The Peter Schiff Show Podcast

Today the FOMC minutes were released at 2:00 today and this is the last look inside the head of the FOMC members before September

Now expectations are being pushed back to December

Gold and silver prices were up today in spite of expected hawkish Fed comments

We are at more than a one-month high in the gold price now above 1130 against a backdrop of extreme bearishness suggests we've seen the low in this cycle

Silver was down yesterday and recovered dramatically today which suggests an upward trend

There is no more upside in the "Fed is raising rates" trade

The Fed may not raise rates at all, or say they might not raise rates again

Is the Fed raising rates just so they can cut them? Raising rates will accelerate the recession

Whether the Fed raises rates or does not raise them, this may be the end of the dollar rally and the end of the gold and silver decline

The FOMC minutes do not indicate a plan for a rate hike in the future

The Fed does not want to admit we're not progressing in the direction the Fed wants; we're moving the other way.

Case in point: the Empire State Manufacturing Index came out on Monday

Last month, in July the Index was 3.86% - a low number

The consensus for August was a slight improvement to 4.75%

We actually got -14.92%

This is the lowest number since April of 2009 and the biggest miss since 2010

The Fed is worried that there is not enough inflation

There's not enough growth and the job market is not there yet

If the Fed is further away from their goal than they have been in this ridiculous monetary experiment of zero percent interest rates and quantitative easing

Walmart earnings are down - blaming weak earnings on the strong dollar

How much weaker will their earnings be with a weak dollar?

Americans are spending more money on food - inflation that is not being measured

The Stock Market is still selling off, because a rate hike is not priced in, as it is in the currency markets

This would be the first Fed rate hike in a decelerating economy

This is not a normal period, so don't expect the stock market to behave normally

Now, people are now starting to figure out that the Fed's process is not so smooth

The stock market will trend down until the Fed comes clean and admits that it cannot raise rates

This is just a lag between QE3 AND QE4

Anything that can go wrong, will go wrong and when it comes to this Fed and this monetary policy, Murphy is going to look like an optimist

* On Friday we finally got the Non-Farm Payroll numbers for July

* The consensus is that this reports indicates that an interest rate hike is inevitable

* This is the rate hike that everybody has been expecting and this report see

* The report is weak, relative to previous months, but slightly ahead of the consensus

* It seems like we are going in the wrong direction

* Labor Force Participation Rate is stagnant at the lowest in decades

* Q2 GDP was much lower than expected

* the Atlanta GDP Now Forecast for Q3 at 1% - a third of the official forecast

* If the Fed was not willing to raise rates last year, when the economy grew at 5%, why would they raise rates now?

* The Fed may have backed themselves into a corner where they have to raise rates

* If so, Yellen has already prepared the market for a tiny raise

* They recognize that the market is fragile

* It would be a more credible move for the Fed to not raise rates at all

* The market's reaction to the jobs data and the "certainty" that rates are going up

* The dollar sold off somewhat

* Gold rose slightly

* Higher interest rages are expected to be bullish for the dollar - Why didn't the dollar rise?

* The old adage, "Buy on the rumor, sell on the fact"

* If the Fed raises rates in September, it will be the most highly anticipated rate hike ever

* If the market buys on the anticipation of a rate hike, the actual rate hike will be the sell signal

* The market is telling us it has gained all that it is going to gain from any future rate hike

* The Fed will deliver much less in the way of rate hike than the market expects

* The reaction in the stock market was more interesting - The market was down again

* The longest losing streak in the Dow in about 4 years

* The fact that the U.S stock market is still falling indicates whereas the currency markets may have factored in a rate hike, the equity markets have not

* I have been hearing the refrain,"There is no reason to fear a rate hike!"

* This is a very naive to look at the market because there is no historical precedent for interest rates to stay low for so long

* These are not "normal" times

* More importantly, the market only expects a rate hike if the economy get better

* But now the data shows that the economy is continuing to slow down

* The crowd that believes a rate hike will not harm the economy should reassess their thinking

* Corporate earnings, already under pressure will be further weakened by an interest rate hike

* The consumer is barely surviving with rates at zero

* 2015 is probably going to be the weakest year of the entire so-called recovery

* If the Fed really begins to raise interest rates, what is going to happen in 2016?

* We will be in a bear market, the real estate market will drop and a recession will follow

* The Fed's only medicine at that point will be QE

* The truth is, the economy did not need the first round of QE and it nees QE4 even less

* This is going to be the mother of all money drops and all the people who have been saying,"The Fed was right!" are taking a premature victory lap

* Hopefully it will shock the Keynesians into abandoning central banking and central planning

* And finally embracing a real market recovery based on free market principles

* Those of us who have seen the writing on the wall will be rewarded in the investment front

* For having the fortitude to maintain our positions and not throw in a winning hand


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On Friday we finally got the Non-Farm Payroll numbers for July

The consensus is that this reports indicates that an interest rate hike is inevitable

This is the rate hike that everybody has been expecting and this report see

The report is weak, relative to previous months, but slightly ahead of the consensus

It seems like we are going in the wrong direction

Labor Force Participation Rate is stagnant at the lowest in decades

Q2 GDP was much lower than expected

the Atlanta GDP Now Forecast for Q3 at 1% - a third of the official forecast

If the Fed was not willing to raise rates last year, when the economy grew at 5%, why would they raise rates now?

The Fed may have backed themselves into a corner where they have to raise rates

If so, Yellen has already prepared the market for a tiny raise

They recognize that the market is fragile

It would be a more credible move for the Fed to not raise rates at all

The market's reaction to the jobs data and the "certainty" that rates are going up

The dollar sold off somewhat

Gold rose slightly

Higher interest rages are expected to be bullish for the dollar - Why didn't the dollar rise?

The old adage, "Buy on the rumor, sell on the fact"

If the Fed raises rates in September, it will be the most highly anticipated rate hike ever

If the market buys on the anticipation of a rate hike, the actual rate hike will be the sell signal

The market is telling us it has gained all that it is going to gain from any future rate hike

The Fed will deliver much less in the way of rate hike than the market expects

The reaction in the stock market was more interesting - The market was down again

The longest losing streak in the Dow in about 4 years

The fact that the U.S stock market is still falling indicates whereas the currency markets may have factored in a rate hike, the equity markets have not

I have been hearing the refrain,"There is no reason to fear a rate hike!"

This is a very naive to look at the market because there is no historical precedent for interest rates to stay low for so long

These are not "normal" times

More importantly, the market only expects a rate hike if the economy get better

But now the data shows that the economy is continuing to slow down

The crowd that believes a rate hike will not harm the economy should reassess their thinking

Corporate earnings, already under pressure will be further weakened by an interest rate hike

The consumer is barely surviving with rates at zero

2015 is probably going to be the weakest year of the entire so-called recovery

If the Fed really begins to raise interest rates, what is going to happen in 2016?

We will be in a bear market, the real estate market will drop and a recession will follow

The Fed's only medicine at that point will be QE

The truth is, the economy did not need the first round of QE and it nees QE4 even less

This is going to be the mother of all money drops and all the people who have been saying,"The Fed was right!" are taking a premature victory lap

Hopefully it will shock the Keynesians into abandoning central banking and central planning

And finally embracing a real market recovery based on free market principles

Those of us who have seen the writing on the wall will be rewarded in the investment front

For having the fortitude to maintain our positions and not throw in a winning hand

* One piece of positive economic news ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for July surged to 60.3 - highest number in 10 years

* The ADP Employment Report came in at 185,000 jobs, well below the consensus

* June Trade Deficit rose 7.1% - in line with expectations

* June Layoffs rose to 105,696 biggest layoff number in 6 years

* Consumer Comfort Index down to 40.3 second lowest number since November

* The Atlanta Fed dropped a bombshell forecasting Q3 at just 1%

* Given this slowdown, could we possibly have a rate hike?

* The stock market has had 6 consecutive down days

* The stocks with no earnings are doing the best

* Very reminiscent of the dot com era

* The "story stocks" are selling in 2015

* Companies that actually have earnings are experiencing the greatest pressure on their share price

* Every time we have a dip in the stock market, the Fed always comes to the rescue

* Why wait until the economy is slowing down to raise rates?

* They can't do that this time, unless they want to abandon their rate hike rhetoric

* They will have to take the rate hikes off the table

* Janet Yellen continues to say rate hikes are data dependent

* The data has been bad for quite a while

* The economy is growing at the slowest pace of the entire "recovery"

* All the Fed can do is go back to the drawing board with more QE, because they can't admit that it never worked

* The money printing is just getting started

* Not that it is going to work, but it is the only policy remedy the Fed has

* Some stocks are really getting beaten up as earnings continue to disappoint

* This topping pattern has got to worry the Fed

* Any rate hike will accelerate the decline

* We have a stock market bubble and raising rates will prick that bubble

* Ben Bernanke created the stock market bubble thinking the "wealth effect" would cure the economy

* Bernanke would not acknowledge that bubbles weaken the economy because it was not politically advantageous

* The First Republican Debate was held tonight, so please follow me on Twitter for my comments

* Donald Trump is far and away the leader in the polls and he is one of the few candidates who have been critical of the Fed

* The only other candidate in the race who knows anything about the Fed is Rand Paul

* Tomorrow could be a big day - the question is, if we get a bad jobs number, will we finally have a reaction in the currency markets?

 

Our Sponsors:
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One piece of positive economic news ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for July surged to 60.3 - highest number in 10 years

The ADP Employment Report came in at 185,000 jobs, well below the consensus

June Trade Deficit rose 7.1% - in line with expectations

June Layoffs rose to 105,696 biggest layoff number in 6 years

Consumer Comfort Index down to 40.3 second lowest number since November

The Atlanta Fed dropped a bombshell forecasting Q3 at just 1%

Given this slowdown, could we possibly have a rate hike?

The stock market has had 6 consecutive down days

The stocks with no earnings are doing the best

Very reminiscent of the dot com era

The "story stocks" are selling in 2015

Companies that actually have earnings are experiencing the greatest pressure on their share price

Every time we have a dip in the stock market, the Fed always comes to the rescue

Why wait until the economy is slowing down to raise rates?

They can't do that this time, unless they want to abandon their rate hike rhetoric

They will have to take the rate hikes off the table

Janet Yellen continues to say rate hikes are data dependent

The data has been bad for quite a while

The economy is growing at the slowest pace of the entire "recovery"

All the Fed can do is go back to the drawing board with more QE, because they can't admit that it never worked

The money printing is just getting started

Not that it is going to work, but it is the only policy remedy the Fed has

Some stocks are really getting beaten up as earnings continue to disappoint

This topping pattern has got to worry the Fed

Any rate hike will accelerate the decline

We have a stock market bubble and raising rates will prick that bubble

Ben Bernanke created the stock market bubble thinking the "wealth effect" would cure the economy

Bernanke would not acknowledge that bubbles weaken the economy because it was not politically advantageous

The First Republican Debate was held tonight, so please follow me on Twitter for my comments

Donald Trump is far and away the leader in the polls and he is one of the few candidates who have been critical of the Fed

The only other candidate in the race who knows anything about the Fed is Rand Paul

Tomorrow could be a big day - the question is, if we get a bad jobs number, will we finally have a reaction in the currency markets?

* This is my 100th Podcast

* This new format allows for timely analysis when is is most convenient for me and for you, the listener

* Please share these podcasts, to get this valuable information out

* My podcasts can be accessed on YouTube, on iTunes and other podcast sites and right here on my website

* Also don't forget to check out my Twitter feed, because I comment much more frequently on daily economic news

* Check out my post on Facebook about the CEO who established a $70,000 minimum salary for all his workers, and the latest news is that his policy is about to take the company down

* Today a bombshell was dropped on the labor markets on Friday in the form of Employment Cost Index

* Measures the cost to employers: wages and benefits

* The expected increase was .6, but the actual number came in at just .2 for the quarter

* This the weakest number since 1982, since they began keeping records

* Janet Yellen has been saying that improvements in the labor market must precede a rate hike

* This is understood to mean wages, labor participation rate and full time vs part time jobs

* We're 0 for three, right now - all three are falling

* As soon as this number came out, they dollar sold hard

* But then, the dollar clawed its way back, and gold was down again - gold stocks got crushed - Why?

* Jon Hilsenrath, the chief economics correspondent for The Wall Street Journal, came out with an article, speaking for the Fed, stating that the Fed does not need wage growth to hike rates

* Really? The Fed is going out of its way to preserve the pretense that it can actually raise rates

* They are seeking the psychological effect of rate hikes without the real world damage of actual rate hikes

* If the Fed still believes it won't raise rates unless the labor market improves and they are taking wage hikes off the table, then what are they waiting for?

* The other two remaining criteria are still down

* Janet Yellen still says she's data dependent and all the data that she is depending on is negative

* The stock market looks very toppy - it looks like it will roll over and when it does the Fed will bring in the cavalry in the form of stimulus

* The Fed built the recovery on a stock market bubble and a real estate bubble

* Ben Bernanke's goal for 7 years was to create a "wealth effect" on assets that are now at risk - they are not going to let them collapse

* All of the data would argue for no rate hike in September

* Janet Yellen is implying, by talking about rate hikes, that she believes that the economy is going to improve, when all signs indicate the opposite

* Therefore traders are ignoring bad economic data because they trust that Janet Yellen believes the economy will improve soon

* Don't pay any attention to the man behind the curtain, because Janet Yellen says the bad news is not real

* We can all see the negative data, but no one wants to acknowledge it because Janet Yellen is not recognizing it publicly

* They buy the dollar, they sell gold and there is a dichotomy between those who don't own gold and have no ability to deliver it and are selling gold to those who don't actually want it - they are gambling on the price of gold

* The amount of gold being gambled is greater than ever before

* Sales for those who want to hold gold are skyrocketing - the mints are running out of supply

* We are running out of some of our silver

* Schiff Gold

* Our customers who buy gold and silver are not offering to sell - they are buying more

* They are reacting to lower prices

* On the other side of the coin, clients are reacting negatively to the high dollar weighing on the relative value of foreign stocks

Our Sponsors:
* Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.com
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Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

This is my 100th Podcast

This new format allows for timely analysis when is is most convenient for me and for you, the listener

Please share these podcasts, to get this valuable information out

My podcasts can be accessed on YouTube, on iTunes and other podcast sites and right here on my website

Also don't forget to check out my Twitter feed, because I comment much more frequently on daily economic news

Check out my post on Facebook about the CEO who established a $70,000 minimum salary for all his workers, and the latest news is that his policy is about to take the company down

Today a bombshell was dropped on the labor markets on Friday in the form of Employment Cost Index

Measures the cost to employers: wages and benefits

The expected increase was .6, but the actual number came in at just .2 for the quarter

This the weakest number since 1982, since they began keeping records

Janet Yellen has been saying that improvements in the labor market must precede a rate hike

This is understood to mean wages, labor participation rate and full time vs part time jobs

We're 0 for three, right now - all three are falling

As soon as this number came out, they dollar sold hard

But then, the dollar clawed its way back, and gold was down again - gold stocks got crushed - Why?

Jon Hilsenrath, the chief economics correspondent for The Wall Street Journal, came out with an article, speaking for the Fed, stating that the Fed does not need wage growth to hike rates

Really? The Fed is going out of its way to preserve the pretense that it can actually raise rates

They are seeking the psychological effect of rate hikes without the real world damage of actual rate hikes

If the Fed still believes it won't raise rates unless the labor market improves and they are taking wage hikes off the table, then what are they waiting for?

The other two remaining criteria are still down

Janet Yellen still says she's data dependent and all the data that she is depending on is negative

The stock market looks very toppy - it looks like it will roll over and when it does the Fed will bring in the cavalry in the form of stimulus

The Fed built the recovery on a stock market bubble and a real estate bubble

Ben Bernanke's goal for 7 years was to create a "wealth effect" on assets that are now at risk - they are not going to let them collapse

All of the data would argue for no rate hike in September

Janet Yellen is implying, by talking about rate hikes, that she believes that the economy is going to improve, when all signs indicate the opposite

Therefore traders are ignoring bad economic data because they trust that Janet Yellen believes the economy will improve soon

Don't pay any attention to the man behind the curtain, because Janet Yellen says the bad news is not real

We can all see the negative data, but no one wants to acknowledge it because Janet Yellen is not recognizing it publicly

They buy the dollar, they sell gold and there is a dichotomy between those who don't own gold and have no ability to deliver it and are selling gold to those who don't actually want it - they are gambling on the price of gold

The amount of gold being gambled is greater than ever before

Sales for those who want to hold gold are skyrocketing - the mints are running out of supply

We are running out of some of our silver

Schiff Gold

Our customers who buy gold and silver are not offering to sell - they are buying more

They are reacting to lower prices

On the other side of the coin, clients are reacting negatively to the high dollar weighing on the relative value of foreign stocks

This is an opportunity to use the high dollar to buy much more highly valued stocks that are not dollar denominated

The dollar bubble will burst and it is a dangerous game to hold out to the very end.

From a market point of view, the foreign stocks we recommended years ago are an even better value now, because the dollar will buy more

* This morning we got the first look at Q2 GDP

* Q1 had been reported most recently at -.2

* Everybody was looking for an upward revision due to the double seasonal adjustments

* The revision brought Q1 into the black, but only by .6

* Q2 expectation was 2.9; instead it came in at 2.3

* I had mentioned that at best, Q2 GDP would be in the low 2's, which is what we have

* After revisions, however, we could end up at below 2 for Q2

* Wall Street and the Fed were too optimistic about Q2

* Now previous GDP years have been revised, with the net effect of lowering U.S. GDP growth almost 1 percentage point for the past three years

* After revisions, the average growth rate is 2% per year

* 2015 Q1 & Q2 average GDP growth rate is just 1.45%

* The worst first half of the "recovery"

* What is the point of raising rates now, when the economy is at its weakest?

* The Fed is still waiting to see improvements in the labor market

* Unemployment is low

* The Fed is waiting to see increases in wage growth and in labor force participation

* It is unlikely that there will be more part-time workers finding full time jobs

* The Fed is still putting on a show, pretending that a rate hike will be appropriats

* This recovery is the weakest recovery in the modern era, since WWII

* We have had the most Keynesian monetary stimulus ever

* The Keynesians will not consider that their policies are an economic sedative

* Even though this is the biggest economic ever, the Keynesians still want more

* Redbook Year-Over-Year Same Store Sales rose by just 1%

* Last year, the year-over-year growth was 3%

* Pundits blame poor retail sales on "hot weather"

* People aren't shopping because they aren't making enough money

* The U.S. home ownership rate fell to a new low of 63.4%

* The result of government efforts to increase home ownership is the the lowest rate since 1967

* Rental prices are at an all time record high

* July Consumer Confidence plunged from 99.8 in June to 90.9 in July

* As evidence continues to pour in that the U.S. economy is weaker than the government and the press report, the dollar remains high

* Gold is not getting a rally from the economic news

* Shorting of gold by speculators is a dangerous game, as there is no indication that the price of gold overvalued

* It's not the traders who are buying gold. It's the strong, long-term holders that are doing all the buying


Our Sponsors:
* Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.com
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This morning we got the first look at Q2 GDP

Q1 had been reported most recently at -.2

Everybody was looking for an upward revision due to the double seasonal adjustments

The revision brought Q1 into the black, but only by .6

Q2 expectation was 2.9; instead it came in at 2.3

I had mentioned that at best, Q2 GDP would be in the low 2's, which is what we have

After revisions, however, we could end up at below 2 for Q2

Wall Street and the Fed were too optimistic about Q2

Now previous GDP years have been revised, with the net effect of lowering U.S. GDP growth almost 1 percentage point for the past three years

After revisions, the average growth rate is 2% per year

2015 Q1 & Q2 average GDP growth rate is just 1.45%

The worst first half of the "recovery"

What is the point of raising rates now, when the economy is at its weakest?

The Fed is still waiting to see improvements in the labor market

Unemployment is low

The Fed is waiting to see increases in wage growth and in labor force participation

It is unlikely that there will be more part-time workers finding full time jobs

The Fed is still putting on a show, pretending that a rate hike will be appropriats

This recovery is the weakest recovery in the modern era, since WWII

We have had the most Keynesian monetary stimulus ever

The Keynesians will not consider that their policies are an economic sedative

Even though this is the biggest economic ever, the Keynesians still want more

Redbook Year-Over-Year Same Store Sales rose by just 1%

Last year, the year-over-year growth was 3%

Pundits blame poor retail sales on "hot weather"

People aren't shopping because they aren't making enough money

The U.S. home ownership rate fell to a new low of 63.4%

The result of government efforts to increase home ownership is the the lowest rate since 1967

Rental prices are at an all time record high

July Consumer Confidence plunged from 99.8 in June to 90.9 in July

As evidence continues to pour in that the U.S. economy is weaker than the government and the press report, the dollar remains high

Gold is not getting a rally from the economic news

Shorting of gold by speculators is a dangerous game, as there is no indication that the price of gold overvalued

It's not the traders who are buying gold. It's the strong, long-term holders that are doing all the buying

* The Dow Jones had its worst week since January - closed the week at 17,568, down 518 points

* Friday's drop alone accounted for 163 points

* Capital One had a huge earnings miss and announced big layoffs

* Big losses on bad debt

* All the economic data from this year has been negative

* There is no precedent for the Fed to raise rates when all economic indicators are down

* Normally The Fed stimulates when the economy is down

* The most interesting economic news on Friday was a leak from the Federal Reserve

* Fed employees' internal projections are way below the Fed's public estimates

* Projections go all the way out to 2020 and can only amount to guesses

* The document is posted on my Facebook page

* Real GDP: 2015: 2.31 way below the official forecast but still overly optimistic

* Real GDP for 2016: 2.38 - 2017: 2.17 - 2018:1.76 - 2019:1.75 - 2020:1.74

* This shows an average of under 2% for the next 5 years

* If the Fed believes its staff's estimates, why would they be talking about raising rates?

* Inflation numbers are even more difficult to believe:

* 2015: 1.15 - 2016: 1.54 - 2017:1.76 - 2018:1.89 - 2019: 1.92 - 2020: 1.94

* How can they possibly know? It looks like they just picked numbers somewhere below 2%

* They even have the core PCE

* 2015: 1.33 - 2016: 1.52 - 2017: 1.78 - 2018: 1.9 - 2019: 1.92 - 2020: 1.94

* Fed Funds Numbers:

* 2015: .35%(implies one rate hike) - 2016: 1.26% - 2017: 2.12% - 2018: 2.8% - 2019: 3.1% - 202 : 3.34%

* After 5 years of tightening rates would still be at historically low levels

* This indicates how little confidence the Fed has in the economy

* They predict the yield on the 10-year note to rise 2.63% in 2015 up to 4.2 in 5 years

* One of the most ridiculous assumptions is unemployment: 2015: 5.34% - 2016: 5.24% - 2017: 5.18 - 2018: 5.15 - 2019: 5.15 - 2020: 5.16

* These are all just guesses. How do they know?

* This shows by the Fed's own estimates that employment is not expected to improve

* Th

* The Fed expects the economy to grow even slower over the next 5 years than during the preceding 5 years

* The Fed is either ignoring staff's numbers to paint a rosy picture or they don't trust their own staff

* I think the market can't handle the truth and that may have been the reason for Friday'd drop in the Dow

* The only thing that will stop the market from going down is some talk from Janet Yellen to dial back the rate hikes and to open the door to QE4

* Another number that came out on Friday which confirms the slowdown in the economy is the new home sales

* The current rise in new home sales is primarily for those trying to beat the Fed

* June's number was awful: 482,000 against an expectation of 550,000

* The last 2 month's estimates were revised down

* The July plunge was the biggest number since November of 2014, and the biggest miss in a year

* There is also an interesting statistic on new homes: prices are continuing to rise

* It now requires 10 times your salary to buy a new home

* In the 1950's it took 2 times a year's salary to buy a new home

* All the government spending on "affordable housing" has managed to increase the cost of a home from twice a worker's salary to ten times a worker's salary

* That is a 500% increase - that is far beyond failure

* This also illustrates how much our standard of living has fallen

* New York State passed a minimum wage of $15/hr, which applies to chains of over 30 restaurants

* Because employers cannot be forced to pay wages higher than workers' productivity allows, employers will be forced to fire some employees and will seek automation to replace unskilled workers.

Our Sponsors:
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