Good morning friends!

Corn 336’6 (unch)

Beans 955’4 (+1’0)

Chi Wheat 400’0 (-2’0)

KC Wheat 413’0 (-2’4)

Cotton 67.55 -.53

 

Overnight price action was slow and volume was low as the trade had little to adjust after the USDA grain stocks report on Friday.  The report was a yawner, but I think did have some bullish linings for corn.  It won’t make headlines because of the massive harvest we are facing, but the Sep 1 stocks were actually smaller than they were a year ago. Keep in mind the carryout projections for a lot of the year had corn stocks above 2 billion, but demand ate away at that number all year.  Looking forward to NEXT YEAR’s Sep 1 number, the trade is kicking around 2.2 billion.  I would bet its smaller than that one year from now.

Harvest pace will be the story this week in corn and beans, while demand is the story in wheat.  Cotton still has quality questions and a HEFTY spec long position again. The COT data has cotton susceptible to pull backs while corn and wheat markets are poised to short cover if news would support.  Last week the bean shorts awoke, we now have a short position establishing itself in soybeans.  I would think beans have another test of the 100 day near 9.90 if the weather would support, but I would skew my trades to the downside in beans for now.

I remain bearish cotton, bullish corn and wheat and neutral/bearish soybeans.