(10/17/23) Earnings Season is in full swing, with Big Banks reporting this week. More interesting than earnings results will be forward outlooks. The unknown is the unintended consequences of COVID-era government funding that has yet to be spent: Those funds could prevent a recession, and even provide the mythical "soft landing" or NO landing the Fed would like to see. Meanwhile, markets continue to consolidate, not going anywhere in a hurry. Three reasons investors under-perform: The Law of Unintended Consequences. A look at the Valuation to Volatility Ratio, and exceptions to the rule. Are consumers still committing "revenge spending" in a post-pandemic economy? Earnings results will ultimately depend upon employment. The slide to 2% inflation doesn't mean prices will come down; the risk of predictions. SEG-1: Why Forward Guidance Matters More than Earnings SEG-2: The Law of Unintended Consequences SEG-3: Valuations, Volatility, and Thomas the Train SEG-4: Revenge Spending & Corporate Earnings Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel:   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ruR9XJGuRFY&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Managers' Repositioning to Drive Markets to Year's End" is here:   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eKhAebIm9J8&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Fear & Loathing on Wall Street" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CEdbEYdVao0&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Articles Mentioned in this Show: "Consequences Are Always Unintended" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/consequences-are-always-unintended/ "October Weakness Before The Year-End Run?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/october-weakness-before-the-year-end-run/ ------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- Watch our past Candid Coffee: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sdi_-TQpNb8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugq7q4XzOcad3oSN5Z1Zd-Z&index=1&t=2s ------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #IsraelWar #UkraineWar #MarketSentiment #Employment #Geopolitics #EconomicRecession #Markets #Money #Investing

(10/17/23) Markets bounced right off the 20-DMA on Monday; the 50- and 200-DMA are the next cluster of resistance markets must move through in order to achieve a higher level by the end of the year. Markets are still compressing between two levels of resistance and support, and remain concerned about what's happening overseas. As earnings season progresses, however, that will more and more drive markets. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO  Produced by Brent Clanton --------  Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dsERvxtFfMo&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Consequences Are Always Unintended" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/consequences-are-always-unintended/ "October Weakness Before The Year-End Run?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/october-weakness-before-the-year-end-run/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketCompression #EarningsSeason #EndOfYear #PortfolioPositioning #Israel #EnergyPrices #Markets #Money #Investing

(10/16/23) The Israel & Ukraine wars are creating international fear, while domestically, US consumer sentiment is sinking as economic realities of higher interest rates and student loan payments resume. Big Banks' earnings season beginning this week; generally, earnings are down about 3% when Tech and Energy are not included; market futures are flat this morning after declining performance last Thursday and Friday; year-end repositioning is getting underway; the impact of geo-political outlooks; economic reports & sampling methodology; the smaller the sample, the less-reliable the results. ADP Employment Report vs BLS shows large divergences: Which one is correct? WW3: possible, but how probable? Will there or Won't there be a recession? Target vs Dollar General: Consumer spending stratified; the bottom 80% of consumers are struggling. what are the smartest guys in the room saying? The risk of following the analysts: What if they're wrong? Navigating markets w conflicting data; the fallacy of passive investing. What happens when sellers aren't willing to sell...until prices go up. What makes markets work. Too fearful = near the bottom; too greedy = near the top. Dichotomies of Stapes vs Discretionary,   algorithm-driven markets; headlines vs market positioning. SEG-1: Fear & Loathing on Wall Street: Israel, Ukraine, & Domestic Economics SEG-2: The Impact of Geopolitical Outlooks SEG-3: Recession: Will there or won't there? SEG-4: The Difficulty of Navigating Markets w Conflicting Data Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel:   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CEdbEYdVao0&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Managers' Repositioning to Drive Markets to Year's End" is here:   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eKhAebIm9J8&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "When Life Gets In the Way of Retirement" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=81e323A2kv8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Articles Mentioned in this Show: "October Weakness Before The Year-End Run?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/october-weakness-before-the-year-end-run/ ------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- Watch our past Candid Coffee: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sdi_-TQpNb8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugq7q4XzOcad3oSN5Z1Zd-Z&index=1&t=2s ------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #IsraelWar #UkraineWar #MarketSentiment #Employment #Geopolitics #EconomicRecession #Markets #Money #Investing

(10/16/23) Markets ended their two-week rally, falling on Thursday and Friday and running right into the convergence of the 50- and 100-DMA's and came to rest atop the 200-DMA. Market futures are flat this morning, interest rates are rising, and the Dow is elevated, thanks to energy stocks' response to the war in Israel. It is entirely possible markets could re-test the 200-DMA today, as markets pull-back. That would set markets up for yet another rally as we get into November/December.  While markets are doing what they're doing, pay attention to a downtrend channel. There's nothing of particular note to be concerned about; the MACD Buy-signal is in place against a backdrop of negative positioning currently. Many managers are off-sides and under-weight in stocks, and their adjustments before year-end will affect market dynamics heading into the final months of the year. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO  Produced by Brent Clanton --------  Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eKhAebIm9J8&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "October Weakness Before The Year-End Run?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/october-weakness-before-the-year-end-run/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #EndOfYear #PortfolioPositioning #Israel #EnergyPrices #Markets #Money #Investing

(10/13/23) The value of delayed gratification is observed in the orgy of early holiday decorations and Rich's self-control involving candy corn math; a discussion of CPI, inflation, and sticky prices. Breakfast cereal inflation, candy corn pumpkins, and recovering from financial shocks in Retirement: Rethinking allocations. Interest rates and Bond pricing; safe havens: Where are all the crypto fans now? The DAD Retirement Plan (and living inside Lance's head); more than half of retirees are working in retirement. Re-defining Retirement & the value of older workers. Working longer is not a death-sentence. Social Security COLA +3.4% vs Medicare premium increase = +6%. 9 surprises in Retirement: Taxes, healthcare expenses, and more. SEG-1: Holiday's, Candy Corn Math, & Delayed Gratification SEG-2: Breakfast Cereal & Candy Corn Math; Recovering from Financial Shock in Retirement SEG-3: The DAD Retirement Plan (re-defining Retirement) SEG-4: 9 Surprises in Retirement Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel:   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=81e323A2kv8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Supply Build Causes Oil Price Drop" is here:   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LDaVn-TQ7M0&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Has the Fed Shifted Tone?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6olv5z7fy-c&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=3s -------- Articles Mentioned in this Show: Janet Yellen Suggests Much Lower For Much Longer https://realinvestmentadvice.com/janet-yellen-suggests-much-lower-for-much-longer/ "Bond Valuations Are Cheap" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/bond-valuations-are-cheap/ ------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- Watch our past Candid Coffee: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sdi_-TQpNb8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugq7q4XzOcad3oSN5Z1Zd-Z&index=1&t=2s ------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #Retirement #Healthcare #SocialSecurity #PPI #CPI #Inflation #Markets #Money #Investing

(10/12/23) Healthcare, Israel, & Fed Minutes: Anticipating today's CPI report (clocking-in at a hotter-than-expected .4%); the sharp changes in oil prices and interest rates; CPI Preview: The Monthly Moment. PPI hotter than expected .3%; Fed minutes reveal nothing new. The need for EOY performance: Career preservation for managers. Changes in financial tightening and oil prices are a result in shifts in Fed tone. Markets are moving into seasonally strong period of the year. Falce narrative: No one wants our debt. Why China has to use the dollar. SEG-1: Healthcare, Israel, & Fed Minutes SEG-2: The Subtle Shift in Fed Tone SEG-3: Markets Move Into Seasonally strong Period of the Year SEG-4: Birkenstocks: Trend or Fad? Why Yields Are Going Up Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel:   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6olv5z7fy-c&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=3s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Supply Build Causes Oil Price Drop" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0XhS6bpASeU&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LDaVn-TQ7M0&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Israel Conflict Ignites Flight to Safety" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W1PA85k5RgM&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s -------- Articles Mentioned in this Show: Bond Valuations Are Cheap https://realinvestmentadvice.com/bond-valuations-are-cheap/ ------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- REGISTER for our next Luinch & Learn: "Transitioning to Medicare:" https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3416958364820/WN_Gl2MmDeYR3CrRA11NmC1dQ ------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #Healthcare #ObamaCare #IsraelWar #FederalReserve #PPI #CPI #Inflation #OilPrices #Markets #Money #Investing

(10/12/23) Markets have essentially shunned the war in Israel this week, thus far. Wednesday's Producer Price Index (PPI) did come in a bit hotter-than-expected, and the Fed Minutes released yesterday talked about higher-for-longer interest rates. All this data has become moot in the face of a sharp drop in Crude Oil prices following another big build in supplies. Interest Rates made another sharp move higher, pleasing the Fed in its quest to quell inflation. Interest Rates are testing the 20-DMA, the trend for rates since the higher acceleration. Lower rates will translate into higher Bond prices. With the markets now moving into the seasonally-strong period of the year, the MACD Buy signal has been triggered, suggesting higher stock prices moving forward. We're looking for a stronger rally in the index, despite resistance at 4,380. Other technical indicators also suggest this market wants to go higher. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO  Produced by Brent Clanton --------  Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0XhS6bpASeU&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #InterestRates #CrudeOil #EnergyPrices #PPI #CPI #Markets #Money #Investing

(10/10/23) A brief look at the correlation between Israeli conflict and markets' flight to safety in US bonds. Markets could target 4,300; earnings season kicks off today. Potential Spam calls; the thing about Bonds: They're the simplest, yet least-understood investment. What interest rates mean; Sin stocks, ESG, & FAANG stocks: knowing the narrative. Stocks vs Bonds & relative valuations (with charts!) What Howard Marks said; Why interest rates and bond yields go up and down; psychology is a difficult factor in portfolio management. RFK, Jr. & The Perot Effect in the 2024 election; preview of our 2024 Economic Summit (January 27, 2024) A discussion on Mortgage-backed Securities in portfolios (you're basically buying someone's mortgage). How high rates create opportunities: mortgage refinancing. NAR letter to the Fed: "Lower rates so we can sell houses." SEG-1: Israeli Conflict Ingnites Flight to Safety in US Bonds SEG-2: Marital Affairs, Potential Spam, & The Thing About Bonds SEG-3: Sin Stocks, EGS, & Faang Stocks vs Bonds SEG-4: RFK, Jr., & The Perot Effect; Mortgage-baked Securities in Portfolios Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel:   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W1PA85k5RgM&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Market Impact of the Israeli Conflict" is here:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LDaVn-TQ7M0&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "The Disconnect Between Pre-retirement & Reality" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kaEEQktBjcw&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Articles Mentioned in this Show: Bond Valuations Are Cheap https://realinvestmentadvice.com/bond-valuations-are-cheap/ ------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- REGISTER for our next Luinch & Learn: "Transitioning to Medicare:" https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3416958364820/WN_Gl2MmDeYR3CrRA11NmC1dQ ------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #IsraelConflict #FlightToSafety #USTreasuries #Bonds #MortgageBackedSecurities  #Markets #Money #Investing

(10/10/23) What is happening overseas has not changed the context or tenor of the markets. Wall Street opened lower and then recovered, as markets assessed the global risks from the conflict in Israel. We're looking for a bit of a push higher past resistance this morning, looking for a challenge of the 20-DMA right out of the gate this morning. Look for trapped investors to sell as we near that next resistance level. Note: Earnings season begins anew today with Pepsi's report, followed by airlines and the big banks later in the week. Focus will shift from international intrigue to corporate earnings. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO  Produced by Brent Clanton --------  Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LDaVn-TQ7M0&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #GlobalRisk #CorporateEarnings #Israel #Hammas #Markets #Money #Investing

Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Sr. Advisors Danny Ratliff, CFP, and Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Flirt w 200-DMA" is here:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LcFbmAvj678&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz ------- Our previous show is here: "2% Inflation is a Misnomer" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J5tdltYCgDg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=9s -------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- REGISTER for our next Luinch & Learn: "Transitioning to Medicare:" https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3416958364820/WN_Gl2MmDeYR3CrRA11NmC1dQ ------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #PreRetirement #SocialSecurity #Medicare #PostPandemic #MoneyScript #Markets #Money #Investing