The Peter Schiff Show Podcast

Over the weekend the Greeks voted no to the Eurozone bailout terms

The Greeks ars still hoping for a better deal, hoping to avoid austerity

The irony is that the consequences of their vote will bring on even more austerity, as a return to the drachma will result in a lower-valued currency

For example, pensioners will be paid not in fewer euros but drachmas that buy less

This will mean a huge collapse in the standard of living in Greece - far worse than the "austerity" called for under the Eurozone bailout terms

There is no way out without substantive reforms, particularly in smaller government

The markets are reacting adversely because they want to extend and pretend

The euro will be stronger without Greece, despite comments in the press to the contrary

Fears of "contagion" - other countries leaving - are unfounded

Greece is headed for hardship, but they will have to impose austerity from within they could rebound

Greece has a lot of potential, they have natural resources and a thriving shipping industries

The secret of the success of the shipping industry is that it is not taxed

The answer will be fewer taxes and less government spending

Short term, leaving the Eurozone will be negative for Greece

The Greek vote will be positive for the euro

There is still a flight to the dollar for safety over gold

The reason gold has not benefited from Greek instability is that the dollar is still viewed as a safe haven

More and more economic data reveals how weak the U.S. Eeconomy is

This week the Service Sector PMI for June contracted from 56.8 in May to 54.8

More and more people are looking for a rate hike in December rather than September, but they are still buying the narrative that interest rate hikes are feasible

This belief supports the dollar over gold

Our economy is weaker than other countries whose interest rates are higher

When are the dollar buyers going to realize that they have jumped out of the frying pan into the fire?

The dollar is the grandaddy of the fiat currencies

In light of continued weak economic data and further deterioration in the job market, the Fed will have to come out with another round of QE

That will be a game changer

All the economic news around the world is fundamentally good for gold

At some point the speculative forces that are restraining gold will not hold up

All that stands behind the U.S. dollar is faith

At one point people had faith in Greece, they had faith in Puerto Rican government bonds and in sub-prime mortgages - and then they didn't

When we were on the gold standard, we had real value backing up our money

All that stands between us and economic collapse is the faith we have in a worthless piece of paper

* Happy 4th of July to everyone

* Unfortunately, we have given up our independence to government tyranny

* I will be back on the radio again - I'll be on the Alex Jones Show every first and third Friday of every month when the Non-Farm Payroll numbers come out

* I will be doing tomorrow's show - the second hour of the show

* The Non-Farm Payroll Report came out early this week because of the 4th of July holiday

* The consensus forecast of 230,000 jobs was close to the actual number 223,000

* The unemployment rate of 5.5% last month was expected to come in at 5$% - actually came in at 5.3%, the lowest unemployment rate in 7 years

* Great news, right? Not great news

* The devil is in the details

* The Labor Force Participation Rate - 62.9 last month - plunged down to 62.6%

* This is the lowest rate since 1977

* 432,000 people dropped out of the labor force in June - twice the number of people who got jobs in June

* Once again, these new jobs are low-paying service sector jobs

* During the Obama "recovery" we have lost 1.4 million manufacturing jobs and gained 1.4 million wait staff and bartender jobs

* According to the Household Survey 640,000 Americans left the labor force in June

* Now we have a record 93.6 million Americans no longer in the labor force

* The Household Survey reports 349,000 jobs were lost during the month

* The only net gain - 161,000 part time jobs - represent a net loss

* The Household Survey shows that we lost good jobs

* When asked about the Labor Force Participation Rate number, Secretary of Labor Perez commented, "One month does not a trend make."

* This trend has been going down every month of every year that President Obama has been in office

* Janet Yellen announced that the Fed would not start raising rates without "further improvement in the labor market"

* She specifically cited the Labor Force Participation Rate and proliferation of part-time jobs as troubling trends

* We are now further from that goal

* The demographic leaving the labor force are young people who cannot find jobs

* Average Hourly Earnings, to increase .2, actually came in flat, at zero

* Last month's .3 increase was revised down to .2, failing to beat the estimate

* Weekly Jobless Claims expected to come in at 270,000, actually came in at 281,000 and I think this number is going to go higher

* There have been fewer hires and fewer fires than expected because the estimates were based on the Birth/Death model, that is proving inaccurate

* Factory Orders are down for 9 of the last 10 months - this month we were looking for -.3% and we got -1%

* April was originally reported as -.4 but was revised down to -.7

* Year over year Factory Orders are down 6.3% (adjusted)

* The only time we have seen numbers this weak is during a recession

* The economy is in worse shape now that when QE3 was launched

* Yet the markets did not react to these bad numbers

* They still cling to the narrative that the Fed is going to raise rates because the U.S. economy is in good shape

* Article on Motley Fool refers to me as someone who was "right for the wrong reason"

* The misquoted me on my prediction on (mortgage)interest rates going up

* After I made that statement, interest rates did go up for 2 years - they did not go down until after the bubble burst

* The Fed raised interest rates from 1% to 5-1/2 percent

* This quote was taken out of context - read my 2007 book, "Crash Proof"

* There are dozens of articles about the real estate bubble 2004-2007

* The record shows that I was right for all the right reasons

* I did think the dollar would go down after the housing bubble burst,

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Happy 4th of July to everyone

Unfortunately, we have given up our independence to government tyranny

I will be back on the radio again - I'll be on the Alex Jones Show every first and third Friday of every month when the Non-Farm Payroll numbers come out

I will be doing tomorrow's show - the second hour of the show

The Non-Farm Payroll Report came out early this week because of the 4th of July holiday

The consensus forecast of 230,000 jobs was close to the actual number 223,000

The unemployment rate of 5.5% last month was expected to come in at 5$% - actually came in at 5.3%, the lowest unemployment rate in 7 years

Great news, right? Not great news

The devil is in the details

The Labor Force Participation Rate - 62.9 last month - plunged down to 62.6%

This is the lowest rate since 1977

432,000 people dropped out of the labor force in June - twice the number of people who got jobs in June

Once again, these new jobs are low-paying service sector jobs

During the Obama "recovery" we have lost 1.4 million manufacturing jobs and gained 1.4 million wait staff and bartender jobs

According to the Household Survey 640,000 Americans left the labor force in June

Now we have a record 93.6 million Americans no longer in the labor force

The Household Survey reports 349,000 jobs were lost during the month

The only net gain - 161,000 part time jobs - represent a net loss

The Household Survey shows that we lost good jobs

When asked about the Labor Force Participation Rate number, Secretary of Labor Perez commented, "One month does not a trend make."

This trend has been going down every month of every year that President Obama has been in office

Janet Yellen announced that the Fed would not start raising rates without "further improvement in the labor market"

She specifically cited the Labor Force Participation Rate and proliferation of part-time jobs as troubling trends

We are now further from that goal

The demographic leaving the labor force are young people who cannot find jobs

Average Hourly Earnings, to increase .2, actually came in flat, at zero

Last month's .3 increase was revised down to .2, failing to beat the estimate

Weekly Jobless Claims expected to come in at 270,000, actually came in at 281,000 and I think this number is going to go higher

There have been fewer hires and fewer fires than expected because the estimates were based on the Birth/Death model, that is proving inaccurate

Factory Orders are down for 9 of the last 10 months - this month we were looking for -.3% and we got -1%

April was originally reported as -.4 but was revised down to -.7

Year over year Factory Orders are down 6.3% (adjusted)

The only time we have seen numbers this weak is during a recession

The economy is in worse shape now that when QE3 was launched

Yet the markets did not react to these bad numbers

They still cling to the narrative that the Fed is going to raise rates because the U.S. economy is in good shape

Article on Motley Fool refers to me as someone who was "right for the wrong reason"

The misquoted me on my prediction on (mortgage)interest rates going up

After I made that statement, interest rates did go up for 2 years - they did not go down until after the bubble burst

The Fed raised interest rates from 1% to 5-1/2 percent

This quote was taken out of context - read my 2007 book, "Crash Proof"

There are dozens of articles about the real estate bubble 2004-2007

The record shows that I was right for all the right reasons

I did think the dollar would go down after the housing bubble burst, but by the time the bubble burst the dollar was at a record low

The mainstream media would like to discredit my earlier predictions in order to discount my current predictions

The higher interest rates I predicted have not happened yet because a dollar crisis will precede the rise in interest rates

The fact that we have delayed the day of reckoning for so long means that...

* One more time President Obama seeks to buy Democratic votes with a free lunch by appealing to workers

* Promising more overtime pay, to go into effect in 2016

* Raises the threshold for overtime pay requirements

* Workers who earn salaries of $50,000 or less must be paid overtime for hours worked over 40 hours per week

* This prevents workers who put in extra hours on their own time to try to advance

* This could cause employers to reduce salaries to factor in overtime

* It will be harder for employers to change existing work agreements

* This will adversely affect workers on flexible schedules, such as those who work at home in 2016

* Employers will have to seek more control over workers' schedules

* New law will disproportionately hurt women, the very constituency Democrats claim to protect

* Those who have variable workloads throughout the year will be adversely affected

* This law eliminates choice and increases costs, but it's great politics

* Followup on Puerto Rico: Minimum Wage

* Puerto Rico is an example of the adverse effects of a minimum wage law that has devastated an economy

* Puerto Rico's has more than 20% unemployment

* Puerto Rico labor force participation rate is 42-43%

* The minimum wage has priced out more than half of the labor force

* There is no entry level work in Puerto Rico

* If the minimum wage is so good, why does it not work in Puerto Rico?

* Puerto Rico is a real-life case study on the adverse effects of minimum wage laws

* Puerto Rico's only advantage is its tax law for incoming businesses which will increase demand for labor

* Recent comments on my last podcast questioned my support for Puerto Rico

* I never advised buying Puerto Rican debt - I knew it was a problem

* It makes sense to move to Puerto Rico to take advantage of the new tax laws


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One more time President Obama seeks to buy Democratic votes with a free lunch by appealing to workers

Promising more overtime pay, to go into effect in 2016

Raises the threshold for overtime pay requirements

Workers who earn salaries of $50,000 or less must be paid overtime for hours worked over 40 hours per week

This prevents workers who put in extra hours on their own time to try to advance

This could cause employers to reduce salaries to factor in overtime

It will be harder for employers to change existing work agreements

This will adversely affect workers on flexible schedules, such as those who work at home in 2016

Employers will have to seek more control over workers' schedules

New law will disproportionately hurt women, the very constituency Democrats claim to protect

Those who have variable workloads throughout the year will be adversely affected

This law eliminates choice and increases costs, but it's great politics

Followup on Puerto Rico: Minimum Wage

Puerto Rico is an example of the adverse effects of a minimum wage law that has devastated an economy

Puerto Rico's has more than 20% unemployment

Puerto Rico labor force participation rate is 42-43%

The minimum wage has priced out more than half of the labor force

There is no entry level work in Puerto Rico

If the minimum wage is so good, why does it not work in Puerto Rico?

Puerto Rico is a real-life case study on the adverse effects of minimum wage laws

Puerto Rico's only advantage is its tax law for incoming businesses which will increase demand for labor

Recent comments on my last podcast questioned my support for Puerto Rico

I never advised buying Puerto Rican debt - I knew it was a problem

It makes sense to move to Puerto Rico to take advantage of the new tax laws

* Global stock markets got beaten up overnight and the carnage continued here in the U.S.

* Dow Jones down 350 points by closing bell - biggest point loss of the year

* NASDAQ down 122 points

* Possible Grexit sparked sell off in FOREX markets

* Banks in Greece closing, sending masses to the ATM machines

* Euro ended up closing near the highs of the day - nearly to $113

* The dollar was weak all day against the Yen and against the Swiss Franc

* There was no safe haven move into the dollar - gold up

* The dollar lost considerable ground against the euro

* Another confirmation that the dollar's rally is over

* My newsletter released today does a good job comparing the U.S. vs global markets

* The U.S. did well against the international market from 1996 to 2000

* In 2008 the U.S markets went sideways and the markets I recommend skyrocketed

* We have been in a period similar to '96 - 2000 and now we are about to see returns even greater than the 2008 gains in our markets

* Regardless of the direction that Greece goes in this weekend's referendum, the dollar is going down against the euro

* Puerto Rican governor finally admitted the obvious - repaying their debt is impossible

* Puerto Rican debt is a fraction of the U.S. national debt

* If it is mathematically impossible for Puerto Rico to pay their debt, why does anyone think the U.S. will be able to eventually pay off its debt?

* The only way we can pretend to pay our debt is for the Fed to do it for us by creating inflation

* This is yet another reason why the Fed is not going to raise rates in September

* We continue to get recession-like economic data, despite the fact that the Fed is still optimistic

* The Federal Reserve is looking for an excuse to not raise interest rates

* Maybe the situation in Greece will provide that excuse

* Maybe it will be the volatility in China

* "External problems" are providing an excuse to not raise rates

* It is important to point out that Puerto Rico would not be experiencing such insurmountable debt if it were not for U.S. policy.

* Puerto Rican debt has seemed attractive with its high yield and triple-tax-exempt status

* Zero interest rates from the Fed, on top of high yields, have caused the debt to seem safe, even though mathematically it cannot be paid

* People may begin to wake up when they realize what's going on in Puerto Rico and that may become an even bigger problem than Greece


Our Sponsors:
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Global stock markets got beaten up overnight and the carnage continued here in the U.S.

Dow Jones down 350 points by closing bell - biggest point loss of the year

NASDAQ down 122 points

Possible Grexit sparked sell off in FOREX markets

Banks in Greece closing, sending masses to the ATM machines

Euro ended up closing near the highs of the day - nearly to $113

The dollar was weak all day against the Yen and against the Swiss Franc

There was no safe haven move into the dollar - gold up

The dollar lost considerable ground against the euro

Another confirmation that the dollar's rally is over

My newsletter released today does a good job comparing the U.S. vs global markets

The U.S. did well against the international market from 1996 to 2000

In 2008 the U.S markets went sideways and the markets I recommend skyrocketed

We have been in a period similar to '96 - 2000 and now we are about to see returns even greater than the 2008 gains in our markets

Regardless of the direction that Greece goes in this weekend's referendum, the dollar is going down against the euro

Puerto Rican governor finally admitted the obvious - repaying their debt is impossible

Puerto Rican debt is a fraction of the U.S. national debt

If it is mathematically impossible for Puerto Rico to pay their debt, why does anyone think the U.S. will be able to eventually pay off its debt?

The only way we can pretend to pay our debt is for the Fed to do it for us by creating inflation

This is yet another reason why the Fed is not going to raise rates in September

We continue to get recession-like economic data, despite the fact that the Fed is still optimistic

The Federal Reserve is looking for an excuse to not raise interest rates

Maybe the situation in Greece will provide that excuse

Maybe it will be the volatility in China

"External problems" are providing an excuse to not raise rates

It is important to point out that Puerto Rico would not be experiencing such insurmountable debt if it were not for U.S. policy.

Puerto Rican debt has seemed attractive with its high yield and triple-tax-exempt status

Zero interest rates from the Fed, on top of high yields, have caused the debt to seem safe, even though mathematically it cannot be paid

People may begin to wake up when they realize what's going on in Puerto Rico and that may become an even bigger problem than Greece

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[fusion_text]

In reviewing my Wikipedia page, I noticed some information that is either wrong or narrowly slanted to promote a negative impression of me. We've tried to correct the issue, but Wikipedia makes it very difficult for anyone directly connected to the person or subject of the page to make changes, claiming "Conflict of Interest". This opens the door, however, for those who have a good grasp of editing Wikipedia but who have a decided "left" slant to claim the substance and the direction of the information. Once it's out there, it is very difficult to fix. Wikipedia wants editors to be unrelated to the subject to make contributions. Below are a few things that should be added to the page. Please feel free to make these additions as you would like. Please note that changes need to be discussed in the "Talk" page, first. Here are Ten Simple Rules for Editing Wikipedia.

[/fusion_text][/one_full][one_full]

[title size="1" content_align="left" style_type="" sep_color="" class="" id=""]On Minimum Wage[/title][fusion_text]

Eliminate the minimum wage so teenagers and other low-skill workers can get jobs, and acquire the on-the-job training necessary to earn higher wages in the future. It should not be illegal for people who lack skills to accept employment. The minimum wage punishes workers by legally preventing them from offer their services below a specified legal minimum. If they do not have the skills to justify that minimum, it is illegal for them to work, even if they can offer some value to employers, just not enough to cover the minimum wage mandated by government. So instead of entry level jobs, that will lead to higher skills and wages in the future, many individuals are rendered legally unemployable. People have a right to accept any job that they personally prefer to unemployment. Government should not substitute its judgement for the judgment of workers.[/fusion_text][/one_full]

[title size="1" content_align="left" style_type="" sep_color="" class="" id=""]The Housing Market[/title][fusion_text]The government should stay out of housing completely. Abolish agencies that loan money or guarantee mortgages etc. no FHA, Fannie, Freddie. No Department of Housing and Urban Development. There should be a free market in housing. What I actually said on the home mortgage deduction was that, absent the repeal of the entire income tax, we should have a flat rate tax with no deductions including home mortgage, but that would include a much lower rate, so that the removal of the home mortgage deduction did not result in higher taxes. It just eliminates the government- created incentive to buy verses rent.[/fusion_text]

Peter Schiff Says The Real Financial C...

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Peter Schiff Says The Real Financial Crisis Is About to Hit ...

Peter Schiff: When Will the Dollar Bubble Burst? | Wall Street ...

The Real Crash: America's Coming Bankruptcy

My Mortgage Bankers Speech from Nov 13th 2006 is now in one video clip. I gave this presentation at the the Western Regional Mortgage Bankers Conference in Las Vegas. There were over 2,000 mortgage bankers in attendance. I also made similar comments when I addressed this conference a year earlier in 2005 at the height of the real estate bubble. For those people who said no one saw it coming, this presentation is a real eye opener.

Thanks to a YouTuber called "csabasand" here is a full transcript: http://www.csaba.se/2009/09/26/peter-...

What Obama Should Really Do To Spur Job Growth - Forbes, 9/13/2011

Peter Schiff On Obamanomics: "There Are Not Enough Open Minds In The Capitol To Keep This Ship From Sinking" - Zero Hedge - 09/19/2011

Peter Schiff, other members of the ‘1%,’ confront Occupy Wall Street, Washington Post - October 28, 2011

The Washington Examiner, September 6, 2012

This time, Schiff, a former Republican senate candidate in the state of Connecticut, traveled to the Democratic National Convention in Charlotte, North Carolina and went undercover. His disguise was an “anti-business crusader” and a person wanting to ban or place a cap on corporate profits. As he iterated this stance, he wanted to see how many people supported this move, which was actually quite a few.

The video titled "Democrats: Let's Ban Profits!" starts off with Schiff attempting to speak with Anthony Van Jones, but he claimed he didn’t have any time to speak with the bestselling author of “Crash Proof” and “The Real Crash.” It continued onto Schiff standing inside the DNC where he noted that there weren’t a lot of people, “maybe they’re all out looking for work. Actually, wait a minute, this is the Democratic Convention, they don’t want to work.”

Forbes Magazine, Dave Serchuk, Contributor 12/28/2011

Economist Arthur Laffer has had a long, distinguished career. Unfortunately one of the things that has distinguished it is that he has often been extremely wrong.

That’s why, in a new feature for this blog, I have Revoked Art Laffer’s Pundit License. ™

This means that everyone who reads this blog will understand that Laffer has been quite wrong about many things, and continues to appear on TV as if he had been right. Well, something has happened Mr. Laffer: you were caught being wrong. Now it’s time to ‘fess up if you want your Pundit License reinstated. Until it is reinstated you are strongly advised to not make grand, sweeping proclamations about the economy, or America’s political scene. The credibility you save might just be your own.

I will periodically revive this feature whenever I see pundits being completely wrong in public over long, extended periods of time, and suffering few if any repercussions.

Laffer is best known for his eponymously-named Laffer Curve, and made the case that lowering income taxes for the wealthy will generally create more revenue. This helped gain him entry into the Reagan White House, where he helped shape the idea known as “trickle-down economics.” The takeaway is that as you lower taxes on the wealthy they reinvest their cash back into the economy in infinite ways, enriching everyone. In this light the idea is that lower income taxes for the highest earner actually lead to more tax revenue for the federal government, in the end.

This video, originally posted in 2008 by an unknown individual, was viewed over 2 million times before being removed from YouTube in late 2013. I decided to post a copy so that those searching for the original video will at least be able to view this copy. However, I doubt it will receive the 2 million plus views garnered by the original. In addition, its worth remembering just how clueless everyone was about the artificial nature of the prior recovery an...

* It looks like there is going to be some kind of deal to avoid the "Grexit"

* Greek's exit would be great for Europe, but it would not be politically attractive for either side

* As long as Greece stays in the Eurozone, the Greek government can continue to blame Germany or Brussels for their problems

* So-called austerity will continue without any haircut to the debt

* The same is true for cuts to government spending

* The Greek government may increase taxes and/or adjust the retirement age for pension, but no government spending cuts are on the table

* Tax increases will provide more incentive for tax evasion or avoidance by leaving the country

* All talks are re-arranging deck chairs on the Titanic - extend and pretend

* The markets are higher - the euro down big

* The market is anticipating more cheap money, which would be threatened by a Grexit

* In an ideal world, if Greece were to leave the Eurozone and set themselves up as a bastion of free market capitalism, then they could come back strong

* Given the electorate, this move is unlikely

* Socialism only works in Greece as long as they have another country's money

* The sell-off in gold based on the Fed's dovish statements last week

* The Fed will only raise interest rates nominally in order to keep the market from balance sheet expansion stimulus into its calculations

* Good news from housing numbers - a surge in the Northeast

* Mortgage rates have been rising, although still low. Some buyers are worried about higher rates

* Higher rates, however would price buyers out of the market

* Monday Chicago Fed National Activity Index came in at -.17, continuing a downtrend consistent with a recession

* May Durable Goods down 1.8% three times lower than expectations

* X transportation met recently reduced expectations

* Durable goods has missed for 5 out of the last 7 moths

* Chicago PMI Manufacturing weaker than expected decrease to 53.4 - now at the lowest level since October 2013

* Manufacturing and production data sis weak - housing numbers are getting a boost from interest rate expectations

* Home ownership rate continues to fall

* Rents are rising


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