The Red Line

Argentina's incoming president, Milei, was queried about reclaiming the Falkland Islands for Argentina, following the path of his predecessors by vowing to seek their reclamation. These claims, coupled with intense media scrutiny, have fueled increasing speculation about a potential second invasion of the Falkland Islands. But are these speculations well-founded, or merely ongoing rhetoric? Will these threats intensify into a more significant conflict between Argentina and the UK, and if so, how might such a conflict unfold? We present these questions to our panel of experts: On the panel this week: - Tim Fish (Shepherd Land Systems) - Wilder Alejandro Sanchez (Second Floor Strategies) - Kevin Fleming (Kings College London) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 03:00 PART 2 - 22:32 PART 3 - 33:15 Outro - 45:09 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepod For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/

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As unrest simmers throughout the Middle East, echoes of the initial Arab Spring resonate amid similar economic triggers, fueling speculation about a potential second wave. Many are beginning to ask: Is a second Arab Spring on the horizon? Where is the spark likely to come from, and have the governments in the region fortified their strategies to quell such popular uprisings? We put these questions and more to our panel of experts: On the panel this week: - David Schenker (Washington Inst) - Michael Sexton (Third Way National Security) - Rich Outzen (Atlantic Council) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 03:07 PART 2 - 22:00 PART 3 - 42:22 Outro - 1:01:55 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepod For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/

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The unsettling trend of Extrajudicial Killings is on the rise. A method once used mainly by the US and Russia is now being increasingly adopted by many more countries, mostly targeting defectors and opposition living abroad. With these methods ostensibly looking like a path for governments to end their most vocal opposition without consequences, the appeal is certainly clear. However, some worry that the normalization of these incidents may lead to a future where killings of controversial figures become more and more frequent on a global scale? We put this to our panel of experts. On the panel this week: - Sean McFate (Georgetown) - Andrei Soldatov (CEPA) - Greg Miller (Washington Post) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 06:38 PART 2 - 28:22 PART 3 - 52:02 Outro - 1:02:18 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepod For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/

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Hong Kong, is witnessing an unprecedented erosion of its "One Country, Two Systems" framework, as China tightens its grip on the region. The once clear demarcation of autonomy is now blurred, with pro-democracy aspirations clashing against Beijing's relentless advance. Beijing economically needs Hong Kong to remain open to the West, but politically worries about its effect on the mainland. So this week we sit down with our panel of distinguished experts, to unravel the complexities of this delicate situation, explore the implications of China’s moves here in Hong Kong and shed light on the intricate web of illicit financial flows and covert operations in play. On the panel this week:  - John Fowler (International Intrigue) - John Coyne (ASPI) - Dan Harris (Harris Sliwoski) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 04:37 PART 2 - 21:43 PART 3 - 37:20 Outro - 57:14 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepod For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/

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Moldova, flanked by the complex dynamics of Eastern Europe, currently stands at a critical juncture in its geopolitical fate, as the simmering conflict in Transnistria, exasperated by the recent upheavals in Ukraine, has crafted a unique tableau of challenges and opportunities for both sides. Moldova's conventional forces and Transnistria's Russian-backed units each face unique pressures and advantages in this evolving context and both Moldova and Transnistria are being nudged into recalibrating their strategies or risk being swept into the storm of wider regional strife. Will Moldova's military reforms lend them a crucial edge, will the Transnistria conflict ignite into a full-blown confrontation, and how does the broadening Eastern European turmoil shape this potential flashpoint? To answer that we turn to our panel of experts: On the panel this week:  - James Ker-Lindsay (Uni of Kent) - Dan Darling (Forecast International) - Stephen Blank (FPRI) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 04:07 PART 2 - 23:06 PART 3 - 49:09 Outro - 58:55 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepod For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/

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Iran, ensnared by its mountainous borders, now faces multifaceted threats from all directions and their strategic position is becoming increasingly perilous along every axis. Neighbours like Azerbaijan and Pakistan now pose mounting challenges to national stability, while inaction also risks problems fermenting elsewhere. As Iran's now overstretched military copes with multiple engagements across the region already, the Iranian military, defence industry and IRCG are being warned that they must undergo structural reforms or be crushed from all sides. But will the Iranian military embrace the reforms, will recent tensions in the Caucasus draw Iran into the conflict, and would a deepening relationship with Russia or China salvage Iran's hard-fought strategic gains? We ask our panel of experts On the panel this week:  Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 02:45 PART 2 - 28:46 PART 3 - 50:56 Outro - 67:23 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepod For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/

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Once the murder capital of the world, El Salvador finds itself grappling with both gang violence and geopolitical shifts. Between 2013 and 2016, murder rates soared due to gang wars and systemic extortion. President Nayib Bukele, emerging from this tumult, removes the safety catches from the government and actually tackles the issue. However, all of this is coming at a long-term cost. How does Bukele's regional vision mesh with the complexities of Central American geopolitics, and does this new path set Bukele on a collision course with the US? Join us as we dissect El Salvador's evolving position on the world stage. On the panel this week are: - Robert Guest (The Economist) - Nik McNally (The Red Line) - Margaret Myers (Inter-American Dialogue) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 02:04 PART 2 - 24:29 PART 3 - 42:59 Outro - 54:44 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepod For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/

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The potential conflict between India and Pakistan stands at a precipice of alarming complexity, as the two nuclear-armed neighbours navigate a tangled web of historical tensions, territorial disputes, and geopolitical ambitions, and with India's rapidly evolving military capabilities and strategic partnerships, the landscape of South Asian defence dynamics is shifting. The theoretical pitfalls of a confrontation between these nations would have far-reaching implications, not just for the subcontinent, but for the global order. From cyber warfare to conventional battles, what would a war between India and Pakistan entail? We ask our panel of experts to unpack the scenarios, strategies, and stakes posed by this conflict: On the panel this week: - Chris Clary (Uni of Albany) - Arzan Tarapore (CISC) - Christine Fair (Georgetown) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 03:01 PART 2 - 30:40 PART 3 - 53:51 Outro - 1:13:51 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepod For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/

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The economic feasibility of Nuclear Power is under an unprecedented microscope, with evolving energy solutions and changing market dynamics, the mathematical foundation that once supported the nuclear industry's robustness is now slipping. While traditional energy giants like the US, France, and Russia grapple with the shifting sands of economic viability, emergent green energy leaders are questioning the place of nuclear power in tomorrow's energy mosaic. Is nuclear energy a mere bridging solution in our transition to a carbon-neutral future, or is it an unsustainable relic of the past? We ask our panel of experts: On the panel this week: - Paul Dorfman (SPRU) - David Schlissel (IEEFA) - James Acton (CEIP) Intro: 00:00 PART 1: 05:32 PART 2: 22:30 PART 3: 33:56 Outro: 52:50 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepod For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/

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UUVs or Unmanned Underwater Vehicles, are set to make the same kind of impact that UAVs previously made on the modern battlefield. With their vast operational capacities and affordable price tags, we are not only seeing major players like the US, Russia, and China engaged in a dire dash for future ocean supremacy, but also several smaller players who previously were locked out of the subsurface battlespace due to the high costs of conventional submarines. Will these new weapons serve merely as long-range recon vehicles for the major powers, or will UUVs be at the forefront of seabed warfare and underwater infrastructure sabotage? We ask our panel of experts.

On the panel this week:

• H. I. Sutton (Covert Shores)
• Samuel Bendett (CNA)
• Bruce Jones (Brookings Inst.)

Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 04:06 PART 2 - 31:13 PART 3 - 47:51 Outro - 64:42

Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus

Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepodcast For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/

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