Top Traders Unplugged

TTU25: Why a Mechanical, Long-Term Trend Approach is Best ft. Scot Billington – 1of2


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Our next guest takes a mechanical, long-term trend approach to trading to a new level, and you’ll find out why he thinks it is the better option in this episode. He started Covenant Capital with his business partner in 1999 and has grown it into a profitable boutique firm. But in early 2002 after they ended the previous year down 20%, they really had to grind it out and stick to their guns which ultimately paid off in a big way.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

  • How Scot started his firm, doing the testing by hand.
  • The difference between a discretionary model and a mechanical model and why Scot chose a mechanical one.
  • How he met his business partner Brince Wilford and started with 3 accounts in 1999.
  • How narrative bias can affect a trader’s decisions.
  • How the firm got through a year that ended with them down 20%.
  • What made Scot believe in his model and stick to his guns.
  • The offerings that the firm currently has, including the differences in the trading models.
  • The pitfalls of investing in shorter term models and not allowing managers to see a full cycles with markets.
  • Why most allocators and investors are chasing 24-month returns on stocks and why that may not be the right approach.
  • About different types of CTA firms, including boutiques, battleships, emerging, and experimental.
  • What to look for in a CTA.
  • How to get investors to share the long-term horizon with his firm when certain markets do very well in the short term.

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Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

  • An article on Covenant and Scot Billington in Futures Magazine.
  • Check out Discretionary vs System Trading.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfoliohere.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Top Traders UnpluggedBy Niels Kaastrup-Larsen

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