The Peter Schiff Show Podcast

By Peter Schiff

Peter Schiff is an economist, financial broker/dealer, author, frequent guest on national news, and host of the Peter Schiff Show Podcast. The podcast focuses on economic data analysis and unbiased

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How many episodes does The Peter Schiff Show Podcast have?

The podcast currently has 1,827 episodes available.

The Peter Schiff Show Podcast episodes:

May 17, 2015 Fewer Hires Means Fewer Fires – Ep. 83

* S&P responds to bad news with new high; DJ just barely off record high
* Dollar continues to fall
* The currency traders still have not accepted the significance of bad news
* Lower dollar will be the trend
* Friday got a trifecta of bad economic news
* Thursday Weekly Jobless Claims number declined to 264,000 - lowest weekly jobless claims in 42 years
* Why are there so few job losses? Because so few people are getting hired
* Government numbers come from the Birth/Death Model, which assumes a certain number of businesses created each month
* What if these businesses are not actually created?
* This would explain lower number of unemployment claims
* There's no way we can say that the economy is the best it has been in 42 years
* Empire State Manufacturing Index, which was weak last month, expected to be +5, came in at 3.09; below estimate for the 4th month in a row
* Both Business Expectations and Hiring declined from April to May
* Industrial Production Capacity Utilization was expected to be flat; down again .3%
* This is not the 5th consecutive monthly decline in Industrial Production; longest losing streak since 2009
* Consumer Sentiment Number 95.9 in April - expected to hold steady - came in at 88.6; biggest drop since December 2012, and biggest miss ever
* If the job market is so strong, why is confidence plunging?
* The percentage of employees who fear losing their jobs is at highest level since March of 2009
* The bubble is rapidly deflating
* Unofficially, I think we have been in recession for the entire "recovery"
* The government is not accurately measuring inflation in the GDP deflator
* The Fed has not forecast a single recession
* Recessions always happen contrary to forecasts
* If we are in a recession there can not be a rate hike
* At some point they are going to have to acknowledge that the numbers are not accurate
* The unemployment rate is going to have to tick up at soe point this year
* At some point after the end of the quarter it will become obvious that there is no rate hike coming
* The only question is, What is the Fed going to do?
* The Fed has not managed to shrink the balance sheet, and further QE will take the deficit to a whole new level
* This will put massive downward pressure on the dollar
* Oil prices will spike
* Cheap gas prices did not create a bounce in Q1
* Consumer Confidence will plunge
* Reality is finally going to set in on the failure of the Fed monetary policy

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21min
May 17, 2015 Fewer Hires Means Fewer Fires – Ep. 83
S&P responds to bad news with new high; DJ just barely off record high
Dollar continues to fall
The currency traders still have not accepted the significance of bad news
Lower dollar will be the trend
Friday got a trifecta of bad economic news
Thursday Weekly Jobless Claims number declined to 264,000 - lowest weekly jobless claims in 42 years
Why are there so few job losses? Because so few people are getting hired
Government numbers come from the Birth/Death Model, which assumes a certain number of businesses created each month
What if these businesses are not actually created?
This would explain lower number of unemployment claims
There's no way we can say that the economy is the best it has been in 42 years
Empire State Manufacturing Index, which was weak last month, expected to be +5, came in at 3.09; below estimate for the 4th month in a row
Both Business Expectations and Hiring declined from April to May
Industrial Production Capacity Utilization was expected to be flat; down again .3%
This is not the 5th consecutive monthly decline in Industrial Production; longest losing streak since 2009
Consumer Sentiment Number 95.9 in April - expected to hold steady - came in at 88.6; biggest drop since December 2012, and biggest miss ever
If the job market is so strong, why is confidence plunging?
The percentage of employees who fear losing their jobs is at highest level since March of 2009
The bubble is rapidly deflating
Unofficially, I think we have been in recession for the entire "recovery"
The government is not accurately measuring inflation in the GDP deflator
The Fed has not forecast a single recession
Recessions always happen contrary to forecasts
If we are in a recession there can not be a rate hike
At some point they are going to have to acknowledge that the numbers are not accurate
The unemployment rate is going to have to tick up at soe point this year
At some point after the end of the quarter it will become obvious that there is no rate hike coming
The only question is, What is the Fed going to do?
The Fed has not managed to shrink the balance sheet, and further QE will take the deficit to a whole new level
This will put massive downward pressure on the dollar
Oil prices will spike
Cheap gas prices did not create a bounce in Q1
Consumer Confidence will plunge
Reality is finally going to set in on the failure of the Fed monetary policy
...more
21min
May 14, 2015 U.S. Economy Teetering on the Brink of Recession – Ep 82

* Another week and another round of bad economic news
* Wall Street may be finally paying attention
* JOLT Report projected at 5.158 million; came in at 4.994 million
* April Retail Sales expected to rise .2%; came in flat
* X Automobiles expected an increase of .5, actual number was .1
* Beneath the surface there was a collapse in retail sales in all areas except groceries
* Weakest year over year increase in retail sales since 2009
* Department Store Sales experienced the biggest drop since January 2014
* A look beneath the headlines of the jobs numbers reveals that the jobs are not good jobs
* The Birth/Death Model assumption added 175,000 jobs to the last jobs report
* These numbers came from a biased source
* The fact that there is no spending is evidence that the job market is not as robust as the numbers claim
* Jobs numbers can be made up but retail sales can't
* Wall Street is surprised that we have weak data because they believe we are experiencing job growth
* March Business Inventories up .1% versus expectation of .2%
* February Business Inventories was revised down from .3% to .2%
* I estimate that Q1 GDP will contract by greater than 1%
* The Atlanta Fed just revised down their Q2 GDP estimate to .7, which would indicate the U.S. economy contracted for the first half of the year
* The Fed is still looking for 3% rise in GDP for 2015, which would mean we would need growth of 6% for the last half of the year
* It is more likely that we will get a negative number again for Q2
* Two consecutive contracting quarters will indicate an official recession
* If we are in a recession, the Fed will not raise rates and is more likely to respond with stimulus
* I predicted that a pause in QE3 would trigger another recession
* When the Fed is unable to raise rates to stimulate the economy, the only trick they will have up their sleeve will be QE4
* When that happens, the moves we saw today in the FOREX and Precious Metals markets will look tame by comparison
* The dollar has already broken its uptrend
* Europe, with the exception of Greece is experiencing growth in GDP, and Great Britain is doing better than Europe, because they shrunk their government instead of applying stimulus
* What we are going to get next is old-fashioned Keynesian, pump-priming stimulus
* Will that give us economic growth? Not a chance.
* The last three rounds of QE didn't give us economic growth and neither will the next one
* It may blow more air into the stock market bubble, but the air is going to come out of the dollar bubble even faster
* Where is the Fed's balance sheet going to be at the end of QE4? It is 4.5 trillion right now.
* How can anyone possibly believe Janet Yellen when she says she is going to shrink the balance sheet?
* Are creditors are going to get wise and there is going to be a run on the dollar
* You can see the beginnings of it today
* The dollar was down across the board
* Gold was back to about $1,250; every time it gets to this level it gets knocked down by short-sellers, but eventually they are going to have to give up
* All this bad economic data is going to sink in
* It is not the weather
* The market still has to adjust for the reality that the economy is really weak
* The Fed will not admit that QE didn't work, so in the face of recession they will have to do it again

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...more
20min
May 14, 2015 U.S. Economy Teetering on the Brink of Recession – Ep 82
Another week and another round of bad economic news
Wall Street may be finally paying attention
JOLT Report projected at 5.158 million; came in at 4.994 million
April Retail Sales expected to rise .2%; came in flat
X Automobiles expected an increase of .5, actual number was .1
Beneath the surface there was a collapse in retail sales in all areas except groceries
Weakest year over year increase in retail sales since 2009
Department Store Sales experienced the biggest drop since January 2014
A look beneath the headlines of the jobs numbers reveals that the jobs are not good jobs
The Birth/Death Model assumption added 175,000 jobs to the last jobs report
These numbers came from a biased source
The fact that there is no spending is evidence that the job market is not as robust as the numbers claim
Jobs numbers can be made up but retail sales can't
Wall Street is surprised that we have weak data because they believe we are experiencing job growth
March Business Inventories up .1% versus expectation of .2%
February Business Inventories was revised down from .3% to .2%
I estimate that Q1 GDP will contract by greater than 1%
The Atlanta Fed just revised down their Q2 GDP estimate to .7, which would indicate the U.S. economy contracted for the first half of the year
The Fed is still looking for 3% rise in GDP for 2015, which would mean we would need growth of 6% for the last half of the year
It is more likely that we will get a negative number again for Q2
Two consecutive contracting quarters will indicate an official recession
If we are in a recession, the Fed will not raise rates and is more likely to respond with stimulus
I predicted that a pause in QE3 would trigger another recession
When the Fed is unable to raise rates to stimulate the economy, the only trick they will have up their sleeve will be QE4
When that happens, the moves we saw today in the FOREX and Precious Metals markets will look tame by comparison
The dollar has already broken its uptrend
Europe, with the exception of Greece is experiencing growth in GDP, and Great Britain is doing better than Europe, because they shrunk their government instead of applying stimulus
What we are going to get next is old-fashioned Keynesian, pump-priming stimulus
Will that give us economic growth? Not a chance.
The last three rounds of QE didn't give us economic growth and neither will the next one
It may blow more air into the stock market bubble, but the air is going to come out of the dollar bubble even faster
Where is the Fed's balance sheet going to be at the end of QE4? It is 4.5 trillion right now.
How can anyone possibly believe Janet Yellen when she says she is going to shrink the balance sheet?
Are creditors are going to get wise and there is going to be a run on the dollar
You can see the beginnings of it today
The dollar was down across the board
Gold was back to about $1,250; every time it gets to this level it gets knocked down by short-sellers, but eventually they are going to have to give up
All this bad economic data is going to sink in
It is not the weather
The market still has to adjust for the reality that the economy is really weak
The Fed will not admit that QE didn't work, so in the face of recession they will have to do it again
...more
20min
May 08, 2015 The April Jobs Report and My Encounter With Ben Bernanke – Ep 81

* First official jobs report of Q2
* Wednesday's ADP private payrolls were below expectations
* March was revised down, indicating a softer labor market
* Challenger job cuts numbers well above previous month, biggest year over year increase in 10 years
* The jobs number came in at 222,000 jobs with unemployment down to 5.4%
* The media is spinning the headline number
* The picture underneath the jobs report is not as nice
* The March downward revision by 41,000 jobs causes one to question whether today's job number will be revised downward given all the negative underlying data
* The stock market recognized this; sensing the Fed will remain on pause
* Average Hourly Earnings increased only .1%, half expectations
* Numbers of Americans who have left the labor force is now at a record high
* When employers are changing the nature of the workforce replacing full time workers with part time workers it distorts the net number of jobs
* The Household Survey indicates the breakdown of full time vs. part time
* The government makes no such distinction
* In April we created 437,000 part time jobs - biggest gain in part time employment since last June
* The number of full time jobs declined by 252,000 - the biggest drop of the year
* The bad news of full time job loss is buried beneath the superficial layer of part time jobs
* The demographic breakdown indicates workers 55 and older gained 266,000 jobs in April
* Workers 25 - 54 lost 19,000 jobs
* This blows a hole in the notion that labor force participation is going down because of retiring baby boomers
* Other bad news to hit this quarter's GDP:
* Wholesale Trade numbers: inventories expected to rise by .3% but rose by .1% - smallest gain since March of 2013
* Wholesale Sales expected to break 3-month losing streak; instead increasing streak to biggest year over year decline since November of 2008
* Earlier in the week, Q1 Productivity down 1.9% following 2.1% decline last quarter
* Unit Labor Costs rose more than expected +5%
* Challenger numbers show a big explosion in layoffs
* The reality is that the economy is weakening rapidly
* The Fed and the media don't want to acknowledge this because they are afraid of how the market will react
* Recent encounter with Former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke
* Ben Bernanke was a speaker at the SALT conference
* I introduced myself to him after his presentation, told him "I am probably your biggest critic."
* He responded, "You have a lot of competition."
* Later that evening at a cocktail party I approached him and he offered to pose for a photo.
* Photo got more views and likes that most other photos on Facebook
* I tried to give him a cliff's notes version of my take on the Fed's part in the housing bubble
* Bernanke blamed regulations, Fannie & Freddie and the sub-prime mortgages
* I said the Fed created the conditions for Sub-Prime mortgages because low interest rates made them affordable
* I asked why he did not warn us in advance of the regulations, Fannie & Freddie and the Sub-Prime Mortgage business?
* Bernanke originally denied the housing bubble existed
* Ben Bernanke had no clue that the Fed's policies created the bubble even after it burst
* In hindsight, he lays blame on aspects of the market that he should have identified in advance
* I asked him, "how can can you be sure you were right, when interest rates are still at zero and the Fed's balance sheet still hasn't shrunk?
* Is there anything that might change your opinion that your decisions were right?
* He evaded the answer, but I believe he was sincere about his opinions
* Later that evening,

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31min
May 08, 2015 The April Jobs Report and My Encounter With Ben Bernanke – Ep 81
First official jobs report of Q2
Wednesday's ADP private payrolls were below expectations
March was revised down, indicating a softer labor market
Challenger job cuts numbers well above previous month, biggest year over year increase in 10 years
The jobs number came in at 222,000 jobs with unemployment down to 5.4%
The media is spinning the headline number
The picture underneath the jobs report is not as nice
The March downward revision by 41,000 jobs causes one to question whether today's job number will be revised downward given all the negative underlying data
The stock market recognized this; sensing the Fed will remain on pause
Average Hourly Earnings increased only .1%, half expectations
Numbers of Americans who have left the labor force is now at a record high
When employers are changing the nature of the workforce replacing full time workers with part time workers it distorts the net number of jobs
The Household Survey indicates the breakdown of full time vs. part time
The government makes no such distinction
In April we created 437,000 part time jobs - biggest gain in part time employment since last June
The number of full time jobs declined by 252,000 - the biggest drop of the year
The bad news of full time job loss is buried beneath the superficial layer of part time jobs
The demographic breakdown indicates workers 55 and older gained 266,000 jobs in April
Workers 25 - 54 lost 19,000 jobs
This blows a hole in the notion that labor force participation is going down because of retiring baby boomers
Other bad news to hit this quarter's GDP:
Wholesale Trade numbers: inventories expected to rise by .3% but rose by .1% - smallest gain since March of 2013
Wholesale Sales expected to break 3-month losing streak; instead increasing streak to biggest year over year decline since November of 2008
Earlier in the week, Q1 Productivity down 1.9% following 2.1% decline last quarter
Unit Labor Costs rose more than expected +5%
Challenger numbers show a big explosion in layoffs
The reality is that the economy is weakening rapidly
The Fed and the media don't want to acknowledge this because they are afraid of how the market will react
Recent encounter with Former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke
Ben Bernanke was a speaker at the SALT conference
I introduced myself to him after his presentation, told him "I am probably your biggest critic."
He responded, "You have a lot of competition."
Later that evening at a cocktail party I approached him and he offered to pose for a photo.
Photo got more views and likes that most other photos on Facebook
I tried to give him a cliff's notes version of my take on the Fed's part in the housing bubble
Bernanke blamed regulations, Fannie & Freddie and the sub-prime mortgages
I said the Fed created the conditions for Sub-Prime mortgages because low interest rates made them affordable
I asked why he did not warn us in advance of the regulations, Fannie & Freddie and the Sub-Prime Mortgage business?
Bernanke originally denied the housing bubble existed
Ben Bernanke had no clue that the Fed's policies created the bubble even after it burst
In hindsight, he lays blame on aspects of the market that he should have identified in advance
I asked him, "how can can you be sure you were right, when interest rates are still at zero and the Fed's balance sheet still hasn't shrunk?
Is there anything that might change your opinion that your decisions were right?
He evaded the answer, but I believe he was sincere about his opinions
Later that evening, people came up to me and commented that they appreciated the views, but that Ben Bernanke was strongly disagreeing with me
Bernanke will not hold the title of worst Fed Chairman because the worst is yet to come when Janet Yellen takes us into QE4
...more
31min
May 05, 2015 Bloom Rapidly Coming Off Recovery Rose – Ep 80

* Upcoming Appearances

* Thursday morning panel at the SkyBridge Capital SALT Conference in Las Vegas
* Liberty Forum - Salt Lake City
* MoneyShow - Las Vegas

* Economic News for the Week: March Factory Orders met expectations, but downwardly revised February number for 5th straight year-over-year monthly drop
* March Trade Deficit: $51.4 billion, a miss greater than $10 billion and the single worst trade deficit since October 2008 and largest monthly gain in nearly 20 years
* If the economy is so good, why do we have such a large trade deficit?
* Rising oil prices, along with other rising prices are putting additional pressure on consumers
* April U.S. Auto Sales fell, missing expectations for the 5th month in a row - sales at lowest year-over-year start since 2009
* The auto bubble has burst
* The United States has been spared the discipline of the market by virtue of the dollar being the reserve currency
* Gold is still just below $1,200/ounce - we will eventually run out of sellers who are keeping prices down, and when it goes up it will go up in a spectacular way
* Aussie dollar is up a percent and a quarter
* Canadian dollar up half a percent
* Euro up a third of a percent
* Swiss Franc up almost a full percent
* There was some good news: April ISM Service Non-Manufacturing Index rose, to 57.8, beating estimates
* New orders plunged into negative territory
* April PMI dropped from 59.2 in March to 57.4, a bigger drop than expected
* No one is looking for the April jobs number to be lower
* The consensus is also for unemployment to keep falling from 5.5% to 5.4%
* If we have all these jobs, why isn't the consumer spending?
* The answer is the jobs don't pay very much or the hours are reduced
* Meanwhile, as much as the Fed wants to pretend there is low inflation, the cost of living is rising
* The one safety net for the consumer was oil prices, and now that is gone

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21min
May 05, 2015 Bloom Rapidly Coming Off Recovery Rose – Ep 80
Upcoming Appearances
Thursday morning panel at the SkyBridge Capital SALT Conference in Las Vegas
Liberty Forum - Salt Lake City
MoneyShow - Las Vegas
Economic News for the Week: March Factory Orders met expectations, but downwardly revised February number for 5th straight year-over-year monthly drop
March Trade Deficit: $51.4 billion, a miss greater than $10 billion and the single worst trade deficit since October 2008 and largest monthly gain in nearly 20 years
If the economy is so good, why do we have such a large trade deficit?
Rising oil prices, along with other rising prices are putting additional pressure on consumers
April U.S. Auto Sales fell, missing expectations for the 5th month in a row - sales at lowest year-over-year start since 2009
The auto bubble has burst
The United States has been spared the discipline of the market by virtue of the dollar being the reserve currency
Gold is still just below $1,200/ounce - we will eventually run out of sellers who are keeping prices down, and when it goes up it will go up in a spectacular way
Aussie dollar is up a percent and a quarter
Canadian dollar up half a percent
Euro up a third of a percent
Swiss Franc up almost a full percent
There was some good news: April ISM Service Non-Manufacturing Index rose, to 57.8, beating estimates
New orders plunged into negative territory
April PMI dropped from 59.2 in March to 57.4, a bigger drop than expected
No one is looking for the April jobs number to be lower
The consensus is also for unemployment to keep falling from 5.5% to 5.4%
If we have all these jobs, why isn't the consumer spending?
The answer is the jobs don't pay very much or the hours are reduced
Meanwhile, as much as the Fed wants to pretend there is low inflation, the cost of living is rising
The one safety net for the consumer was oil prices, and now that is gone
...more
21min
May 02, 2015 Spring Has Sprung, But U.S. Economy Still Snowed In – Ep 79

* Markets on roller coaster ride final two trading days of this week
* Bad news parade marches on in April
* The players are still clinging to fantasy of U.S. economic recovery
* Dollar finished down substantially on the week - April was the first down month in 10 months
* Dollar has seen its highs and is heading lower
* Gold back below 1200
* Oil prices added to gains closed above $59 - moving opposite to the dollar
* Friday - March Personal Income & Spending flat below expectations
* Personal Spending also lower than expected; .4% gain
* Savings dropped from 5.7 to 5.3 - the lowest savings rate of the year
* April PMI Manufacturing Index - dropped more than expected to 54.1 even as weather warms
* ISM Manufacturing expected to rise to 52 - remained flat
* Employment Index dropped two points - the first drop in 2 years
* March Construction Spending fell by .6 missing expectations
* Atlanta Fed correctly forecasted Q1 GDP at .2, forecasting Q2 at .8
* Article on Zero Hedge: Goldman Sachs warning Europe about severe "Lowflation"
* Article in Bloomberg: Chinese can't "kick" savings habit
* Blames problem on "not enough government"
* The reason America is in so much trouble is that we don't save
* Once the Chinese have built up a cushion, then they will spend
* When our phony economy bursts, it will be apparent that we did not save enough and had too much debt
* America gives capitalism a bad name - we preach it but do not practice it
* We rely on a giant government-run ponzi scheme of socialized savings
* We are telling the Chinese they have too much free market capitalism
* We have been indulging our present and sacrificing our future
* The Chinese will be rewarded for their prudence
* The most ironic thing about the Bloomberg article is that they suggest Chinese would be better off under Communism

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30min
May 02, 2015 Will the Fed Run Out of Excuses as the Weather Warms?

* Government's first look at Q1 GDP
* There was a lot of optimism around Q1 with expectations above 3%
* Actual GDP was 1/5 of expectations at.2%
* The rest of the story of Q1 GDP:
* The deflator this time was negative - meaning that prices dropped by .1%
* The last time the deflator was negative was 2009 Q2; still in the Great Recession
* The previous occurrence of a negative deflator was in 1949
* I believe the true rate of inflation is higher than -.1%
* Inventory build continued into Q1 - businesses continue to believe the myth of the recovery
* Inventory to sales ratio are the highest they have been since the Great Recession
* They are still blaming poor economic performance on the weather. It is always cold in the winter; why is bad weather always a surprise?
* The Fed just released their official statement on interest rate policy
* They removed language from statement indicating it is unlikely that rates will rise
* Continuing give the illusion that they are progressing toward a point when they will raise interest rates
* The Fed went out of its way to dismiss all the bad economic news we got in Q1
* The dollar just had its biggest 2-day decline in 6 years
* The Fed came out and put a smiley face on the whole thing and the dollar recovered somewhat
* The Fed is never going to confess that they are worried; that's not their job
* What evidence is there that things will improve in Q2?
* Cheap gas windfall is over; oil prices have risen every week in the past month
* Early April economic data is negative
* An economy based on spending is a bubble; production grows an economy
* Consumers have lots of debt, but they don't have good jobs
* Decline in the dollar signals that the markets are already sensing this
* The Fed feels that economic growth will recover in Q2 & Q3
* They also said they need to see additional strength in the labor market
* Business are making foolish decisions because they believe the Fed
* As the economy disappoints, the labor market will continue to deteriorate
* The Fed can't raise interest rates and they are headed ror QE4
* We need more and more stimulus because we've built up a resistance
* The real crisis will be a dollar crisis
* When the economy heads south and the Fed has to do QE 4, the Fed will lose a lot of credibility
* Janet Yellen will not be able to deliver on her promise to shrink the balance sheet by the end of the decade

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24min

FAQs about The Peter Schiff Show Podcast:

How many episodes does The Peter Schiff Show Podcast have?

The podcast currently has 1,827 episodes available.

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