Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 261

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New Podcast

The CBOT rally refuses to stop and we have the Jan WASDE next week (Jan 12th) at 11 am.  Back in 2007 to 2013 I think all but one of the Jan WASDE reports resulted in limit move in either corn, wheat or soybeans. If the USDA throws a big curve ball at the market I would not be surprised to see a limit move next week.  In this podcast we go over why we are taking some profits heading into the WASDE and what we think about old crop and new crop prices going forward.  I also take a look at our supply and demand tables for both old crop and new crop.  The podcast ran a little long this week but we had a lot to go over.  Make sure you take a listen to our latest Turner’s Take Podcast!

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Supply and Demand Tables

Below are my latest tables for corn and soybeans.  I am assuming we plant 230mm acres of corn + wheat + soybeans this year. That would be the second highest total in the past 20 years.  Only 2014 would be higher after years of high grain prices.  If wheat gets 46mm acres then corn and soybeans have to split 184mm acres.  We’ve decided to split it evenly as most farmers I talk to see both corn and soybeans as attractive crops to plant.  This number can change but you have to start somewhere.

Corn – I think exports go higher and old crop production comes down.  The carryout will be around 1.4 t o1.5 billion. That justifies corn in the mid to high $4s.  If Argentina continues to lose production (exportable bushels) then old crop can break into the low $5s.  The old high from 2014 is around $5.25 and then $5.70 from 2013.

If new crop acres are “only” 92mm and we have a trend line yield around 180 (big number for so many acres), then we only produce as much as we use for new crop.  Stocks are still around 1.6 billion. That means there is no room for error this spring and summer for US production.  Planting and growing weather rallies should be volatile.

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