Good afternoon friends!

Corn  349’0  -5’6

Soybeans  993’2  -18’4

Chi Wheat   414’2  -2’0

KC Wheat 413’6   -1’0,

Cotton  68.20  -.96

 

Markets are down sharply across the board, led by a weak crude oil complex. The price action we have seen since Friday has held, which makes me wonder if this is the market’s eye focusing on a higher probability of a Trump victory.

Fall Crop insurance prices are set at $9.75 for soybeans and $3.49 for corn. The spring issuance price was $3.86 for corn and $8.85 for soybeans. This means that there will be no payout for fall soybeans insurance coverage and very little chance at a corn payout as the higher yield numbers should prevent it. Chalk one up for Uncle Sam.

News has been slow but we are learning a little more about CRP acreage for next year. The US government is capping CRP at where it was last year, which gives the market little chance to shed much acreage going forward in 2017.  Prices are at a point where we would probably see the acreage anyway, but those who were hoping low prices would cure low prices, this is a deterrent.  At 385 Dec 17 corn, we are probably still looking at 90+million acres of corn next year. I dont see a lot of downside in 2017 new crop from these levels.  I’m a buyer in the 370’s for Dec 17 at this juncture and July 17 corn near 350.

Volume is high and the mood in Chicago is sour as the market looks at the election and USDA report out next week.  Soybean yield hikes haven’t been talked about much in recent weeks and with the week basis have been wondering why.  The rally in beans has been primarily spec driven, the downside in soybeans is 940 in the short term.  It took us 3 weeks to get from 940 to 10+, it wont take us that long to get back there.

I look for Dec corn to find some footing in the mid 340’s and Nov 17 soybeans to fall into the 940s. Cotton is poised to retest trend lines near 67 while wheat is now leading the grain complex.  Russian FOB November wheat offers stand at $179, up $1 from last week.