The Peter Schiff Show Podcast

Markets have been volatile but economic data still looking bad

Chicago Fed National Activity Index: contrary to expectations, came in at -.42 in addition a downward correction for last week to a 2-year low

Weekly Redbook Same Store Sales Survey down to lowest annual increase in 4 years with a dramatic rate of decline in recent months

Implausible excuses, such as the weather or the timing of Easter, attempt to mask the fact that the economy is just weak

Oil prices moved above $57, forming a sizable W-bottom

Canadian dollar up about 5%

Canadian inflation, especially food prices up

This signals the end of rate-cutting cycle in Canada

Central banks around the world are going to have to dial back on their cheap money policies

The "Threat of Deflation" will be in the rear view mirror

Central banks may like high prices, but consumers don't

President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Eric Rosengren stated our 2% inflation goal is "too low"

He thinks higher inflation allows for more growth, and allows interest rates to remain low

Cheap money does not create economic growth and doesn't create employment - it undermines both

Cheap money applied to a slower economy creates a vicious cycle

A weakening dollar will put upward pressure on already rising consumer prices

The Fed is hinting at a higher inflation goal

The problem is we can't do anything about our inflation because our debt is out of control

Fiscally solvent countries are able to raise rates and still service their debt

All the U.S. can do is "talk tough"

If they had a "Hall of Economists" in Disneyland, the Keynesians would have to be in Fantasyland

Paul Krugman's Keynesian experiment is blowing up the U.S. economy

Everybody will figure it out before Paul Krugman does

* Disney's theme parks are a monument to capitalism as it existed when Walt Disney envisioned Disneyland

* The Hall of Presidents, however manages to honor presidents who supported big government over the free market

* The choice of presidents demonstrates revisionist history that supports the liberal, big-government narrative

* Whenever you expand government you contract liberty

* The Dow ended the week down 279 points; NASDAQ down 75

* The search is on for excuses but the real issue is not global causes but U.S. economic performance

* Housing Starts and Permits were way below estimates

* Jobless claims were higher than expected

* Leading Economic Indicators weaker than expected this month after last month's downward revision

* Core CPI came in twice expectations, but described as "better than expected"

* The dollar had a very weak week; Canadian dollar had strongest week in years, with a possible rally going forward

* Weakness in Stock Market, continuing weak economic data makes June rate hike less and less likely in the minds of traders

* The most prominent poster boy for the myth of the U.S. economic recovery, Paul Krugman, recently published an article claiming victory for U.S. Keynesian economic policy

* Krugman claims U.S. is performing better than Europe due to Keynesian policies

* Perception is not reality: the U.S. is not doing as well as Krugman would have us believe

* Krugman references an article by Germany Finance Minister Wolfgang Shauble, criticizing him for rejecting macroeconomics

* Macroeconomics IS B.S. and should be rejected

* Krugman infers that Europe's woes are the result of rejecting Keynesianism

* Shauble warns against going for the "quick fix" of Keynesian policies

* Germany understands that austerity, rather than debt, is the answer

* Krugman believes we should continue to create bubbles through stimulus and debt

* It will be interesting to see what Krugman says when the U.S. economy slips back to recession as Europe grows

* Europe's approach was not perfect, but it is better than the politically expedient solution championed by Krugman


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Disney's theme parks are a monument to capitalism as it existed when Walt Disney envisioned Disneyland

The Hall of Presidents, however manages to honor presidents who supported big government over the free market

The choice of presidents demonstrates revisionist history that supports the liberal, big-government narrative

Whenever you expand government you contract liberty

The Dow ended the week down 279 points; NASDAQ down 75

The search is on for excuses but the real issue is not global causes but U.S. economic performance

Housing Starts and Permits were way below estimates

Jobless claims were higher than expected

Leading Economic Indicators weaker than expected this month after last month's downward revision

Core CPI came in twice expectations, but described as "better than expected"

The dollar had a very weak week; Canadian dollar had strongest week in years, with a possible rally going forward

Weakness in Stock Market, continuing weak economic data makes June rate hike less and less likely in the minds of traders

The most prominent poster boy for the myth of the U.S. economic recovery, Paul Krugman, recently published an article claiming victory for U.S. Keynesian economic policy

Krugman claims U.S. is performing better than Europe due to Keynesian policies

Perception is not reality: the U.S. is not doing as well as Krugman would have us believe

Krugman references an article by Germany Finance Minister Wolfgang Shauble, criticizing him for rejecting macroeconomics

Macroeconomics IS B.S. and should be rejected

Krugman infers that Europe's woes are the result of rejecting Keynesianism

Shauble warns against going for the "quick fix" of Keynesian policies

Germany understands that austerity, rather than debt, is the answer

Krugman believes we should continue to create bubbles through stimulus and debt

It will be interesting to see what Krugman says when the U.S. economy slips back to recession as Europe grows

Europe's approach was not perfect, but it is better than the politically expedient solution championed by Krugman

* Dollar usually drops on bad news but rallies because traders automatically buy on the dip

* Bad news is dismissed because the first quarter "doesn't count"

* This puts greater pressure on the last 3 quarters to make up for the first quarter and still show growth

* Expectations of a bump similar to last year are based on non-repeatable conditions - Obamacare and inventory build

* Inventory to sales ratio is the highest it has been since 2009

* What is the basis for dismissal of the bad news in Q1?

* Data confirms that the consumer is already broke

* Consumers will be hit with rising oil prices

* Traders who are loading up on the dollar are ignoring all the evidence that they are wrong

* The wake-up call will be like the sub-prime mortgage crisis

* The same thing will happen in the Foreign Exchange Markets when they realize the story is not about a recovery but about another round of QE

* Changing trend coming in the dollar

* Changing trend in the oil market

* Changing trend in the gold market

* If we don't get a recovery in the summer how is the Fed going to raise rates in Q4?

* Election year 2016 will likely see no rate hikes

* Retail Sales missed Wall Street expectations with a bounce of only .9

* March Small Business Optimism fell to lowest level in 9 months

* Hiring Plans dropped to lowest level in 6 months

* Business Inventories for February rose to .3 based on weak wholesale sales

* Inventory to Sales Ratio holding at 1.36 (highest since July of 2009)

* My radio broadcasts from a year ago predicted that the data was not reflecting reality

* April Empire State Manufacturing Index missed expectations at -1.9, near a 2-year low

* Employment down

* Hours worked down

* New orders down to 3-year lows

* Prices paid went up

* March Industrial Production dropped .6, missing expectations - 4th consecutive month below estimate

* This news can't be blamed on April showers

* Those who have been betting on the recovery are about to realize they made the wrong bet


Our Sponsors:
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Dollar usually drops on bad news but rallies because traders automatically buy on the dip

Bad news is dismissed because the first quarter "doesn't count"

This puts greater pressure on the last 3 quarters to make up for the first quarter and still show growth

Expectations of a bump similar to last year are based on non-repeatable conditions - Obamacare and inventory build

Inventory to sales ratio is the highest it has been since 2009

What is the basis for dismissal of the bad news in Q1?

Data confirms that the consumer is already broke

Consumers will be hit with rising oil prices

Traders who are loading up on the dollar are ignoring all the evidence that they are wrong

The wake-up call will be like the sub-prime mortgage crisis

The same thing will happen in the Foreign Exchange Markets when they realize the story is not about a recovery but about another round of QE

Changing trend coming in the dollar

Changing trend in the oil market

Changing trend in the gold market

If we don't get a recovery in the summer how is the Fed going to raise rates in Q4?

Election year 2016 will likely see no rate hikes

Retail Sales missed Wall Street expectations with a bounce of only .9

March Small Business Optimism fell to lowest level in 9 months

Hiring Plans dropped to lowest level in 6 months

Business Inventories for February rose to .3 based on weak wholesale sales

Inventory to Sales Ratio holding at 1.36 (highest since July of 2009)

My radio broadcasts from a year ago predicted that the data was not reflecting reality

April Empire State Manufacturing Index missed expectations at -1.9, near a 2-year low

Employment down

Hours worked down

New orders down to 3-year lows

Prices paid went up

March Industrial Production dropped .6, missing expectations - 4th consecutive month below estimate

This news can't be blamed on April showers

Those who have been betting on the recovery are about to realize they made the wrong bet

* Markets continue to rally worldwide

* Record highs overseas - much more action in Asia

* Markets riding a sea of liquidity

* Gold had an interesting week, closing at 1207

* The dollar had one of its best weeks in months

* In terms of other currencies gold was at a 2-year high

* This means that the euphoria about the dollar is not universally shared

* Commodities in general were up - crude oil was up - holding above 50

* This is a good indication of a solid bottom on the price of gold

* Traders continuing to make bullish dollar bets in the face of bad economic data

* Traders are willing to throw out the first quarter - regardless the excuse

* The bounceback from Q1 2014 was due to reasons that will not be repeated

* Obamacare created a huge rush to sign up

* There was a big inventory build anticipating future sales

* Bets for a 2015 Q2-3 rebound are based on optimism for consumer spending

* February Revolving Credit tumbled by $3.7 billion

* Non-Revolving Credit surged $19.2 billion - mostly student loans

* Consumers are cash poor, yet Wall Street believes they will start buying when the temperature rises

* Government under-reporting student loan defaults due to forbearances

* Wednesday release of FOMC minutes encouraged the dollar speculators because there were discussions about higher interest rates in June

* Currency traders still haven't figured out the the Fed's comments are all theater

* They are playing the game based on FedSpeak until it falls apart

* A drastic turn in the FOREX markets will take a lot of people down with it

* February Wholesale Trade declined again after January reported biggest decline in 6 years

* This marks the first 3-month decline since 2008 financial crisis

* Inventories rose slightly because of decline in sales

* Inventory to Sales Ratio at 1.29 - highest since 2008 financial crisis

* 2014 GDP increase was due to rush to build inventory in anticipation of recovery

* Bottom line: economic data shows that a second-quarter bounce in the GDP is just wishful thinking

* Ben Bernanke's new book titled "The Courage to Act" belongs in the fiction section

* Let historians justify his role in history - it is far to early to claim success

* This is the same guy who was blind-sided by the 2008 financial crisis

* He claimed courageous decisions in the face of critics, while actually putting politics and the banks ahead of the country

* His book may be coming out on eve of next economic fire that he set


Our Sponsors:
* Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.com
* Check out Plaud AI and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.plaud.ai


Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Markets continue to rally worldwide

Record highs overseas - much more action in Asia

Markets riding a sea of liquidity

Gold had an interesting week, closing at 1207

The dollar had one of its best weeks in months

In terms of other currencies gold was at a 2-year high

This means that the euphoria about the dollar is not universally shared

Commodities in general were up - crude oil was up - holding above 50

This is a good indication of a solid bottom on the price of gold

Traders continuing to make bullish dollar bets in the face of bad economic data

Traders are willing to throw out the first quarter - regardless the excuse

The bounceback from Q1 2014 was due to reasons that will not be repeated

Obamacare created a huge rush to sign up

There was a big inventory build anticipating future sales

Bets for a 2015 Q2-3 rebound are based on optimism for consumer spending

February Revolving Credit tumbled by $3.7 billion

Non-Revolving Credit surged $19.2 billion - mostly student loans

Consumers are cash poor, yet Wall Street believes they will start buying when the temperature rises

Government under-reporting student loan defaults due to forbearances

Wednesday release of FOMC minutes encouraged the dollar speculators because there were discussions about higher interest rates in June

Currency traders still haven't figured out the the Fed's comments are all theater

They are playing the game based on FedSpeak until it falls apart

A drastic turn in the FOREX markets will take a lot of people down with it

February Wholesale Trade declined again after January reported biggest decline in 6 years

This marks the first 3-month decline since 2008 financial crisis

Inventories rose slightly because of decline in sales

Inventory to Sales Ratio at 1.29 - highest since 2008 financial crisis

2014 GDP increase was due to rush to build inventory in anticipation of recovery

Bottom line: economic data shows that a second-quarter bounce in the GDP is just wishful thinking

Ben Bernanke's new book titled "The Courage to Act" belongs in the fiction section

Let historians justify his role in history - it is far to early to claim success

This is the same guy who was blind-sided by the 2008 financial crisis

He claimed courageous decisions in the face of critics, while actually putting politics and the banks ahead of the country

His book may be coming out on eve of next economic fire that he set

* Big double standard in the media regarding "sexism"

* Rolling Stone story based on complete fiction about a woman who claimed she was raped in a fraternity house

* The reporter accepted the woman's story without checking sources

* After the facts were out, the reporter apologized to everyone except the men who were falsely accused and the fraternity involved

* Where is the outrage that the real victims did not receive an apology?

* Is it sexist to assume that men do not deserve apologies when wrongly accused?

* The reporter refuses to condemn the woman who lied

* The primary apology must go to the wrongly accused, the fraternity and to the university


Our Sponsors:
* Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.com
* Check out Plaud AI and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.plaud.ai


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* Media's take: Why run for President if you can't win?

* "He's too Libertarian to win"

* "He is not as Libertarian as his father"

* "Rand Paul is closer to the mainstream than his father"

* His chances are as good as anyone's at this point

* He is actually closer to his father than he is to the mainstream

* If you like Ron Paul, how can you not like his son?

* Rand will maintain his father's supporters

* There are a lot of Libertarian Republicans, and Rand will attract most of those votes

* Rand has a chance to win in 2016 and in 2020

* If he wins, he will maintain his strong principles


Our Sponsors:
* Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.com
* Check out Plaud AI and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.plaud.ai


Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Media's take: Why run for President if you can't win?

"He's too Libertarian to win"

"He is not as Libertarian as his father"

"Rand Paul is closer to the mainstream than his father"

His chances are as good as anyone's at this point

He is actually closer to his father than he is to the mainstream

If you like Ron Paul, how can you not like his son?

Rand will maintain his father's supporters

There are a lot of Libertarian Republicans, and Rand will attract most of those votes

Rand has a chance to win in 2016 and in 2020

If he wins, he will maintain his strong principles