as the Fed stops lifting, the recovery goes away

One of the interesting things today was the reversal in oil prices

One of the few times oil prices rose, and the stock market didn't

Over the last 3 three days, we've had better than a $10 increase in the price of oil

Oil needs to go up quite a bit more before we can say a bottom is in

An end to rate hike rhetoric will knock the support out from under the dollar and that the strong dollar is undermining global demand for crude oil

I was in Jackson Hole during The Federal Reserve's Annual Economic Policy Symposium to participate in the American Principles Project Economic Summit, which was a protest against Fed policy

Concurrent to our conference another organization called, "Fed Up", sponsored by the AFLCIO and Black Lives Matter

Working class protesters carried signs encouraging the Fed to keep interest rates down and target higher inflation

How is that going to help these working-class "protestors"?

These participants probably had very little knowledge of the Fed or monetary policy

The American Principles Project Economic Summit was denied access to the resort where the Fed Summit met because for security reasons, citing that other group was allowed to meet in that venue

"Fed Up", however, was allowed to meet in the same venue as the Federal Reserve

I think "Fed Up" conference was staged. They conveniently provided a backdrop of signs encouraging more of the Fed's existing monetary policy

The protest I participated in was sharply critical of the Fed's monetary policy, calling for an end to the the false support that has created asset market bubbles

My thesis is that the Fed's talk of raising rates is just a show and the "Fed Up" protesters' signs are just part of that show

The irony that is lost on everybody is that the protesters understand that the economy is bad,

* It wasn't a Black Monday of the 1987 variety, but it was one for the record books

* The Dow was down opened downjust over 1,000 points - the biggest intra-day point drop ever

* When the market opened down that low, bargain hunters came in for a spectacular rally

* Bringing the Dow almost back into positive territory before surrendering those gains and ending the day down 588 points, another 3.5% drop, closing at 15,871

* Taking out the 16,000 handle just a few days after taking out the 17,000 handle

* All of these drops are being blamed by the media on China

* The Dow Jones is down about 11% year to date

* After today's drop, the Chinese market was down less than 1%

* This is not all about falling Chinese stocks

* It's the Fed - Everybody believes the Fed is going to end the party

* As we got closer to September, the stock market was already going down

* I've said all along that the Fed was bluffing - it is a game of chicken

* Finally, today, Barclay's is predicting a Fed rate hike in March of 2016

* I think the Fed will launch QE4 before we get to a rate hike in March 2016, which is an election year

* The media wants to blame the correction on China, as if there are no domestic problems to worry about

* China should be blaming it on us - we're the ones who got the world hooked on zero percent interest rates

* The fantasy was that we could raise rates without an impact on the economy

* The falling stock market is going to have an impact on the real economy

* The economy is weak and getting weaker

* This correction will turn into a full-fledged bear market unless we get some official statement from the Fed that they will not raise rates

* That may come later this week in Jackson Hole

* I am going to be in Jackson Hole at an anti-Fed conference

* Here's an example of how ridiculous the "Blame China" rhetoric is:

* Maria Bartoromo was talking about the market decline with respect to the China currency devaluation

* She actually said that by devaluing the Yuan, Chinese made products will be more competitive against American-made products

* America does not produce products that compete with Chinese products!

* She's grasping at straws to connect the stock market correction with the Chinese Yuan devaluation

* Right now it is positive for America if we can purchase Chinese products more cheaply because we're buying them anyway

* Eventually, however, Chinese products will get more expensive when the yuan goes up

* She's just trying to fit the narrative because that's what makes everybody feel comfortable

* That's why I am not on CNBC and CNN - they realize my comments do not support their editorial policy

* I am not talking about Armageddon for the markets - I am talking about the Fed saving the day

* I don't think the market is going to crash, but I believe it will go down until the Fed cries "Uncle" and prop up the equities markets with another round of QE

* The Federal Reserve did not solve our problems in 2008 - they interrupted the crisis with QE and zero percent interest rates

* That crisis would have solved the problem but we kicked the can down the road and we finally caught up to that can

* We are resuming the financial crisis that the Fed interrupted from a much deeper hole

* Had the Fed raised rates two years ago, we would have been in recession sooner

* They should have allowed the markets to solve the problems they caused

* Now we have more debt than ever before

* I have also been talking about the developments in the foreign exchange markets

* The dollar has been strong because rate hikes were expected

* The strong dollar has weakened commodities,

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It wasn't a Black Monday of the 1987 variety, but it was one for the record books

The Dow was down opened downjust over 1,000 points - the biggest intra-day point drop ever

When the market opened down that low, bargain hunters came in for a spectacular rally

Bringing the Dow almost back into positive territory before surrendering those gains and ending the day down 588 points, another 3.5% drop, closing at 15,871

Taking out the 16,000 handle just a few days after taking out the 17,000 handle

All of these drops are being blamed by the media on China

The Dow Jones is down about 11% year to date

After today's drop, the Chinese market was down less than 1%

This is not all about falling Chinese stocks

It's the Fed - Everybody believes the Fed is going to end the party

As we got closer to September, the stock market was already going down

I've said all along that the Fed was bluffing - it is a game of chicken

Finally, today, Barclay's is predicting a Fed rate hike in March of 2016

I think the Fed will launch QE4 before we get to a rate hike in March 2016, which is an election year

The media wants to blame the correction on China, as if there are no domestic problems to worry about

China should be blaming it on us - we're the ones who got the world hooked on zero percent interest rates

The fantasy was that we could raise rates without an impact on the economy

The falling stock market is going to have an impact on the real economy

The economy is weak and getting weaker

This correction will turn into a full-fledged bear market unless we get some official statement from the Fed that they will not raise rates

That may come later this week in Jackson Hole

I am going to be in Jackson Hole at an anti-Fed conference

Here's an example of how ridiculous the "Blame China" rhetoric is:

Maria Bartoromo was talking about the market decline with respect to the China currency devaluation

She actually said that by devaluing the Yuan, Chinese made products will be more competitive against American-made products

America does not produce products that compete with Chinese products!

She's grasping at straws to connect the stock market correction with the Chinese Yuan devaluation

Right now it is positive for America if we can purchase Chinese products more cheaply because we're buying them anyway

Eventually, however, Chinese products will get more expensive when the yuan goes up

She's just trying to fit the narrative because that's what makes everybody feel comfortable

That's why I am not on CNBC and CNN - they realize my comments do not support their editorial policy

I am not talking about Armageddon for the markets - I am talking about the Fed saving the day

I don't think the market is going to crash, but I believe it will go down until the Fed cries "Uncle" and prop up the equities markets with another round of QE

The Federal Reserve did not solve our problems in 2008 - they interrupted the crisis with QE and zero percent interest rates

That crisis would have solved the problem but we kicked the can down the road and we finally caught up to that can

We are resuming the financial crisis that the Fed interrupted from a much deeper hole

Had the Fed raised rates two years ago, we would have been in recession sooner

They should have allowed the markets to solve the problems they caused

Now we have more debt than ever before

I have also been talking about the developments in the foreign exchange markets

The dollar has been strong because rate hikes were expected

The strong dollar has weakened commodities, other currencies and put pressure on emerging markets

We had at one point a 4% drop against the Japanese Yen

The Euro got as high as 117 this morning

The dollar index closed below 93.50, which was a key support

The turn in the dollar index is significant

I expect gold prices to march higher

Gold stocks got crushed today, however,

* What a week for global stock markets, but in particular, the U.S. stock market, which had its worst week in 4 years

* The Dow Jones down better than 1,000 points - over 10% from its peak puts it in official correction territory

* One-third of the stocks in the S&P 500 are already down 20% from their highs

* The Dow lost more than half of the 1,000 points today - 530 points, which is the 9th biggest point decline ever

* This is on top of the 350 points dropped on Thursday

* Thursday we broke below some key technical levels so Friday's drop was inevitable

* There could be a bigger one looming for Monday

* This is reminiscent of the weekend before Black Monday back in 1987

* We are only about 300 points above the lows from October last year when St. Louis Fed President James Bullard saved the market and sent the Dow up 2,000 points

* This time he is throwing the market an anchor

* He still indicates the Fed is undecided

* What data over the next couple of weeks could be that significant?

* The Fed does not want to admit that they can't raise rates

* When is the Fed going to blink?

* Valuations are extremely high, and the Fed is about to go from supporting the market to leaning against it

* The economy is decelerating

* I think the market is going to surrender all the gains it has made since March of 2009

* None of those gains have been real - they did not come from increased production or a genuine increase in corporate earnings, it was all Fed engineering

* The market has gained no ground since QE was suspended

* If the market goes down on Monday, what is the Fed going to do?

* The Fed needs an excuse not to raise rates

* The drop is not because of China

* The problem in China and in the emerging markets is caused by the perception that U.S. Fed is going to raise rates

* The markets want to blame the market correction on China but that is not why our market had a correction

* Emerging market currencies are taking the brunt of the selling by those who are expecting a Fed rate hike

* The euro is very strong today, and the dollar index is declining

* The euro is going to go on a big move, especially if the Fed caves

* Gold is up $80 in the last 2 weeks

* What happened to the theory that gold will collapse below 1000?

* Two weeks ago hedge funds were for the first time net short gold

* How is that trade working out for them now?

* A lot of people are trapped short the euro and short gold

* Now pro-dollar bets are pressing smaller currencies

* This is the last throes of the dollar bull, based on the rate hikes that aren't going to happen

* At the end of the 6 or 7 year journey, there can't be a rate hike

* If the Fed actually raises rates, they lose credibility because they will have to immediately reverse course

* If they do not raise rates, they can say caution is needed because of another dip in the recession

* This way they don't have to admit that the policy was a failure

* The only economic data that came out today was the August Manufacturing PMI number - expected to improve over last month

* It dropped again to 52.9 - the lowest level since October 2013, and the biggest miss in 2 years

* If the Fed is truly data dependent it would have already admitted that it can't raise rates

* At the end of 2014, I predicted that 2015 would be a much weaker economy than forecasted

* I was right about that

* I thought by now the Fed would have admitted that the economy is too weak for a rate hike

* But the Fed just keeps talking about a potential rate hike as though it were a real possibility

* This is a very dangerous game

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What a week for global stock markets, but in particular, the U.S. stock market, which had its worst week in 4 years

The Dow Jones down better than 1,000 points - over 10% from its peak puts it in official correction territory

One-third of the stocks in the S&P 500 are already down 20% from their highs

The Dow lost more than half of the 1,000 points today - 530 points, which is the 9th biggest point decline ever

This is on top of the 350 points dropped on Thursday

Thursday we broke below some key technical levels so Friday's drop was inevitable

There could be a bigger one looming for Monday

This is reminiscent of the weekend before Black Monday back in 1987

We are only about 300 points above the lows from October last year when St. Louis Fed President James Bullard saved the market and sent the Dow up 2,000 points

This time he is throwing the market an anchor

He still indicates the Fed is undecided

What data over the next couple of weeks could be that significant?

The Fed does not want to admit that they can't raise rates

When is the Fed going to blink?

Valuations are extremely high, and the Fed is about to go from supporting the market to leaning against it

The economy is decelerating

I think the market is going to surrender all the gains it has made since March of 2009

None of those gains have been real - they did not come from increased production or a genuine increase in corporate earnings, it was all Fed engineering

The market has gained no ground since QE was suspended

If the market goes down on Monday, what is the Fed going to do?

The Fed needs an excuse not to raise rates

The drop is not because of China

The problem in China and in the emerging markets is caused by the perception that U.S. Fed is going to raise rates

The markets want to blame the market correction on China but that is not why our market had a correction

Emerging market currencies are taking the brunt of the selling by those who are expecting a Fed rate hike

The euro is very strong today, and the dollar index is declining

The euro is going to go on a big move, especially if the Fed caves

Gold is up $80 in the last 2 weeks

What happened to the theory that gold will collapse below 1000?

Two weeks ago hedge funds were for the first time net short gold

How is that trade working out for them now?

A lot of people are trapped short the euro and short gold

Now pro-dollar bets are pressing smaller currencies

This is the last throes of the dollar bull, based on the rate hikes that aren't going to happen

At the end of the 6 or 7 year journey, there can't be a rate hike

If the Fed actually raises rates, they lose credibility because they will have to immediately reverse course

If they do not raise rates, they can say caution is needed because of another dip in the recession

This way they don't have to admit that the policy was a failure

The only economic data that came out today was the August Manufacturing PMI number - expected to improve over last month

It dropped again to 52.9 - the lowest level since October 2013, and the biggest miss in 2 years

If the Fed is truly data dependent it would have already admitted that it can't raise rates

At the end of 2014, I predicted that 2015 would be a much weaker economy than forecasted

I was right about that

I thought by now the Fed would have admitted that the economy is too weak for a rate hike

But the Fed just keeps talking about a potential rate hike as though it were a real possibility

This is a very dangerous game

The Fed is going to have to eventually go to QE4, but in the long term, the market actually needs tight money, but that is going to lead to a much bigger financial crisis than the one we had in 2008

Bank failures, defaults - not only on private debt but also treasuries

That would ultimately be better than the massive inflation we will suffer

The Fed will not have the luxury of holding bonds to maturity if it n...

* Today the FOMC minutes were released at 2:00 today and this is the last look inside the head of the FOMC members before September

* Now expectations are being pushed back to December

* Gold and silver prices were up today in spite of expected hawkish Fed comments

* We are at more than a one-month high in the gold price now above 1130 against a backdrop of extreme bearishness suggests we've seen the low in this cycle

* Silver was down yesterday and recovered dramatically today which suggests an upward trend

* There is no more upside in the "Fed is raising rates" trade

* The Fed may not raise rates at all, or say they might not raise rates again

* Is the Fed raising rates just so they can cut them? Raising rates will accelerate the recession

* Whether the Fed raises rates or does not raise them, this may be the end of the dollar rally and the end of the gold and silver decline

* The FOMC minutes do not indicate a plan for a rate hike in the future

* The Fed does not want to admit we're not progressing in the direction the Fed wants; we're moving the other way.

* Case in point: the Empire State Manufacturing Index came out on Monday

* Last month, in July the Index was 3.86% - a low number

* The consensus for August was a slight improvement to 4.75%

* We actually got -14.92%

* This is the lowest number since April of 2009 and the biggest miss since 2010

* The Fed is worried that there is not enough inflation

* There's not enough growth and the job market is not there yet

* If the Fed is further away from their goal than they have been in this ridiculous monetary experiment of zero percent interest rates and quantitative easing

* Walmart earnings are down - blaming weak earnings on the strong dollar

* How much weaker will their earnings be with a weak dollar?

* Americans are spending more money on food - inflation that is not being measured

* The Stock Market is still selling off, because a rate hike is not priced in, as it is in the currency markets

* This would be the first Fed rate hike in a decelerating economy

* This is not a normal period, so don't expect the stock market to behave normally

* Now, people are now starting to figure out that the Fed's process is not so smooth

* The stock market will trend down until the Fed comes clean and admits that it cannot raise rates

* This is just a lag between QE3 AND QE4

* Anything that can go wrong, will go wrong and when it comes to this Fed and this monetary policy, Murphy is going to look like an optimist


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Today the FOMC minutes were released at 2:00 today and this is the last look inside the head of the FOMC members before September

Now expectations are being pushed back to December

Gold and silver prices were up today in spite of expected hawkish Fed comments

We are at more than a one-month high in the gold price now above 1130 against a backdrop of extreme bearishness suggests we've seen the low in this cycle

Silver was down yesterday and recovered dramatically today which suggests an upward trend

There is no more upside in the "Fed is raising rates" trade

The Fed may not raise rates at all, or say they might not raise rates again

Is the Fed raising rates just so they can cut them? Raising rates will accelerate the recession

Whether the Fed raises rates or does not raise them, this may be the end of the dollar rally and the end of the gold and silver decline

The FOMC minutes do not indicate a plan for a rate hike in the future

The Fed does not want to admit we're not progressing in the direction the Fed wants; we're moving the other way.

Case in point: the Empire State Manufacturing Index came out on Monday

Last month, in July the Index was 3.86% - a low number

The consensus for August was a slight improvement to 4.75%

We actually got -14.92%

This is the lowest number since April of 2009 and the biggest miss since 2010

The Fed is worried that there is not enough inflation

There's not enough growth and the job market is not there yet

If the Fed is further away from their goal than they have been in this ridiculous monetary experiment of zero percent interest rates and quantitative easing

Walmart earnings are down - blaming weak earnings on the strong dollar

How much weaker will their earnings be with a weak dollar?

Americans are spending more money on food - inflation that is not being measured

The Stock Market is still selling off, because a rate hike is not priced in, as it is in the currency markets

This would be the first Fed rate hike in a decelerating economy

This is not a normal period, so don't expect the stock market to behave normally

Now, people are now starting to figure out that the Fed's process is not so smooth

The stock market will trend down until the Fed comes clean and admits that it cannot raise rates

This is just a lag between QE3 AND QE4

Anything that can go wrong, will go wrong and when it comes to this Fed and this monetary policy, Murphy is going to look like an optimist