The Red Line

China appears to be sleepwalking toward a conflict over Taiwan, and in response, East Asia has begun to prepare for a war that could start as early as 2026. Whilst some like Japan are buying up unnamed vehicles to adapt to their growing demographic crises, other nations like South Korea have become leading arms exporters across the globe. Is the war in Taiwan inevitable, is Japan's rearmament strategy likely to come to fruition in time, and how is the US readying itself for the conflict that will dictate the geopolitical trajectory of East Asia for the next three decades? We ask our panel of experts On the panel this week: - Tim Heath (RAND) - Daniel Darling (Forecast International) - Mark Cancian (CSIS) Intro = 00:00 PART 1 = 05:39 PART 2 = 33:03 PART 3 = 51:36 Conc = 1:09:41 Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Follow the Show on @TheRedLinePod For more information, please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com

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The war in Ukraine completely changed how Europe saw its own defence, and once against the continent is beginning to scramble to hastily rearm and modernise its defence industries. The question being asked by several analysts though, is whether Europe is rearming for the right war? Whilst the tanks the UK, France and Germany are fast-tracking are optimal for the battlefields of Eastern Ukraine, they are of little use for future conflicts in the jungles of Mali, the foothills of the Balkans or even the beaches of Taiwan. Is Europe once again preparing to fight the last war? On the panel this week:  - Neil Melvin (RUSI) - Alex Clarkson (Kings College) - Perun (Defense Analyst) - James Black (RAND) Intro = 00:00 PART 1 = 03:51 PART 2 - 29:59 PART 3 = 43:59 PART 4 = 1:05:06 Outro = 1:30:36 Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Follow the Show on @TheRedLinePod For more info please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com

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With demand for oil skyrocketing, the US are now reconsidering the usefulness of Venezuela's massive natural oil reserves. To meet the demand in the market, some in Washington are now even going as far as to propose the beginning of the normalisation of relations between Washington and Venezuela, with oil company Chevron already beginning operations inside the country as a test case. If the process goes ahead, it may signal an end to the US policy of "maximum pressure" throughout the region and the beginning of a region-wide policy shift. But how far will either side be willing to take these talks, and how will Venezuela's current allies in China and Russia react to these developments? We ask our panel of experts.

On the panel this week:  - Phil Gunson (Crisis Group) - Ben Norton (Geopolitical Economy) - Chris Sabatini (Chatham House) Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Follow the Show on @TheRedLinePod For more info please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com

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There are major faultlines appearing within the Chinese economy, particularly within many of the state government's budgets. Large debts are now all coming due, and the leadership in Beijing will be faced with several tough decisions within the next few months. Will Xi choose the plunge the country into a self-imposed, but managed downtown, or will the bubble burst on its own, throwing the country into economic chaos? We sit down with our panel of experts to find out.  On the panel this week:  - Joanna Chiu (Toronto Star) - Logan Wright (Rhodium Group) - David Dollar (Brookings Institute) Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Follow the Show on @TheRedLinePod For more info please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com

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Numerous analysts failed to correctly predict the outcome of a war between Russia and Ukraine, with many anticipating Russia would conquer Ukraine within a matter of weeks. Some analysts, though, the ones watching Syria closely, could see the fractures in the Russian army beforehand, and these analysts are now watching Syria closely again. With Russia's position inside the country shifting quickly, will the Kremlin continue to pilot the country's decade-long civil war, or are other players beginning to move into the growing power vacuum? Can the Russian operations here in Syria once again show us the future of Ukraine? We ask our panel of experts.

On the panel this week: - Joanne H Cummings (Baylor Uni) - Rich Outzen (Atlantic Council) - Wladimir Van Wilgenburg (Journalist) - Charles Lister (MEI) Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus For more info please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com

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North Korea, a nation whose GDP is equivalent to that of the small island of Jamaica, has tested a record amount of missiles this year. With these increasing tests, there is a worry that they will build upon this momentum, and in the future, pose a credible threat to the United States itself. In response to this, several prominent figures have been calling for the US to preempt this event, and carry out an invasion of the DPRK, solving the issue once and for all. But how difficult would an invasion be, is the cost worth it, and will a conflict here pull the rest of the region in with it? We ask our panel of experts On the panel this week: - Bruce Bennett (RAND) - Chad O'Carroll (NKNews) - Michael Green (CSIS) Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus For more info please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com

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This year Russia has watched their geopolitical position within the region sink from bad to worse, and now there is a brand new issue facing Moscow, with the Russian version of NATO, the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organisation), facing a crisis of confidence. After Azerbaijan called Russia's bluff in the Caucasus, the world now knows the core of the CSTO treaty is worthless. So what happens now, will the organisation disband, will an outside power like China take over the reins, or will it simply continue to evaporate slowly? We ask our panel of experts:

On the panel this week: - Steven Pifer (Stanford) - Temur Umarov (Carnegie) - Raffaello Pantucci (RSIS) Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus For more info please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com

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There is no greater challenge when it comes to Climate Change than that of the energy transition. For some countries, it will mean investing billions into the modernisation of their power grids, and for other countries, it will mean abandoning the source of revenue responsible for around 80% of thier national GDP. The prominent question in front of these countries now though is will these countries begin preparing for the transition now, or will they be blindsided when the market does it for them?

On the panel this week: - Lou Munden (TMP) - Theresa Sabonis-Helf (Georgetown Uni) - Colby Connelly (EnergyIntel) - John Calabrese (Middle East Inst) - Henry Sanderson (Benchmark Mineral Intel) This episode is Part 5 of 5 of our miniseries, The Green Line, examining the near-term geopolitical implications of Climate Change. Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod

Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus

Follow TMP on @Mission2020s

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Billions of dollars worth of aid have been sent over the recent decades in hopes of building up the developing world, but whether the aid is achieving its stated goals is still up for debate. So this week, we look at how aid is being spent in Africa, how it compares to private funding and foreign loans, and what would need to be changed to make the impact on the ground? On the panel this week: - Max Lawson (Oxfam) - Daron Acemoglu (MIT) - Alex Vines (Chatham House) Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus For more info please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com

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The world is on the precipice of the new revolution in Green Technology, but where do the materials for this Green Tech come from? One of the primary materials required for everything from smartphones to electric vehicle batteries is Cobalt, and silvery-gold looking mineral found primarily in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The DRC holds the vast majority of the world's Cobalt, and the country has become a vital part of the global supply chain, but how safe is that? Are we betting the entire future of Green tech on a country already barreling toward war, floods, and civil conflicts? We ask our panel of experts.

On the panel this week:

Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Follow TMP on @Mission2020s

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