June 30, 2025

This Is Why Empires Fall: Tom Bilyeu Breaks Down Realpolitik, Why History Will Repeat & the Brutal Truth About War | Deep Dive

54 minutes

In today’s episode, Tom pulls back the curtain on the hard truths that shape our world, diving into the bloody history and cold calculations that drive geopolitics. Using the concept of “realpolitik” as his lens, Tom explores why nations act not according to ideals, but ruthless self-interest, and how this approach accurately predicts the cycles of conflict, power struggles, and shifting borders that have marked human history.

From Genghis Khan to today’s nuclear standoffs, Tom examines why humanity’s dual capacity for both devastating violence and breathtaking kindness continues to shape the fate of nations. You’ll learn the nine core tenets of realpolitik, see how power and survival instincts play out on the global stage, and discover why understanding the unvarnished reality of how nations operate is essential—not just for world leaders, but for anyone who wants to protect and thrive in today’s chaotic world.

But this isn’t just a journey through the darkness of history and politics. Tom also shows how culture, empathy, and pragmatism temper our most savage impulses, offering hope even amidst turmoil. By the end, you’ll have a clear-eyed framework for understanding global events, decoding market movements, and safeguarding your freedom in uncertain times.

Get ready to challenge your assumptions and build a worldview that actually works. This episode will change the way you see the world—and your role in it.

00:00 Intro

05:09 Understanding Realpolitik: Power Over Ideals

08:20 Realism: Survival in Global Anarchy

12:10 Realpolitik and Brutal History

15:54 Realpolitik and Historical Ruthlessness

18:45 "Truth Over Idealism"

22:57 "Group Bias from Random Assignment"

25:16 Dual Nature of Humanity

29:57 "Human Nature and Realpolitik"

30:44 "Burnham's Elite-Mass Division Insight"

34:35 NATO Expansion Provokes Russian Response

38:58 US-Iran Relations: Realist Perspective

40:02 U.S.-Iran Conflict: Power Over Ideology

45:47 Power, Freedom, and Realpolitik

46:46 "Predicting Politics Beyond Morality"

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